Stocks
See-saw battle for short term control continues as bears fail to take out the resistance line

Holding of the recent low of 5,171 points is importance as a decisive close below this will ring alarm bells and the efforts of the last couple of weeks will be in vain. Expect selling pressure from the beginning of the coming week

S&P Nifty close: 5322.90

 
Market Trend
Short Term: Sideways        Medium Term: Sideways        Long Term: Down


The Nifty opened the week with an upside gap and rallied exactly into our projected resistance area of 5,372-5,385 points and sold off immediately, thus curtailing the weekly gains to a meagre 27 points (+0.52%). Following the ‘hammer’ last week the Nifty has made a “small body” with a long upper shadow indicating that there is selling pressure at higher levels. It also failed to take out the resistance line (in black) drawn by connecting the recent tops of 5,629 and 5,499 points.

The sectoral indices which outperformed were BSE Consumer Durables (+6.39%), BSE Capital Goods (+3.30%), BSE Power (+3.21%), BSE PSU (+2.07%), BSE Bankex (+1.48%) and BSE Reality (+1.16%) while the gross underperformers were BSE Healthcare (-0.84%), BSE Auto (-0.70%) and BSE Metal (+0.03%).  The weekly histogram MACD continued to move down but is still above the median line indicating that the bulls’ hopes are still alive. However the volumes were poor during the recovery due to the short trading week on account of holidays.

Here are some key levels to watch out for this week
  •  As long as the S&P Nifty stays below 5,327 points (pivot) the bulls would be under pressure even though the intermediate trend is sideways.
  • Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,275 and 5,227 points.
  • Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,375 and 5,427 points.

However there is strong possibility that the volatility might expand and the extremes of the above mentioned range might be exceeded.

Some Observations
1.    The Nifty closed above the pivot of last week but has formed a “small body with a long upper shadow” which implies that there is supply at higher levels.
2.    Weekly averages have become positively phased and a close below them would result in the selling pressure accentuating.
3.    Unless and until the 5,372-5,385 points range is taken out in close the bears will hold the edge and a break of the recent low of 5,171 points (in close) would set the cats amongst the pigeons.

Strategy
The recent tops of 5,378 and 5,499 have to be taken out if the bulls want to turn the tide in their favour. Holding of the recent low of 5,171 points is importance as a decisive close below this will ring alarm bells and the efforts of the last couple of weeks will be in vain. Expect selling pressure from the beginning of the coming week.

(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst & chief strategist at  www.trend4casting.com)

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More trouble for Ghai as CAG raps AP govt over land allotment

Filmmaker Subhash Ghai's film institute is facing trouble in Andhra Pradesh as well over allotment of 20.10 acres of prime land

Hyderabad : Filmmaker Subhash Ghai's film institute is facing trouble in Andhra Pradesh as well with the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) rapping the state government over allotment of 20.10 acres of prime land to the institute in alleged violation of rules, reports PTI.

Mr Ghai is locked in a legal tangle in the AP High Court over the land allotment.

The CAG, in its latest report on land allotments in the state, related to the YS Rajasekhara Reddy government tenure, found fault with the allotment for Whistling Woods International Limited "in violation of AP Ancient and Historical Monuments and Archaeological Sites and Remains Rules 1960."

Based on a writ petition filed by a private person, the AP High Court had in January 2010 suspended the state government's order (dated August 19, 2009) giving 20.10 acres of land to Mr Ghai.

The case is pending disposal even as the state government is set to review the allotment in the light of the High Court order as well as the CAG's observations, official sources in the Revenue Department said.

The land allotted to WWIL in survey Nos. 173 and 178 at Ibrahimbagh village under Golconda mandal in Hyderabad district was adjacent to a protected monument (Premamati Mosque).

"While the market value of the land was assessed by the Hyderabad district Collector at Rs4.84 crore per acre, the government allotted the land at Rs2 crore per acre. The lease rent was fixed at 0.2% of the market value at which the land was allotted (Rs 2 crore per acre) for the first three years," the CAG report noted.

"The allotment was made through APIIC for establishing a world-class training institute of film, television, animation and media arts. This was followed by a lease agreement in October 2009, between APIIC and WWIL for allotment of 17.01 acres to WWIL for a tenure of 66 years, renewable for a further period of 30 years," it said.

The Supreme Court had on Wednesday upheld the Bombay High Court order quashing the 20 acre land allotted to his film institute at Filmcity in Mumbai.

From the fourth year onwards, the lease rent was to be enhanced to one per cent of the market value. Further, the agreement allowed WWIL to exercise an option to purchase the land at a concessional rate of Rs2 crore per acre after ten years, duly adjusting the lease rentals paid by that time, the CAG report said.

"The Government, thus, gave undue benefit to WWIL both in terms of concession in charging half the actual market value of the land and the option given to it for purchasing the land ten years down the line at the same rate irrespective of appreciation of land value. Further, allotment of land in a protected area for commercial purposes violated Government rules," it said.

In fact, audit scrutiny revealed that at the time of alienating the land, government had already decided to sign an MoU with the Islamic Republic of Iran for taking up the restoration and conservation of the monuments adjacent to this land," the CAG noted.

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Govt to kickstart coal block auction says Jaiswal

Following furore over an initial report by CAG that estimated huge losses to the exchequer in the allotment of mines, the government is readying for auction during first half of the year

New Delhi: Following furore over an initial report by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) that estimated huge losses to the exchequer in the allotment of mines, the government has said it is ready with the list of coal blocks to be bid and the auction process will kickstart by June.

"The work of identification of 54 coal blocks is complete ...The bidding process would begin in the first half of this year," Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal told PTI.

The government is also ready with the list of the blocks to be alloted to Central PSUs like NTPC and state undertakings by it, he said.

"Barring 12 blocks out of 54, all others would be auctioned to firms for end-use projects," Mr Jaiswal said.

The initial report of CAG estimated that the government incurred Rs10.67 lakh crore by allocating 155 coal blocks without auction between 2004-2009 to private and public sector companies.

Mr Jaiswal, however, had dismissed the report on allocation of coal blocks without auction as "illogical" and "baseless" arguing that when the blocks were given to the private and public sector companies for their captive usage, there was not much demand for coal.

Coal India's subsidiary CMPDI has been assigned the task of hiring a consultant for coming out with a methodology of fixing the reserve price of blocks, finalising bid documents and assisting in the bidding process.

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