If Nifty does not breach 7,700, it is likely to head higher
We had mentioned in the last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were weak and that Nifty was likely to meet selling on rallies. Over the week, the major indices in the Indian stock markets went through a relief rally for two days, a rally that was met with strong selling on Wednesday. In the last two days the market stabilised a bit. Overall gains over the week were around 1% for the major indices. The weekly trends in major indices are given in the table below:
On Monday, there was a relief rally. The index for industrial production (IIP) growth was sharply lower than expected in September at 3.6% from 6.3% in August, while retail inflation inched up for the third successive month in October to 5%.
India's annual rate of inflation, based on wholesale prices, inched up to (-)3.81% for October from (-) 4.54% for the month before, mainly on account of a whopping 86% spike in the prices of onions and 53% in pulses over the past year. According to the data on official wholesale prices index released by the commerce and industry ministry, the indices for both the major groups of primary articles and manufactured products registered a decline of 0.36% and 1.67%, respectively, during the month under review. The index for the sub-category of food articles, though, was up 2.44% during the year. In the past month alone, prices for urad dal rose 17%, arhar 12%, gram 7% and moong 6%.
Fuel prices rose as oil companies on Sunday hiked the prices of petrol and diesel by 36 paise and 90 paise respectively. "The current level of international product prices of petrol and diesel and INR-USD exchange rate warrant an increase in prices, the impact of which is being passed on to the consumers with this price revision," Indian Oil said in a statement on Sunday. The oil marketer said the price of petrol per litre from Monday will be Rs.61.06 in Delhi, Rs.66.39 in Kolkata, Rs.68.13 in Mumbai and Rs.61.38 in Chennai. Diesel will cost Rs.46.80 a litre in Delhi, Rs.50.29 in Kolkata, Rs.54.04 in Mumbai and Rs.48.00 in Chennai.
The levy of 0.5% Swachh Bharat cess on taxable services came into effect from Sunday, pushing the service tax rate will go up from 14% to 14.5% on all taxable services. It is expected to fetch the exchequer about Rs3,800 crore in the remaining months of the fiscal.
Key Indian equities indices opened higher on Tuesday in line with a rally in the US and a surge in Asian stocks, but sentiments remained cautious on the back of some not-too-encouraging news on factory output growth, inflation and exports. News from the agriculture sector was positive and is likely to maintain aggregate demand for the economy. Paddy arrival in Haryana was up by nearly 13 lakh tonnes compared to last year, the state's food and supplies department said on Tuesday. "During the current Kharif season, more than 52.92 lakh tonnes of paddy has arrived in the mandis (markets) of Haryana till November 16. During this period last year, 40.09 lakh tonnes of paddy had arrived in the mandis," a spokesman of the department said.
On Wednesday, the indices opened flat in the morning session in line with the global cues, notably from the Asian peers and Wall Street. As the day’s trading progressed, the markets were due for a sharp correction of 1.35%-1.92%. The central government on Wednesday approved six foreign direct investment (FDI) proposals amounting to Rs1,810.25 crore. The largest component of foreign investments that were approved belongs to IIFL Holdings which totalled Rs1,800 crore. The non-banking financial company (NBFC) had sought permission for increasing its foreign equity from 50.16% to 80% via issuing shares to FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors). Other proposal worth Rs10 crore was approved for Monsoon Capital LLC, which had sought approval for investing in the corpus of a domestic alternative investment trust.
On Thursday, a day after the central government announced a string of major decisions to increase public spending in the infrastructure sector and with heightened chances of key reforms getting passed during the upcoming parliament session, Indian equity markets exhibited buoyancy. In addition, a strengthening rupee restored investor confidence. Attractive stock prices and announcements of disinvestment and interest subvention scheme for exporters brought back investors. The gains in the indices at the close of trading were around 1.4%-1.5%.
The prospects of growth in consumption-led demand, after a key panel recommended major salary and pension hike for central government employees, buoyed Indian equity markets on Friday. However, the intra-day gains could not be sustained and there was a late-afternoon sell-off for profit booking.