Risk factors may shift towards negative on India rating: S&P

“India has been grappling with a political gridlock and the government’s ability to implement measures to improve economic growth and fiscal prudence will be vital to boosting confidence,” S&P credit analyst Takahira Ogawa said

New Delhi: Global rating agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Monday warned that “the balance of risk factors” for India’s sovereign credit rating could tilt towards ‘negative’ zone this year, given the headwinds being faced by the country on domestic and global fronts, reports PTI. 

However, S&P maintained that it does not expect to downgrade or revise its ‘stable’ outlook on the investment grade ‘BBB-’ long-term sovereign credit rating on India in the near future.

At the same time, S&P said, India is battling with high inflation, a weak government fiscal position, and slower economic growth on domestic front, while European sovereign debt problems could add to the pressures for the country.

“Like many countries, India is facing some challenges on a few fronts, and the balance of risk factors for the sovereign credit rating may be shifting slightly toward the negative,” S&P Ratings Services said in a report.

“Standard & Poor’s doesn’t expect to downgrade or revise the outlook on the long-term rating in the near future.

However, the negative factors, combined with the government’s weak policy formulation and implementation, may lead us to a tipping point,” S&P credit analyst Takahira Ogawa said.

“India has been grappling with a political gridlock and the government’s ability to implement measures to improve economic growth and fiscal prudence will be vital to boosting confidence,” Mr Ogawa said.

As per the report titled “Several Factors Could Weigh On India’s Current Stable Sovereign Rating In 2012”, high inflation, a weak government fiscal position, and slower economic growth have hurt investor confidence in the rupee, triggered a capital outflow, and weighed on the stable sovereign outlook on India in 2012.

“Our stable outlook on the ‘BBB-’ long-term rating on India currently reflects our expectation of strong economic growth in the medium term and gradually improving fiscal performances,” Mr Ogawa said.

He further noted that S&P has “factored in inflation and political uncertainty, which may lead to higher government subsidies and stalled reform efforts.”

At the recently held World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, S&P president Douglas Peterson had said they have an investment grade rating with a stable outlook on India and the country is more likely to improve further on this.

Brushing aside the concerns of slow reforms and the perceived notion of ‘policy-paralysis’, Mr Peterson had said, “In a democracy, the policies are made after a prolonged dialogue and that is indeed a healthy practise.”

Apparently, impressed with the positive discussions about India, Mr Peterson went on to say that it was quite a refreshing change that the talks have moved away from the European crisis to India at Davos.



Prime Minister and Chidambaram should resign says Shanti Bhushan

In a statement, the Team Anna member said the Prime Minister and the then Finance Minister is not justified in allowing a huge loss being caused to the country for saving the government and continuing in offices

Noted lawyer and Team Anna member, Shanti Bhushan has said that after the recent judgement by the Supreme Court, neither Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh nor Home Minister P Chidambaram should be allowed to continue to be in the office.

In a statement, Mr Bhushan, who is also former Minister of Law, said, "The Special Judge has held that Chidambaram agree with the then Telecom Minister A Raja to sell spectrum in 2008 at the prices determined in 2001 even though the market value of spectrum in 2008 was bound to be many times higher owing to the stupendous growth in the telecom sector between 2001 and 2008."

Last week, the Supreme Court, in its order on cancellation of 122 2G telecom licenses has asked the government to seek fresh recommendations from TRAI on allocation of licences and spectrum by way of auction. The apex court has given the government a time-frame of four months to complete the process.

"He (the Judge) also held that the then Finance Minister's act of granting permission to licensees to transfer its equity in favour of other companies at a very high price, even if contrary to the terms of the license also did not, per se, make him (Mr Chidambaram) a party to a criminal conspiracy with Raja," the statement said.

The special judge further pointed out that while there was clear evidence against Raja and others facing trial about their involvement in the criminal conspiracy, similar evidence was lacking against Chidambaram. “In the absence of any other evidence so far, the special judge may be right in his order rejecting Swamy’s (Dr Subramanian Swamy) plea for making Chidambaram a co-accused,” the statement added.

In every case of conspiracy, actionable evidence emerges only after an investigation by an empowered and independent investigation agency. “It may be noted here that the CBI cannot independently investigate against Chidambaram as the Home Ministry controls the transfers, postings, promotions, suspensions and disciplinary proceedings of the IPS cadre members of the CBI,” the lawyer said.

Talking about the Dr Singh's role in the episode, Mr Bhushan said, "It is clear that the Prime Minister came to know of the facts and could have prevented the grant of licenses at 2001 prices. He could have dropped Raja from the government. His defense that the constraints of coalition politics did not permit him to intervene is no defense at all. This only implies that if he had intervened, his government might have fallen.”

Here is the statement issued by Mr Bhushan...




8 months ago

I have invested 30000 R's more than six years please tell me how giving me my money.


5 years ago

Mr Shanthi Bhusan buys his grocery by paying through cheque? Does he inquire if the seller pays tax or not? Does he only visits shops which pays tax and does not have unaccounted money? May be he should ask Mr Swamy and find those outlets.



In Reply to Prasanta 5 years ago

@Prasanta: Have you ever in your life seen a grocery store accepting cheque?

If not, your comment is absurd.
Please learn to use a thing in your head, if there is.

Dr Subramanian Swamy says everyone should be bothered about rampant corruption – Part 1

The Janata Party President, speaking at Moneylife Foundation’s second anniversary program,...

Premium Content
Monthly Digital Access


Already A Subscriber?
Yearly Digital+Print Access


Moneylife Magazine Subscriber or MSSN member?

Yearly Subscriber Login

Enter the mail id that you want to use & click on Go. We will send you a link to your email for verficiation

We are listening!

Solve the equation and enter in the Captcha field.

To continue

Sign Up or Sign In


To continue

Sign Up or Sign In



The Scam
24 Year Of The Scam: The Perennial Bestseller, reads like a Thriller!
Moneylife Magazine
Fiercely independent and pro-consumer information on personal finance
Stockletters in 3 Flavours
Outstanding research that beats mutual funds year after year
MAS: Complete Online Financial Advisory
(Includes Moneylife Magazine and Lion Stockletter)