How do you plan for retirement when so many relevant questions are unanswered? You don’t know how long you will live for, but can you calculate what your expenses will be, how inflation will affect expenditure, and much else. Debashis Basu, trustee of Moneylife Foundation, presented a clear picture to the participants in a session on retirement, explaining of the various factors to be considered and the dangers of insufficient planning
Moneylife Foundation hosted the first of its two-part seminar on retirement planning on 23 March 2013. Addressing a packed audience at the Moneylife Knowledge Centre, Debashis Basu, trustee of Moneylife Foundation, discussed how to arrive at a figure that will be sufficient to last a retired life. Mr Basu began by discussing how and why it is neglected. He said, “We rarely ever bother to make the calculation, even though it is not difficult at all. One reason why it is not done is because there are competing objectives. When retirement planning is supposed to be ongoing, there are EMIs (equated monthly instalments) to pay off and the high cost of college education. Another reason is that there is much that is simply not known. Many assumptions are to be made when making a retirement plan.” Assumptions, he argued, may prove to be right or wrong, but this is no reason not to make them at all.
Mr Basu then moved on to a fictional scenario, which spanned over 40 years, to help participants understand how to formulate a plan. He said, “In this example, I have assumed everything. I have assumed that a 45-year-old man named Mr Kumar is earning Rs60,000 a month, saves Rs15,000, spends Rs20,000, has Rs20 lakh in savings and an EMI to pay off. At the same time, he is worried about his children’s higher education and wishes to travel abroad when he’s retired, two objectives competing with a much-needed retirement plan for his finances.”
If your income grows as inflation rages on, it may be possible to ignore the adverse effects of inflation. But when your income is static, it becomes a major problem. Mr Basu said, “If Mr Kumar spends Rs20,000 a month now, in 15 years, when he’s 60 and retired, he’ll be spending Rs72,000 a month. But let’s agree that his expenses drop to 80% in retirement. This means that, at 60 years, he’ll be spending Rs60,000. Have you any idea what his monthly expenses will be when he’s 85 years old? Rs480,000 a month. It’s certainly not unlikely that he will live till age of 85. In urban India, it is common. At the same time, inflation is always higher than the national figure for urban India.”
Indians do save their money, but often don’t look beyond fixed-income schemes, such as bank FDs or investment-oriented insurance products. Mr Basu said, “I have assumed that Mr Kumar has invested in recurring deposit and money-back plans. FDs give very poor post-tax returns and we’ve examined traditional insurance plans at Moneylife and found that they don’t give anything more than 6% to 7%. This is not a good rate of return. What Mr Kumar is then left with is his largest asset, which is his house. But this is an illiquid asset, which means it isn’t income-generating.”
With poor returns from investment and high inflation, how long does Mr Kumar’s retirement corpus last? Mr Basu calculated that, if Mr Kumar’s Rs20 lakh grew at 7% and he put aside Rs15,000 each month until he was 60 years, which also grew at 7%, the corpus would work out to Rs1.03 crore. If inflation then continued each year at 9%, which is likely to happen in India, Mr Kumar would run out of funds by the time he turned 77. This led to the second part of the session, when Mr Basu discussed what went wrong.
The reason why Mr Kumar’s retirement corpus was insufficient was that he did not account for the six unknowns—underinvestment risk, the risk of longevity, failure to account for sudden spikes in monthly expenses, the dominance of a non-income-generating asset real estate in the portfolios, low growth of assets and post-retirement support.
Mr Basu said, “Underinvestment risk is the danger of not having saved or invested enough for retirement, if not both. The second risk, longevity, is a big concern. The longer you live, the more likely it becomes that you will run out of money.”
The third factor, failure to account for sudden spikes in monthly expenses, is one that is completely unknowable. You cannot, for example, predict when you’ll need surgery in your later years. Mr Basu said, “We have assumed that your retirement expenses will be 80% of current expenses. But what about the month when you need surgery or are under costly medication? At this time, it could be 135% of current expenses.
The problem of overreliance on property is another problem. “Real estate works just like stock. It can go up, it can go down. In a good economic scenario, real estate appreciates, at other times it can be static. At the same time, we must remember that it many areas even in Mumbai, rental income is just 2% per annum of the property value. Your largest asset should generate a return of more than just 2%.” Mr Basu advised equity exposure as a means to achieving a sizeable corpus. Mr Basu said, “It’s difficult if you’re not the type to take risk, but you have to convince yourself. It’s the only asset class that is able to give higher returns. Of course you may have invested in mutual funds or stocks in 2008 and decided never to do so again. But you must realise its potential. Healthcare costs are rising at 20% compounded every year. A fixed deposit cannot meet this rising expense. Equity can at least try.”
Lastly, Mr Basu discussed one unknown that even he did not take into account. He said, “I haven’t included support, both monetary and non-monetary, from a son, daughter or any other family member. Indian children do support their parents, so perhaps you won’t need to bother about that big healthcare cost. I haven’t taken this into account because it’s different for different people.”
The session was followed by an engaging Q&A session, which addressed topics such as property rates, rentals and reverse mortgage. The second part of the session, the date for which will soon be announced, will focus on how best to generate this retirement corpus.
If Nifty closes above 5,690 it may target 5,825
The Gujarat High Court has directed the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation to investigate continued sale of plastic bags in shops despite a directive to charge for plastic bags which expired in April 2012. Some retailers are now even making consumers pay for paper bags which also violates norms
Did you know that there’s a good chance that you’re a “brand ambassador” for a big (or small) corporation? Surely, you’ll realise this when you pay as much as Rs10 for shopping bags, that come embedded with large logos, sold in retail outlets. Some retail outlets charge as much as Rs10 for a plastic shopping bag and, in increased instances, even paper bags for you to carry all your purchases and shopping items. Did you know charging for paper bags is clear violation of norms? But it is happening all over India. What is worse is that in Gujarat, it is reported that consumers continue to pay for plastic bags, even though the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation’s (AMC) directive for sale of plastic bags and charging for the same had expired, way back in April 2012 itself.
The Gujarat High Court has issued notices to the AMC, ministry of environment and forests (MoEF) and the Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPB), questioning the continued sale of plastic bags in shops and malls and charging consumers for the same. This order by the high court came into light when the Consumer Education and Research Society (CERS) had filed a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) against AMC questioning why consumers had to pay even though AMC’s directive to charge consumers for plastic bags was not in force.
According to CERS, AMC earlier had issued a circular resolution banning manufacturing and sale of plastic bags measuring less than 40 microns for a period of three months from 1 January 2012 to 31 March 2012. Further more, the circular also states that consumers should pay for the bags. Even after expiry of the directive, shops and malls continued to charge consumers plastic bags even through AMC had not extended or updated its directive. AMC had failed to properly supervise or do its duty.
On a related note, stores like Fab India and Cotton World continue to take to money making. Both these well known brands used to provide eco friendly bags, for free. CottonWorld was one of the best as it gave cloth bags which lasted forever and we still reuse them. It now gives you brown paper, specially printed and priced. Even small fruit and vegetable vendors continue to dispense plastic bags with no check at all.
Take a look at how things have changed from the photos taken by Moneylife. If you look at Fab India’s old newspaper styled bag, which was free, it was far more robust and of better quality than the brown present day variety. Similarly, look at Cotton World—the green cloth bag (incidentally, green is the colour of environment) could easily be used for a long time. And it looked good too. You just had to pay once and reuse it. Now we are made to pay every time for the inferior paper bags that looks ugly as well, that is if we do not carry our own bags.
Earlier, shops used to be doling out free bags at their own expenses and these bags were mostly environmental friendly and of really good quality. Things drastically changed when the Plastic Waste (Management and Handling) Rules, 2011, issued by the Environment ministry came into force, and it was up to each municipal corporation to implement them.
Clause 10 of the Plastic Waste (Management and Handling) Rules, 2011 (The ‘Rules’) states that, “No carry bags shall be made available free of cost by retailers to consumers. The concerned municipal authority may by notification determine the minimum price for carry bags depending upon their quality and size which covers their material and waste management costs in order to encourage their re-use so as to minimize plastic waste generation.”
Worse than AMC not discharging its duty effectively (i.e. making retailers do not misuse the law or directive, even when not in force), according to CERS, retailers and establishments have also been charging for carry bags which are not plastic (paper, cloth, etc.) which is in violation of the MoEF notification. Further the chargeable plastic carry bags do not mention manufacturer’s details and other important stipulations which are also in violation of MoEF’s notification.
According to the notification, “carry bags” (i.e. bags provided by retailers) only applied to plastic bags and not otherwise. According to the Rules, stated in verbatim: “Carry Bags” mean bags made from any plastic material used for the purpose of carrying or dispensing commodities but do not include bags that constitute or form an integral part of the packaging in which goods are sealed prior to use.
Why should consumers pay for paper bags or even environmental-friendly recyclable bags? Where are the authorities to make sure that the law is not being abused? Corporates not only taking advantage of consumers’ lack of awareness but the environment degradation continues. Cloth and paper bags are environmental friendly and costs as much as plastic bags and yet we are made to pay for it, which is ridiculous. Now even essentials such as pharmaceutical and grocery stores are charging for paper bags and have stopped dispensing bags for free. Small fruit and vegetable vendors continue to dispense plastic bags with no check at all and are often less than 40 microns. Moreoever, even if you do carry your own cloth bag (or environmental friendly bags) and do not want to pay for a plastic bag, most of the times, a security personnel will make you forfeit it once you enter a store.
CERS has asked for such illegally charged money collected by retailers and commercial establishments from consumers to be deposited in the State Consumer Welfare Fund and has also requested a provision to be added whereby the amount can be deposited with the AMC, to in turn be utilized for plastic waste management.
The PIL was filed by Ms Pritee Shah Editor INSIGHT on behalf of CERS through Advocate Apurva Dave.
An excellent infographic on plastic bags can be found here.