Nifty has to stay above 7,400 for the uptrend to continue
We had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were looking tired and that Nifty might head lower, if it were to close below 7,460. The major indices in the Indian stock markets suffered a sharp correction and closed about 1% lower than Monday’ close. The trends of the major indices in Tuesday’s trading are given in the table below:
After five months of steady rise, the CPI (consumer price index) dropped, to 5.2% in February, from 5.7% in January, making the case stronger for another repo rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). “The Budget’s focus on fiscal consolidation had already created conditions for the RBI to cut rates; we expect the policy rate to be sliced by 25-50 basis points (bps) in 2016. A benign inflation climate further allows for this; CPI, we believe, will stay soft at 5% average, unchanged from our estimate for fiscal 2016, if India is blessed with a normal monsoon. Given the excess industrial capacity, weak demand and soft commodity and crude oil prices, the impending Seventh Pay Commission payouts are unlikely to swing inflation away from the RBI’s glide path,” says CRISIL in its forecast on inflation.
The much awaited decline in CPI came on the back of a fall in food inflation in February (to 5.3% from 6.8% in January), especially in pulses, vegetables, oils and fats, and meat and fish. While the slide in CPI is a relief, sticky-inflation in some items has now come under the radar of the RBI. “Sticky items, as per our estimates, comprise nearly 20% of the CPI index. Education and health are two such where inflation has only fallen by 80 bps and 10 bps respectively in fiscal 2016 and remains high at 5.8% and 5.2%. These maintain an upward pressure on core, which rose 20 bps to 5.4% in February” points out CRISIL.
IIP (Index of industrial production) dipped for the third month in January, reporting -1.5% growth, compared to -1.2% in December. This was led by a steep fall in manufacturing activity, mainly in industrial and investment related goods. Capital goods continued to be major drag on industrial activity reflecting the investment lull in the economy, while consumer durables output was flat on-year reflecting weak demand. “In fiscal 2017, assuming a normal monsoon, an uptick in the rural economy will drive consumption. The lagged impact of interest rate reductions, salary revisions and easier monetary conditions will also support demand and boost industrial capacity utilisation. We expect GDP to rise to 7.9% in fiscal 2017 from 7.6% in fiscal 2016 and industry GDP to grow at 7.6% driven by manufacturing and construction activity,” forecasts CRISIL in its report.
In India, in particular, with hopes of a rate cut from RBI, banking and realty stocks were buoyant in Tuesday’s trading.
The yen advanced against the dollar and Asian stocks languished near the day's lows on Tuesday, after the Bank of Japan held its policy on interest rates steady as expected and offered a bleaker view of the country's economy in the face of lingering anxiety over slowing global growth. With the global economy slowing and many countries facing deflationary pressures, investors' focus remained squarely on policy decisions from the world's major central banks.
Adani Enterprises informed bourses that the company at its meeting held on 15 March 2016, has considered and declared Interim Dividend of Re 0.40 per equity share (i.e. 40%) of Re 1 each of the company for the financial year 2015-16. The company’s shares closed at Rs66.35, up 0.84% on the BSE. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone informed BSE that the board of the company at its meeting held on 15 March 2016, has considered and declared interim dividend of Rs1.10 per equity share (i.e. 55%) of Rs2 each of the company for the financial year 2015-16. The company’s shares closed at Rs228.00, down 1.70% on the BSE.
Vakrangee has entered into a tie-up with Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), India’s largest commercial enterprise for setting up Vakrangee Kendra at its retail outlets (distribution network). This tie up would increase the customer touch points at the Vakrangee Kendra and ensure a boost in its core objective i.e. Financial Inclusion, providing Digital India services, Social Inclusion, Employment Generation and Skill Development. Vakrangee shares closed at Rs219.50, down 1.41% on the BSE. IOC shares closed at Rs392.95, up 2.10% on the BSE.
Online shopping portal Infibeam will hit the capital markets on 21 March 2016 to mop-up Rs450 crore through an initial share plan, becoming the first e-commerce firm to tap the IPO (initial public offering) route. FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) company Procter and Gamble (P&G) has discontinued manufacture and sale of its popular brand 'Vicks Action 500 Extra' with immediate effect after the government banned fixed dose combination drugs. "The Government of India has prohibited the manufacture for sale, sale and distribution of fixed dose combination drugs (Paracetamol + Phenylephrine + Caffeine) with immediate effect," P & G said in a BSE filing. It further said: "Our product 'Vicks Action 500 Extra' has the same fixed dose combination and gets covered under notification. We have discontinued the manufacture and sale of all SKUs of 'Vicks Action 500 Extra with immediate effect." The company’s shares closed at Rs6,067.85, down 0.99% on the BSE.
The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below: