If there is a problem in the progress of monsoon then the central bank will take this into consideration while taking a call on rates
Chennai: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would pay more attention to the progress of the south west monsoon as it goes into its 'policy date', RBI Deputy Governor Subir Gokharn said on Wednesday, reports PTI.
Observing that the monsoon had made some progress over the last two or three days, he said, "it is a fact we will obviously pay close attention to it, as we go into our policy date."
"I think, as we are hearing, it is really first two weeks of July (which) are quite significant (with regard to the effectiveness of the monsoon)...we are still in the early part of that period. So we are watching, as everybody else is to see what progress it is making. ..", Gokharn told reporters in Chennai on the sidelines of a seminar.
However, the RBI would consider, if there is a problem in the progress of the monsoon.
"I am not in a position to make judgements on the progress of the monsoon. We rely on the Meterological department for forecast. But, if there is a problem, we will take it into our consideration", he said.
According to IMD, India's monsoon appeared set to march ahead this week, as weather conditions were favourable for advance of the seasonal rains into parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.
Referring to the current account deficit, he said "the capital inflows are not matching (the expectations) and putting pressure on the rupee".
"As it (current account deficit) corrects for whatever reasons, whether it is oil prices or exports picking up or imports going down, that will obviously have a reverse effect, which will help to stabilise the rupee", he said.
The seminar on "Vision Tamil Nadu" - Building Sustainable Tomorrow - The Banking Perspective,was organised by ASSOCHAM.
Earlier, praising Tamil Nadu for its presence across various sectors, Gokharn said, Tamil Nadu reported 12.5% growth in 2011-12 against the all India GDP growth of 6.5%. "Tamil Nadu has managed to show resilience during the bad times mainly due to diversification. It can be a good example on how diversification is a best way for lesser risk," he said at the seminar.
The total industry's contribution to the State's GDP growth was 30.5% in 2001-02, which dropped to 24.8% in 2011-12.
This was due to increase in the contribution of service sector which rose to 65.8% in 2011-12 from 52.8%, he said.
According to the study -- "Achieving Higher Growth in Tamil Nadu", that was released by Gokharn, as of June 2012, Tamil Nadu has attracted investment proposals worth of Rs9.2 lakh crore with 1,637 projects.
Power sector accounted the major share of 38.5% (over Rs3.5lakh crore) of the total investments followed by services 32.3%, manufacturing 17.5%, and real estate 9.6%, the study revealed.
The State has emerged as favourite destination for domestic and foreign investors considering that about 48% of investment projects were under implementation while over 42% at MoU stages, ASSOCHAM President Rajkumar Dhoot, said.
Apart from looking after shareholders’ interests, the five star boards of microfinance companies need to take better account of other stakeholders’ interests and a proactive approach to put into practice their stated governance principles
It was almost two years ago that we had the first signs of the 2010 Andhra Pradesh microfinance crisis. And indeed a lot of water has flown under the bridge. But one aspect that I have been unable to come to grips with is how the (five star) boards of the MFIs (microfinance institutions) concerned—often filled with illustrious people—failed so miserably in discharging their fiduciary and other duties.
While there appears to be several reasons for this, in this brief article I am highlighting the key issues so that the ongoing process (by various stakeholders) of trying to revive the MFI model in India, at least focuses on some of these critical aspects. These are certainly very appropriate for the (large) MFIs as non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) —currently, a category proposed in the Malegam report of 2011 and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) subsequent circulars.
What then are the major issues that require attention and change?
First, a key requirement is for MFI board’s to strike the right balance between independence and skills with regard to their directors. Boards will be able to effectively monitor senior management at MFIs provided their directors have the skills, experience, time, willingness, objectivity and independence to do so. And this needs to be ensured in real time. An additional aspect here is that in order to safeguard the objectivity and independence of directors, it is imperative for the MFI to put in place clear policies for managing conflicts of interest. And given the diversity in MFI operations, directors must spend time in understanding the MFI’s specific operations so that institutional complexity does not come in the way of their effective functioning (an argument put forth by many so called independent directors at MFIs).
Second, it would be beneficial to review the level of diversity in the composition of MFI boards and ensure greater diversity (especially women, directors with different socio-cultural and educational backgrounds, etc). It is believed that diversity should contribute positively to the overall quality of the MFI board's actual working.
Third, in view of the increasing scale of MFI operations together with enhanced complexity of microfinance activities, there is a critical need to enhance the efficiency of MFI directors. For example, one strategy could be to limit the number of MFI boards on which a director may sit—so as to ensure that they devote the time necessary for properly discharging their responsibilities.
Fourth, MFIs must put in place an appropriate procedure (using external and independent people) for evaluating the performance of their board of directors. These evaluations should also be shared with the shareholders and other stakeholders (including supervisory authorities)—so that there is formal and explicit understanding of the skills, capabilities and effectiveness of directors in MFI boards.
Fifth, it is very critical that responsibilities of the board (of directors) at MFIs—especially with regard to its role in risk supervision—be made more explicit and thereby strengthened. In other words, it would be very prudent to consider creating a specialised risk supervision sub-committee within MFI boards. And it would also be critical for the MFI boards to publish their approval of the MFI’s overall risk strategy and profile through a transparent (public) document—this is the equivalent of a risk control declaration in common banking parlance. Such a public document should also contribute to prudent management and supervision of risks within MFIs and this is very important, given what happened in Andhra Pradesh in 2010.
Sixth, in practice, there seems to be a lot of overlap with regard to decision-making in many MFIs. Without any doubt, greater clarity is needed on what the respective roles and responsibilities (of the various stakeholders) are with regard to decision-making within the MFI. And this is especially true with regard to the roles and responsibilities of the board vis-à-vis senior management. Therefore, MFI boards must ensure that clear accountability and responsibility structures are in place with regard to the entire institution including subsidiaries (if any), related group entities, regional/state offices, branches etc.
Seventh, where possible, MFI boards must seek and have increased cooperation with the supervisory authorities so that any substantial/systemic risks, like what happened in Andhra Pradesh in 2010, are indeed nipped in the bud.
And last but not the least, apart from looking after shareholders’ interests, MFI boards also need to take better account of other stakeholders’ interests. And clients are especially very important here. Especially, the creation of a specific sub-committee in MFI boards to take account of the interests of other such stakeholders (like clients and their protection) in their decision-making (“duty of care”) could go a long way in alleviating some of the key issues that emanated from the 2010 Andhra Pradesh microfinance crisis. Whether the concerned MFI associations and the NBFC MFIs will take a proactive approach to putting into practice their stated governance principles is something that time only can tell…
(Ramesh Arunachalam has over two decades of strong grass-roots and institutional
experience in rural finance, MSME development, agriculture and rural livelihood systems, rural and urban development and urban poverty alleviation across Asia, Africa, North America and Europe. He has worked with national and state governments and multilateral agencies. His book—Indian Microfinance, The Way Forward—is the first authentic compendium on the history of microfinance in India and its possible future.)
For all practical forecast purposes, even as critical indices cross El Nino thresholds values and intensifies further, as far as its impact on the monsoon is concerned, it is fairly negligible
If all goes well and rains pickup by 5th or 6th July, where there are optimistic indications that this may well be the case, then as Aamir Khan says, all izz well. If on the other hand, there is a further delay say till the 10th of this month, agriculture would be hit very badly and then probably all the observations of this comment may hold true. So let us wait for a week and see how the rains pan out. Weather and climate being chaotic non-linear systems, no forecast can command absolute certainty. It is the huge uncertainties that make forecasting monsoon extremely hazardous.
About El Niño, there are all kinds of suspicions whether it is an El Niño effect at all. It is usual for the Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to warm up during the boreal summer (till September) and then lose all its heat suddenly. The Regional Institute of Global Change (RIGC), Tokyo is of the opinion that this would be the case and as such factored this into their model projections.
Besides, there are besides two variations of an El Nino. The normal one goes eastward while the alternate or pseudo one called El Nino Modiki goes westward. There is strong suspicion that what we are experiencing is the Modiki version, but this needs to be confirmed. Their effects are different in general and India in particular. If the Modiki version is considered then the 2003 monsoon would be a better comparison than 2010 to the present monsoon.
The media and NGO scare paints the El Niño factor as the main monsoon spoiler. According to the latest available data, we have now decisively crossed El Niño threshold values at the end of last week with Niño 3.4 at + 0.6ºC and Southern Oscillation Index (SoI) at -10.4. These threshold values need to be maintained for the next three months before an El Niño episode can be officially confirmed.
However global models as seen above remain split whether an El Niño will develop for the monsoon period July-September but more unanimous in projecting an El Niño from September. In May, Tokyo-based RIGC Hindu Business Line that the warm sea surface temperature anomaly near the eastern boundary of the Pacific may disappear towards the end of the monsoon. The ‘neutral’ state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) will return to the east Pacific basin, and may continue until March-April next.
POAMA model’s ensemble means projecting weak El Niño conditions during the remaining monsoon months—July-September—could be observed below:
One factor many forecasts overlook is that there is always a time lag between an El Niño and its impact on the monsoon, which could be anywhere between three to six months. This practically means September is the earliest, if any, it can impact the current monsoon, as the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) correctly assumes. So for all practical forecast purposes, even as critical indices cross El Niño thresholds values and intensifies further, as far as its impact on the monsoon, it is fairly negligible. It’s almost as if ENSO neutral conditions exist right through June to September for forecasting purposes.
But even assuming weak El Niño effects prevail during July-September, is this sufficient condition for the media and NGOs to declare the monsoon dead on arrival?
So let’s look at the IMD data according to which there have been 36 El Niño years since 1875 and the table below shows how they panned out in terms of rainfall:
So for El Niño years, there is a 44% probability for rainfall less than 90% of LPA; 39% probability for rainfall falling between 90-100%; and only 17% probability for above average rainfall. There are two ways to look at this data:
a. The probability of rainfall below 90% of LPA is the highest at 44%, so it is assumed the most likely outcome
b. The probability of rainfall above 90% of LPA is the highest at 56%, so it is assumed the most likely outcome.
Regarding irrigation—what insulates us is that though our granary (SWM)—Punjab and Haryana—which is reeling under poor rainfall, have 93% of their arable land irrigated. During the rabi season, our granary (NWM) are mainly Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, should see bumper crops because of the El Nino effect though winter wheat production in Punjab and Haryana may take a hit as the crop responds better to milder temperatures like cold waves.
About the Rabi season likely to be a failure, yes and no. No because NE Monsoon rains respond favourably to El Nino and adversely to La Nina. The deficiency in one is offset by the other that more or less on an annual scale puts rainfall at or very near Long Period Average (LPA). Last year we had excess SWM rainfall but deficient NEM rainfall due to the La Nina effect that brought the annual rainfall within 101% of LPA. And because the NEM was deficient last year, there is low soil moisture that increases crop vulnerability to SWM delays. But since NEM rainfall is not evenly spread as the SWM, there are areas in the country that can be badly hit. But these would be crop specific variations; on the whole we should register another agriculture bumper, even if it is not statistically significant.
Now monsoon being sufficient for agriculture and reservoir are two different things, though related due to their irrigation links. If we get July-August rains at near ‘normal’ LPA, then agriculture should be ok. Whether our reservoir situation is comfortable depends how the NEM fares up.