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Positive opening indicated for Indian stocks: Thursday Market Preview

Markets across the world cheered the Greek government’s win of the first leg of the confidence vote

The market is likely to see a positive opening tracking the Asian pack which was trading with gains in early trade on Thursday on developments in Greece. The Greek government winning the fist stage of the confidence vote with 155 votes in favour and 138 against led Wall Street to close higher for the third day in a row. The SGX Nifty was 36.50 points up at 5,644.50 compared to its previous close of 5,608.

Back home, the government will announce weekly food inflation data around noon and the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs is expected to take up the Cairn-Vedanta deal today.

The Nifty closed in the positive for the seventh day in a row and the Sensex finished higher for the fifth straight day yesterday on positive developments in Europe and across-the-board buying by foreign institutional investors. Both benchmarks closed at their highest levels in nearly two months. On Tuesday we had said that if the index closes above 5,560, the up-move will gain more strength to reach up to 5,650. The Nifty traded above 5,560 for the entire session. The index has to stay above 5,608 to keep the momentum going.

Earlier the Nifty opened 22 points higher at 5,567 and the Sensex started the day at 18,552, up 60 points from its previous close. The day's opening figures were also the intra-day lows today. The market continued its northward journey in subsequent trade, on all-round buying support, amid some choppiness. Gains in post-noon trade were also boosted by a firming up in the key European bourses, which opened in the green on confidence that Greece will be able to avoid a default on its debt. All sectoral indices were positive.

The indices touched their intra-day highs at around 2.30pm, with the Nifty adding 64 points to 5,609 and the Sensex climbing 223 points to touch 18,715. Finally, the Nifty finished 55 points higher at 5,600 and the Sensex jumped 201 points to close at 18,694. The closing on both the Nifty and the Sensex are the highest since 3rd May.

The US markets settled in the green for the third day in a row overnight as the Greek government won the first leg of the confidence vote. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou must today win a second vote to execute measures ranging from tax increases to asset sales.

In US economic news, the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index increased 8.2% to 88.8, bouncing back from April’s seven-month low. Economists had expected home resale contracts to rise only 3.8% after a revised 11% fall in April.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday moved to set a less-severe limit on debit-card swipe fees than previously proposed. Visa Inc and MasterCard Inc, the biggest consumer-payment networks, jumped more than 11%, as the Fed moved to cap debit-card transaction fees at 21 cents.

The Dow closed 72.73 points (0.60% higher at 12,261.42, the blue-chip index’s biggest three-day gain since March.  The S&P 500 gained 10.74 points (0.83%) at 1,307.41, also the biggest three-day gain since March. The Nasdaq added 11.18 points (0.41%) at 2,740.49.

Markets in Asia, which opened with marginal gains, were struggling to move higher in early trade today. The regional bourses joined other world markets in cheering the Greek confidence vote. Meanwhile, the Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 50.7 in June from 51.3 in May. However, the index remained above the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for a second straight month.

In another development, South Korea said yesterday it would require banks to raise risk weightings in their capital ratios for heavy borrowers as part of measures to prevent heavy household debts from causing a fresh financial crisis.

Oil jumped as much as 3% on Wednesday, ending at the highest level in a week, on sharp drawdowns in US crude and gasoline stocks. ICE Brent crude for August jumped $3.62, or 3.3%, settling at $112.40 a barrel, its highest close since 22nd June. US August crude settled at $94.77, gaining $1.88, or 2.02%, also the highest finish since 22nd June.

The Shanghai Composite surged 1.20%, the Hang Seng jumped 1.81%, the Jakarta Composite gained 1.09%, the Straits Times climbed 0.83%, the Seoul Composite added 0.08% and the Taiwan Weighted rose 0.25%. On the other hand, the KLSE Composite lost 0.08% and the Nikkei 225 shed 0.01%.

Back home,  former RBI governor Bimal Jalan yesterday said credible action should be taken to tame inflation and suggested reducing import duties on food items. He said the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal tools depends on the ability to convince people that inflationary expectation has subdued.

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