Citizens' Issues
Observing simple traffic rules: Stop and proceed please

Important thing is to prevent accidents from happening. Laws must be in place but the focus should be physical features that prevent cars moving at high speeds in by lanes and road junctions

There is a report that the driver of a Bollywood actor, while rushing in a Toyota Lexus in Bandra to take a tiffin box and an umbrella, hit a 70-year old pavement dweller at about 10.30pm. She died at the hospital. It is reported that the driver was not under the influence of alcohol.

Firstly, this is another occasion reported of an accident when a speeding car hit a person crossing the road in the Bandra Khar region. Unlike the last time that occurred at Khar Danda when the driver-owner stopped and took the pregnant woman and her husband to the hospital, in this case the driver had no such concern and fled to the police station at 1am fearing mob fury! When the 70-year old victim in the current accident was taken to the hospital, the story is as pathetic as it was then, except that the victim breathed her last outside the first hospital, as was reported in various media.

From various press reports one could say for sure that the driver was driving at high speed; he had to negotiate a near u-turn for which the speed was still high enough for him to have lost control, especially after he suddenly saw this lady crossing the road and tried to avoid hitting her but was late in doing so. The impact must have been severe enough to injure her sufficiently that she succumbed to injuries when taken to the hospital.

We know that it is next to impossible to police every nook and corner of Mumbai 24x7 and prevent speeding cars. Fear of punishment perhaps prevents many from driving rashly but there are always some who dare to defy, especially when the roads are empty. Cars are powerful and the probability of being caught violating speed limits being low, violations do take place, sometimes resulting in fatality.

Speed limits have been imposed firstly for the safety of other road users such as other motorcars, motorized two-wheelers, non-motorized vehicles and pedestrians; and secondly for the safety of the car user himself. Modern cars are designed to provide safety to the occupiers of the cars which give added confidence to car user and he tends not to slow down. It is important to drive within the prescribed speed limits and be concerned of everyone’s safety while driving. One must value life over everything.

“Stop & Proceed” used to be the road signage put up at every road junction and generally followed by motorists. This “slowing down” brought vehicles to speeds low enough to prevent accidents due to surprises like the Bollywood actor’s driver experienced at late night. We need to reintroduce the culture of “Stop and Proceed”. This cannot just be a campaign like “Halt before Stop Line” where at road level there was non-observance perpetrated by constables themselves, but through physical deterrent like a speed breaker. Drivers must also stop before the zebra crossings. All roads must have this raised zebra crossings at the entry and exit of every by lane with proper signage of stop and proceed prior to exit point. Similar provision needs to be made at any location that appears to be vulnerable.

The point is that the driver took the near u-turn at high speed and perhaps saw the lady all of a sudden. On the other hand, I have seen drivers, including owner drivers, not slowing down while they spot pedestrians crossing even at a pedestrian crossing with green signal for the pedestrian. Therefore the culture of defensive driving from all perspectives, especially from the pedestrian perspective has to be inculcated.

I myself experienced a rash near u-turn close to the bus stop where Vacha Gandhi Road meets Hughes Road (NS Patkar Marg). It was the valet of West Side (a mall) bringing out the car of a customer. Since I had just got down from the bus at about 8:30pm and was walking towards the footpath across the Vacha Gandhi Road that I saw this car coming speedily and I stopped just in time. I escaped getting hit by a whisker. I took up the issue up with West Side and pulled up the driver. Had someone been walking in the opposite direction, surely the person would have met with an accident as neither the driver would have seen the pedestrian not the pedestrian seen the speeding car approaching.

What is essential is to get people to drive slowly on by-lanes as though their own children are likely to surprise them by suddenly coming in front. Physical deterrents like raised footpaths at zebra crossings must also be introduced. This will hopefully make even a rash driver slow down at such speed breakers.

(Sudhir Badami is a civil engineer and transportation analyst. He is on Government of Maharashtra’s Steering Committee on BRTS for Mumbai and Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority’s Technical Advisory Committee on BRTS for Mumbai. He is also member of Research & MIS Committee of Unified Mumbai Metropolitan Transport Authority. He was member of Bombay High Court appointed erstwhile Road Monitoring Committee (2006-07). While he has been an active campaigner against Noise for more than a decade, he is a strong believer in functioning democracy. He can be contacted on email at sudhirbadami@gmail.com)

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COMMENTS

Vikas Upadhyay

5 years ago

I'll provide another point of view.
I have seen many pedestrian looking in other side or talking on phone & not looking at the approaching vehicles while crossing the road.
I think there are rules for everybody on the road, be he/she a pedestrian or on/in a vehicle.
Not sure of the law, but do we have anything against Jaywalking in India ?

I have been troubled many times by pedestrians on my bike (office commuter) riding around 30/40 KMPH.

Bapoo Malcolm

5 years ago

Wanna bet he was on the cell phone?

Bapoo Malcolm

5 years ago

There must be a law for vicarious liability of the owner of the vehicle. The rich and infamous get away; and usually their drivers too pay their way out. Liability of the owners and equal punishment may lessen the menace.

Many owners try to save money by employing drivers who seek less salaries. These are the ones to be aware of. Let alone ruining the car, these guys are like loaded revolvers in itchy hands.

And the usual excuse..... "brake fail ho gaya". Boy, tell me another one!

Monsoon: Give the Met Dept a break. They are still on target and so are we!

While a 29% rainfall deficiency for June per se may look rather depressing, it is less than 5% of the average rainfall of 887mm in the monsoon and could be possibly made up for in the remaining season

The media has apparently gone totally berserk declaring the monsoon dead even as it has just arrived. Their headlines scream that June rainfall was deficient by a whopping 29% and that 83% of the country, including India's granary states of Punjab and Haryana, receiving deficient or scanty rainfall so far.

Self-titled "Food Security Analyst", Devinder Sharma of the NGO sector and founder member of Indian Against Corruption, also joined the scare mongering tamasha when he warned during an interview to a news channel, of the prospect of a negative agricultural growth rate due to a likely El Niño effect. This, Mr Sharma added, will further accentuate the downward pressure that the overall economy is currently experiencing that has seen our economic growth rate slip below the 7% levels-the first time over almost a decade!

It was left for deputy chairman of India's Planning Commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia to strike a word caution to journalists:

"It's not the date of the onset of the monsoon; it's the overall level and distribution over the next four months. You can have a situation where the monsoon is absolutely on time and then it peters out. You can have a situation where the monsoon is one week late or even 10 days late, but then is healthy."

Though by academic training an economist, it is good to see Montek Singh Ahluwalia display commonsense understanding why the most frequently-used adjective used to describe the monsoon is vagaries.
 

As seen from the above table, June accounts on an average only 18% of the total rainfall during the south-west monsoon. The monsoon had been demonstrating a pattern change in recent times where the rainfall in June has been decreasing while that in July is increasing. Such a change in rainfall pattern is often used as 'evidence' by NGOs and environmental groups for the building their case of "catastrophic climate change".

In reality; such a change may even be beneficial for agriculture. Though such a trend may result in delayed sowing, the excess rains in July tends to leave sufficient soil moisture for standing crops to tide over even if August rainfall fails to live up to expectations. This makes the performance of July rains absolutely the key month to agriculture growth rate.  It is the failure of July rains that could prove 'catastrophic' for Indian agriculture.

Rains can accordingly fail in June but if July records near normal or even above average rainfall, we can be fairly optimistic that this year's agricultural growth will end up in the green. While a 29% rainfall deficiency for June (124 mm of rainfall as compared to 163.6 mm average) may per se look rather depressing, it has to be kept in mind this had been almost less than 40% of the deficiency that the country suffered for the same month during the 2009 monsoon season-also another El Niño year.

In 2009, the June rains were a whopping 47.2% below a 50-year average called as the long period average (LPA). The 2009 El Niño was one of the strongest in recorded history and despite this, the country managed +0.4% agriculture growth rate, suggesting that through irrigation expansion over the years, the vulnerability risk of our agriculture to poor monsoons have significantly reduced. There is no reason why this year should be any different. In fact, we are better placed this year than ever to register a new bumper food record. Whatever momentum in the growth rate in agriculture lost during the Kharif season could be offset in part or whole by the expected bumper Rabi crop this year. While El Niños negatively affect the south west monsoon, it has an extremely favourable influence on the north east monsoon.

On an average, the country receives around 887 mm of rainfall during the monsoon months-June-September. A 29% deficiency for June still adds to date, just a 4.93% deficiency from 887 mm total average SWM rainfall. Such a shortfall could be possibly made up either in part or whole during the next three months of the monsoon performance. This is really the crux Montek Singh Ahluwalia tried telling journalists.

As far as agriculture is concerned, it is not even necessary for the monsoon to perform 100% of its LPA. What matters is what its performance is during the months of July-August and its spatial distribution during these two key monsoon months. While a 10% deficiency of rainfall from its mean by itself should not pose a problem to agriculture, what is more critical is its spatial distribution.

This is particularly true this year as what concerned meteorologists more is not so much the mean rainfall for the country but the alignment of the monsoon troughs. It was the alignment of the north west monsoon trough that initially (in June) posed a problem while the north-eastern bay trough was found well developed. Such a formation however was not helpful for rest of India since entire moisture gets offloaded in the area of the trough here that explains the Assam floods. But the situation now has changed.

A study published in the International Journal of Climatology in 2009, carried out by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) director BN Goswami et al showed that the monsoon is demonstrating a new pattern taking more time to reach the northern parts of the country. Instead of the normal onset date of 15th June, the onset at Nagpur is now taking place on 18th June with the Arabian Sea branch more active than the Bay of Bengal branch-the slowing of the monsoon being linked to the weakening of the wind shear. Wind shear is the difference in the wind speed at 1.5 km and at 12 km above the land surface.

While most global models have indicated a deficient monsoon (below 90% of LPA); the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)'s forecast is 96% of LPA viz. a 'normal' monsoon. Since the model error of IMD is + 5%, their forecast in reality is between 91-101% of LPA, which means, despite the 29% deficiency in June rainfall, the IMD is still very much on target. So is this blog-our revised forecast last week was 94% of LPA or between 92%-98% of LPA at 95% confidence level! We see no reason to revise this forecast further downwards. So don't rule us or the IMD out just yet. If rains fail in July, then please by all means announce the demise of this season's monsoon.

Courtesy: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in
 

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COMMENTS

Rajan Alexander

5 years ago

If all goes well and rains pickups by 5-6th (there are optimistic indications that this may well be the case), then as Amir Khan says, all is well.

If on the other hand there is further delay say till the 10th of this month, agriculture would be hit very badly and then probably all the observations of your comment may hold true.

So let us wait for a week and see how the rains pan out. Weather and climate being chaotic non-linear systems, no forecast can command absolute certainty. It is the huge uncertainties that make forecasting monsoon extremely hazardous.

About the El Niño, there are all kinds of suspicion whether it is an El Niño at all. It is usual for the Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to warm up during the boreal (northern Hemisphere)summer (till September) and then lose all its heat suddenly. The Regional Institute of Global Change (RIGC), Tokyo is of the opinion that this would be the case and as such factored this into their model projections.

There are besides two variations of an El Nino. The normal one goes eastward while the alternate or pseudo one called El Nino Modiki goes westward. There is strong suspicion that what we are experiencing is the Modiki version, but this needs to be confirmed. Their effects are different in general and India in particular. If the Modiki version, then 2003 monsoon would be a better comparison than 2010 to the present monsoon.

Regarding irrigation - what insulates us is that though our granary (SWM) Punjab and Haryana which is reeling under poor rainfall,they still have 93% of their arable land irrigated. During the rabi, our granary (NWM) are mainly Tamilnadu & Andhra, should see bumper crops because of the El Nino effect though winter wheat production in Punjab & Haryana may take a hit as the crop responds better to milder temperatures like cold waves.

About Rabi season likely to be a failure, yes and no. No because NE Monsoon rains respond favourably to El Nino and adversely to La Nina. The deficiency in one is offset by the other that more or less on an annual scale puts rainfall at or very near Long Period Average (LPA). Last year we had excess SWM rainfall but deficient NEM rainfall due to the La Nina effect that brought the annual rainfall within 101% of LPA. And because the NEM was deficient last year, there is low soil moisture that increases crop vulnerability to SWM delays. But since NEM rainfall is not evenly spread as the SWM, there are areas in the country that can be badly hit. But these would be crop specific variations; on the whole we should register another agriculture bumper, even if it is not statistically significant.

To read the full article, please visit: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2...

Gunda

5 years ago

A few points I want to make:

1. Irrigation in India is too less to make an impact on area under Pulses and Oilseeds - important drivers of inflation. Expect rates to spike if this continues. Reservoirs are hardly going to fill up with deficient rains.

2. If rains do poorly till mid July in the Central part of India, expect Kharif crops to be hit badly. Resowing, pest attacks and everything else will hit yields.

3. If Kharif does badly, Rabi will do worse, if one assumes normal rainfall pattern for the rest of the season and there are no additional showers around the Rabi season to provide additional moisture for the crop in a normally dry season.

Reservoirs will have barely usable supply for agriculture. District administrations will want to be extra cautious and conserve water for human uses through the summer rather than for agriculture. So little irrigation for Rabi. Farmers will stay away from crops like Wheat and prefer Gram which while more robust will still have lesser yields.

4. The situation seems to have parallels with the El Nin* affected monsoon in 2009. I really hope that does not hold true though. Or we are in for a bad time.

5. It is funny how the government prefers doles to farmers rather than investing in irrigation. There are projects that have actually been held up for 3 or 4 decades.

Oh, and by the way, this is Gunda!

High Court fines hawker Rs5,000 for filing fake case of abduction

A hawker filed petition in the HC alleging abduction of another hawker by GRP and an activist, which the Court found absolutely fake case

 

Mumbai: The Bombay High Court has fined a hawker Rs5,000 for filing a petition in which he alleged abduction of another hawker by the Government Railway Police (GRP) and Samir Zaveri, a well know activist.

Zaveri had earlier raised the alleged scam involving Railway Police Force (RPF) personnel, who set up fake magistrate court and collected fines from commuters at Kurla. He said during 2008, the racket, operated in alliance with some insiders, and used to issue fake bail bonds to commuters caught at Kurla station.

The hawker, Akeel Farooque, filed a related petition in the case, claiming that some GRP personnel, with help from Zaveri abducted another hawker Bharti Mahto. Farooque said, Mahto went missing from 10 August 2011, after he was arrested by the GRP. He also claimed that Zaveri accompanied Mahto to the Police Station.

However, Shivaji Dhumal, senior inspector of GRP at Kurla filed an affidavit in the Court, in which he said there was no evidence provide by Farooque about the abduction or his informant. Dhumal said, even the Kalwa address of Mahto, provided by Farooque, turned out to be fake. Besides, Farooque never visited the police station to record his statement despite several reminders.

Zaveri also told the Court that he never met any person named Mahto.

A Bench of justices SA Bobde and Mridula Bhatkar, while upholding contentions of Zaveri and the GRP, said the petition appears to be an 'absolutely fake', and fined Farooque Rs5,000.

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