Nifty sold off today in one of the lowest volumes. It has to close above 7,600 for a pullback rally
We had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex are within days of a sharp short-term rally and that Nifty will bounce back sharply, around the middle of this week. Negative cues from Asian markets, expectations of a US rate hike, weakening monsoon and a falling rupee eroded investor confidence further on Monday. The major indices in the Indian stock market have lost 1%-2%.
The US Fed is expected to announce its decision to hike interest rates after a decade or so of easy monetary regime with interest rates pegged at near zero levels during its policy meet scheduled on September 16-17. High interest rates in the US are expected to lead away the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from emerging markets like India. It is also expected to dent business margins as access to capital from the US will become expensive.
Sector-wise, selling was observed in BSE's healthcare, capital goods, automobile, metal and banking stocks. The S&P BSE healthcare index plunged by 282.88 points, capital goods index receded by 154.99 points, automobile index declined by 139.50 points, metal index lost by 118.85 points and banking index dropped by 92.70 points.
Negative cues emanating out of China coupled with bearish equity markets resulted in the rupee falling to its lowest levels against the US dollar in over two years during the intra-day trade on Monday.
The Indian currency was trading at 66.83 to a dollar at 4.00 p.m., down 37 paise from its previous close of 66.46 on Friday (4 September 2015). The rupee had touched an intra-day high of 66.85. The rupee had last breached the 66.80-level to a greenback on September 4, 2013.
The Indian currency came in for a beating as frantic dollar-buying in China devalued the off-shore yuan and other Asian currencies, including the rupee. The volatility started after reports from China suggested that the central bank there was planning to impose stringent regulations on foreign exchange purchases from October 2015 to curb speculation and volatility.
Monday's stock market decline marks a landmark of sorts for Narendra Modi government. The markets have come back to levels they had last seen when Modi went on to take over the reins of State. Is the Modi exuberance over?
On 16 May 2014, the general election results were announced sending Modi to 7 Race Course Road, the PM's residence, triggering a bull run which had rarely been seen in Indian stocks.
Monday's decline brought that steady rise to the level seen on that fateful day last year, when the BSE Sensex went up to 25,375 before closing at 24,121. Nifty went up to 7,563 and closed at 7,203, echoing the trades done one year and four months later.
Other triggers, such as a lowering of monsoon rainfall projections subdued investor confidence. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) lowered its long period average rainfall project from 88% to 81%. The IMD had earlier said that the overall monsoon deficit would stand close to 14%.
The weakening of monsoon might end up having a negative bearing on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s decision on a next phase of rate cuts.
Sensex gainers during Monday's trade were HDFC, up 0.64% at Rs.1,149.45, Tata Motors, up 0.23% at Rs.323.60, ONGC, up 0.18% at Rs.226 and Maruti Suzuki, up 0.07% at Rs.4,072.05.
Sensex losers were: Axis Bank, down 3.90% at Rs.450.55; Vedanta, down 3.59% at Rs.89.95, ICICI Bank, down 3.34% at Rs.249.25, Hindalco Industries, down 3.05% at Rs.71.60 and Lupin, down 2.96% at Rs.1,804.20.
The top gainers and top losers of major indices in the Indian stock markets are given in the table below:
The closing values of major indices in Asian stock markets are given in the table below:
Among European indices, the DAX was trading at 10,098.00, up 0.60% and the FTSE 100 was at 6,066.81, up 0.40%.