After a lacklustre performance throughout the year, Nomura expects near-term pick up as rupee depreciation makes steel imports dearer which will revive local demand
The steel industry has been in the doldrums for the entire 2012 but Nomura’s Equity Research expects a pick-up in the near-term. Several companies, according to media and broker reports, are sending signals that an uptrend could be imminent as they raise steel prices, indicating demand pick-up. Nomura said, “With rising global prices, and the rupee depreciation, we expect net imports to moderate from current levels. At the same time India would be entering a seasonally strong demand period and hence we expect demand to pick up from current levels.” The company is bullish on Tata Steel and Steel Authority of India (SAIL).
Nevertheless, Nomura expects near-term scenario to be beneficial for companies with expansion plans and value added products. “We believe Tata Steel’s 2.9mpta capacity, which is ramping up production, to be a key beneficiary of India being a net importer—with increased production from Tata Steel in Q4FY13.”
The steel industry is commoditised and value-addition is hard to come by and requires lot of capital expenditure.
Similarly, SAIL, which has been performing below-average, could do well as the company pushes for volumes and price cuts to get rid of its glut. It is surprising to note that India is a net importer of steel despite companies like SAIL having excess inventory. However, Nomura has cited the weak rupee and high global prices as reason for domestic demand to pick-up.
Historically, high fragmentation, economic woes in developed countries meant steel demand had been overall weak with benign sales. But slightly higher demand from China meant steel price didn’t dip and was steady if not sideways. India is a net importer of steel, which means the rupee depreciation would lead to dearer steel imports. This could force companies to buy locally instead, thus inciting demand pick up. Nomura thinks that there is a “mismatch between demand and produced material”
There’s also another factor—iron ore production has plummeted due legal and political problems in Goa. This is the raw material for steel. Limited supply and strong demand would mean an upwards bias in steel prices which would provide fillip to companies like Tata Steel and SAIL. It also added that “high value added products i.e. Tata Steel and JSW Steel have maintained their volumes in the above mentioned scenario (i.e. excess imports and slack in local demand).”
According to the government, India is expected to become the world's second largest producer of crude steel in the next two years on account of capital expansion and investments in new projects.
To read more stock research analysis by Moneylife on basis of Nomura research, click here.
Nomura, is bullish on the media space, particularly Zee TV and Dish TV. But it leaves out the implications of the charge of extortion Naveen Jindal has brought and its implications
Nomura Equity Research, in a visit note to its clients, is bullish about the media sector, particularly Zee TV and Dish TV. Nomura said that Zee TV would benefit due to lower investment on capex and digitization, while Dish TV would benefit due to the satellite model, which is similar to Direct TV/Dish US, which has done well in the United States. The media sector has been in the news of late. One of the most reported stories is Zee TV and Subhash Chandra whom the Delhi crime branch is investigating on charges of extortion (for more background on this episode, click here and here). While Nomura has put a buy call on Zee TV, it is strange that they have left this out from the overall picture and its potential short-term consequences, should things go wrong for Zee TV. However, from a fundamental standpoint, Nomura expects Zee TV to do well due to the recent digitization mandate. It expects the company to become more consumer-centric as subscription is expected to rise which would mean higher ad revenues. It expects benefits of digitization to accrue in FY16 when EBITDA “can more than triple versus FY12 levels”. Several other reports have said more or less the same thing. But there is hardly any mention of how the recent Jindal expose will affect the share price of Zee TV.
Likewise, Nomura is bullish on Dish TV due to its satellite model (as opposed to cable) and is a cash flow business. But its high intensity of capex, which is high till FY15, is worrying and has kept valuations low. Like Zee TV, Nomura expects it to be more of a consumer play, betting on increased viewership and higher ad rates.
One of the key trends that brokers and investors were looking at was the mandatory digitization in the metros. This meant that consumers had no choice but to switch and buy set-top boxes. This meant that companies like Zee TV, which had already invested in bulk in laying cables and such, will benefit, as subscriber base is expected to increase.
It is interesting to note that mid-cap company Raymond is has been cited as a buy call given that its management quality hasn’t been exemplary and has declined over the years. Nomura cited consumption story in Tier 3-4-5 towns as one of the drivers for Raymond besides its low valuation.
As far as McLeod Russel is concerned, it said, “(there is) strong interest in understanding this name and how it is going to benefit from a tea price up cycle. Investors were interested in it from the structural story with attractive valuations (on most metrics including free cash flow yield). Pushback included impact of production losses and lack of avenues to grow volume” However, the company has a strong regional brand associated with its consumers which helps. But tea is a cyclical commodity and competing with coffee (as the latter has become a popular drink) could be a challenge for the company.
Nomura wasn’t bullish on Pidilite as it had concerns of Pidilite’s elastomer project.
BV Gokhale, who has spoken about chelation therapy, offers an honest and insightful critique on the manner at which TACT trial was conducted and what could have been done, even though results were positive. He also fears possible arm-twisting that might prevent the real truth from being declared
The recent results of Trial to Assess Chelation Therapy (TACT) gave a shock to the cardiology world. They did not expect it. For hundreds of US cardiologists it was so unbearable that some of them, within minutes after the presentation by Dr Gervasio Lamas, started questioning its truth. While the results is a big boost for proponents of low cost medication and chelation therapy in particular, the results could have been better if the manner at which TACT conducted been different.
To read about the overview of the TACT results, click here
Before going ahead with my critique of TACT, I must mention that the whole world should applaud the efforts of Senator Dan Burton in instigating TACT and Dr Gervasio Lama and his team for honest and relentless follow up in search of the truth. Surely everyone will remain indebted to these individuals.
I have seen much better results than those revealed in TACT. When I started thinking about the reasons for such poor success of EDTA Chelation Therapy in TACT, following points came to my notice.
Assessing Chelation Therapy by double blind trials is like testing a car governed to travel at fixed speed where driver can only control steering.
It is worth mentioning that since double blind trials involve giving sham treatment to half of the patients they are considered to be unethical in European countries.
In the double blind trial of Chelation Therapy many patients sit together for three hours in each of the 30 infusions. Obviously after about first seven or eight infusions they correctly assess, if they are getting effective or placebo treatment. Naturally, those patients, who feel that they are getting placebo treatment, discontinue their participation in the trial.
This has happened earlier in at least two double blind trials of Chelation Therapy.
This is what exactly happened in TACT also. About 60 patients in placebo group discontinued their participation in the trial most probably because they came to know that they were getting placebo treatment. Had they continued in the trial they would have been included in the statistics and the gap in end points between Chelation group and placebo would have widened.
Ms Anna Roussell, in 2009, clearly demonstrated that when vitamin C is added to a Chelation drip there is about 25% increase in the oxidative stress that enhances the process of coronary artery disease. Had TACT infusions not used the 7 grams of vitamin C, the effectiveness of infusions would perhaps have been more.
One must understand that TACT protocol was formulated when the research was not known.
Vitamins B1 and B6 are very helpful in diabetic patients. Therefore, for such patients, if their quantity was increased from 100 to 200 mg the efficacy of Chelation Therapy would have been better.
Hospitalization is a subjective end point. It depends upon the mental set up of the patient. For some patients a very mild angina is frightening but for others it is not.
Need for bypass surgery or angioplasty is determined by cardiologists or cardiac surgeons. Several well known cardiologists and even cardiac surgeons have often reiterated that many such procedures are done for no valid reason. Under such circumstances, it can not be considered as an appropriate end point.
Needless to say that TACT will give a boost to the propagation of Chelation Therapy. But this will not be tolerated by the anti-Chelation lobby. Only a part of results are declared. Much more is still hidden. TACT team may want to honestly declare the results, but the very strong anti-Chelation lobby will not allow them do so. There is also a possibility of twisting the results by statistical jargons. The lobby will certainly want another research to be carried out with a hidden objective of proving Chelation Therapy to be ineffective.
American College of Advancement in Medicine (ACAM) and other pro-Chelation organisations should remain very careful while participating in any future research. There is no guarantee that in the next research project the team may be like TACT and the captain will be like Dr Lamas. In fact, the likelihood of their being otherwise is far more.
Click here to read about the workshop conducted by BV Gokhale held at Moneylife Foundation
(The author is a BTech and MTech (IIT Powai) and works with a team of doctors.)