Nomura, is bullish on the media space, particularly Zee TV and Dish TV. But it leaves out the implications of the charge of extortion Naveen Jindal has brought and its implications
Nomura Equity Research, in a visit note to its clients, is bullish about the media sector, particularly Zee TV and Dish TV. Nomura said that Zee TV would benefit due to lower investment on capex and digitization, while Dish TV would benefit due to the satellite model, which is similar to Direct TV/Dish US, which has done well in the United States. The media sector has been in the news of late. One of the most reported stories is Zee TV and Subhash Chandra whom the Delhi crime branch is investigating on charges of extortion (for more background on this episode, click here and here). While Nomura has put a buy call on Zee TV, it is strange that they have left this out from the overall picture and its potential short-term consequences, should things go wrong for Zee TV. However, from a fundamental standpoint, Nomura expects Zee TV to do well due to the recent digitization mandate. It expects the company to become more consumer-centric as subscription is expected to rise which would mean higher ad revenues. It expects benefits of digitization to accrue in FY16 when EBITDA “can more than triple versus FY12 levels”. Several other reports have said more or less the same thing. But there is hardly any mention of how the recent Jindal expose will affect the share price of Zee TV.
Likewise, Nomura is bullish on Dish TV due to its satellite model (as opposed to cable) and is a cash flow business. But its high intensity of capex, which is high till FY15, is worrying and has kept valuations low. Like Zee TV, Nomura expects it to be more of a consumer play, betting on increased viewership and higher ad rates.
One of the key trends that brokers and investors were looking at was the mandatory digitization in the metros. This meant that consumers had no choice but to switch and buy set-top boxes. This meant that companies like Zee TV, which had already invested in bulk in laying cables and such, will benefit, as subscriber base is expected to increase.
It is interesting to note that mid-cap company Raymond is has been cited as a buy call given that its management quality hasn’t been exemplary and has declined over the years. Nomura cited consumption story in Tier 3-4-5 towns as one of the drivers for Raymond besides its low valuation.
As far as McLeod Russel is concerned, it said, “(there is) strong interest in understanding this name and how it is going to benefit from a tea price up cycle. Investors were interested in it from the structural story with attractive valuations (on most metrics including free cash flow yield). Pushback included impact of production losses and lack of avenues to grow volume” However, the company has a strong regional brand associated with its consumers which helps. But tea is a cyclical commodity and competing with coffee (as the latter has become a popular drink) could be a challenge for the company.
Nomura wasn’t bullish on Pidilite as it had concerns of Pidilite’s elastomer project.