The Indian stock market is looking for a direction since last week’s decline and it did not carry too far
We had mentioned in last week’s closing report this downtrend may start soon in the later part of this week. On Thursday, the indices witnessed a major plunge. Sensex closed at its lowest since 8 October 2013. However, on Friday, the benchmark made a quick recovery by the end of the session. The BSE Sensex closed the week that ended on 14th February, at 20,366.82 (down 10 points or 0.05%), while the NSE Nifty closed at 6,048.35 (down 15 points or 0.24%) for the week.
After a volatile session on Monday, Nifty ended in the negative after three days of positive move. Nifty closed at 6,053 (down 10 points or 0.16%). A survey showed that business activity across emerging markets expanded in January at the slowest pace in four months, dragged down by sluggish services sectors. HSBC's composite emerging markets index of manufacturing and services purchasing managers' surveys slipped for the second month running to 51.4 in January. It stayed under the 2013 average of 51.7 and well below the score of 64.1 posted last January.
Last Friday, back in US, the data showed that payrolls rose less than projected in January and the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in more than five years.
Nifty could manage to cover up its Monday’s loss on Tuesday. Nifty closed at 6,063 (up 9 points or 0.15%). However, the bulls seemed less confident with the market awaiting global cues for further direction. India's trade deficit narrowed to $9.92 billion in January 2014, from $10.14 billion in December 2013.
Nifty closed at 6,084 (up 21 points or 0.35%) on Wednesday on the back of upbeat data from China where in the country's trade surplus widened to $31.86 billion and Janet Yellen, in her first public comments since taking over for Ben Bernanke said that she supports Bernanke's view that the economy is strengthening enough to withstand a pullback in the Fed's stimulus. The House of Representatives voted to suspend the US debt limit until March 2015, giving a win to President and Democrats in Congress who insisted that the ceiling be lifted without conditions.
After the market hours, on Wednesday, the government unveiled the data on inflation based on the combined consumer price index for urban and rural India for January 2014 eased more than anticipated to a 24-month low of 8.79% in January, helped by moderating food prices.
In spite of the favourable inflation data on Wednesday, market was pulled down on Thursday. Nifty closed at 6,001 (down 83 points or 1.36%).
Standard Chartered Bank estimates that the government will announce on Monday gross borrowing for 2014-15 of Rs5.8 trillion to Rs6 trillion, based on the government's fiscal deficit target of 4.2% of GDP. A United Nations report said that the government is unlikely to meet the fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of the GDP in the current fiscal due to low growth and high subsidies.
On Friday, inflation based on the wholesale price index provisionally rose 5.05% in January 2014 as compared to 6.16% (provisional) for December 2013 and 7.31% in January 2013. On global front, on one hand receipts at US retailers declined 0.4% in January and the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 to 339,000 in the week ended 8 February while on the other hand Growth in Germany, France and the Netherlands beat economists’ estimates. Nifty closed at 6,048 (up 47 points or 0.79%).
For the week, among the other indices on the NSE, the top two performers were IT (2%) and Auto (2%) while the worst two performers were Media (4%) and PSU Bank (3%).
Among the Nifty stocks, the top five stocks for the week were Tata Motors (8%); HCL Technologies (7%); D L F (5%); ICICI Bank (3%) and ONGC (3%) while the top five losers were Cipla (10%); Ambuja Cements (7%); Hindalco Industries (6%); Bajaj Auto (5%) and BHEL (5%).
Of the 1,350 companies on the NSE, 443 companies closed in the green, 858 companies closed in the red, while 49 companies closed flat.
Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were:
|Top ML sectors||Worst ML sectors|
|Software & IT Services||2%||Textiles||-4%|
Nifty has to stay above 6,035 for the upmove to gain strength
Until half way through the noon session the domestic indices were moving in a range bound manner. After which the benchmark made a plunge in the negative during which it hit the day’s low. But they made a quick recovery and closed in the positive covering up more than half of the yesterday’s loss.
The Sensex opened at 20,265 hit a low of 20,149 from where it bounced back to hit a high of 20,392 and closed at 20,367 (up 173 points or 0.86%) while the Nifty opened at 6,024 and moved in the range of 5,985 and 6,056. The Nifty closed at 6,048 (up 47 points or 0.79%). The NSE recorded a volume of 47.49 crore shares.
Market awaited the inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for January 2014. Inflation based on the WPI provisionally rose 5.05% in January 2014 as compared to 6.16% (provisional) for December 2013 and 7.31% in January 2013.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram will present the Vote-on-Account or interim budget for the first four months of 2014 - 15 on 17 February 2014.
US indices closed in the positive on Thursday. Receipts at US retailers declined 0.4% in January amid bad weather and uneven progress in the labor market, a report yesterday showed, signaling the economy was off to a slow start this year. The decline was the biggest since June 2012. A Labor Department report showed the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 to 339,000 in the week ended 8 February.
However the earnings and a $45.2 billion takeover of Time Warner Cable Inc. overshadowed an unanticipated drop in retail sales.
Except for Nikkei 225 (down 1.53%) and Straits Times (down 0.04%) all the other Asian indices closed in the negative. Shanghai Composite was the top gainer which rose 0.83%.
European indices were trading mostly in the green while US Futures are trading marginally higher.
Growth in Germany, France and the Netherlands beat economists’ estimates in the fourth quarter and Italy resumed expansion in a sign the fragile euro-area recovery is gaining traction. German gross domestic product rose 0.4% from the third quarter, when it increased by 0.3%. GDP rose 0.3% in France and 0.7% in the Netherlands, while the Italian economy grew 0.1%.