No sign of GDP rebound in the next two quarters

GDP growth for the quarters ending September 2012 and December 2012 will be sub 5% as weak agriculture and slowdown in external demand hamper growth, says Morgan Stanley Research

GDP (gross domestic product) growth for the quarters ending September 2012 and December 2012 will be sub-5% as weak agriculture and slowdown in external demand hamper growth, according to Morgan Stanley. “The poor agriculture growth, weak investment trend, a sluggish DM (developed market) growth outlook and weakness in the service sector are the key reasons affecting our base case outlook for FY13. We maintain our GDP growth forecast for FY13 at 5.1%,” says Morgan Stanley Research.
While IP (industrial production) growth has improved in August, this pickup in IP growth has been largely factored in the GDP growth estimates, says Morgan Stanley. Industrial production growth accelerated to +2.7% y-o-y (year-on-year) in August 2012 from -0.2% y-o-y in July 2012, revised downwards from +0.1% y-o-y stated earlier, reports Morgan Stanley. This was higher than consensus expectation as per Bloomberg survey of a growth of 1% y-o-y and the Morgan Stanley expectation of 1.5-2.5%. On a seasonally adjusted sequential basis, the IP index grew by 2%month-on-month (versus -0.4%m-o-m in July). On a 3-MMA (three months moving average) basis, IP growth remained steady at an average of +0.2% y-o-y during the three-months ended August 2012 compared with the three months ended July 2012. 
In the manufacturing segment, output growth accelerated to 2.9% y-o-y, as compared with a fall of 0.4% y-o-y in July. Within manufacturing, industry group publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media contributed most to the improvement, growing by 15.4% y-o-y followed by radio, TV and communication equipment and apparatus (14.5%), medical precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks (14.4%) and wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur (10.3%). On the other hand, office accounting and computing machinery contributed most to the weakness, declining by -13.1% y-o-y, followed by motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (-9.5%), other transport equipment (-7.6%) and tobacco products (-5.1%). Mining output also improved, growing by 2% y-o-y versus -1.6%  y-o-y in July whereas electricity output growth slowed to 1.9% y-o-y compared with 2.8% y-o-y in the previous month, reports Morgan Stanley Research.
Consumer goods output growth rebounded sharply to 5% y-o-y in August versus 0.5% y-o-y in July, reports Morgan Stanley Research. Within consumer goods, consumer durables output improved to 4% y-o-y in August, versus 0.6% y-o-y in July, and consumer non-durables output rebounded to 5.8% y-o-y in August versus 0.3% y-o-y in July.
Capital goods output declined by 1.7% y-o-y in August, as compared with the 4.5% y-o-y decline that we saw in July. Moreover, this improvement has been there despite an unfavourable base effect, as capital goods output grew by 4% in August 2011, as compared with a 13.7% decline in July 2011, reports Morgan Stanley Research. Nonetheless, capital goods output remained a drag on overall IP as IP ex-capital goods grew by 3.4% y-o-y in August versus 0.5% y-o-y in July.
Basic goods output growth accelerated to 2.8% y-o-y in August versus 1% y-o-y in the previous month, and intermediate goods output recovered to 1.9% y-o-y in August versus fall of -1.2% y-o-y in the previous month, adds Morgan Stanley Research.


Fund houses increase exit loads on equity schemes

Under the new structure, an exit load of 3% will be charged if units are redeemed or switched out within six months from the date of allotment, 2% if units are redeemed or switched out up to 12 months and 1% if units are redeemed or switched out up to 18 months

New Delhi: Looking to discourage investors from quick sell-offs, fund houses have begun revising upwards their exit loads, or...

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NCDs Vs corporate fixed deposits?

A number of companies are trying to catch the attention of investors by offering NCDs at high interest rate. Are they safe? How are they different from corporate fixed deposits?

As investors you should investigate about the features of different products and the terms and conditions they operate under. It is also important for you to understand whether they fulfil your goals of investment and also whether they are tax-friendly enough. A lot of companies are coming up with NCDs or non-convertible debentures including Muthoot Finance, Religare Finvest and India Infoline, among others. You may also have noticed that many companies offer fixed deposits (FDs). These two investments are similar. Both offer higher returns than bank deposits. But there are important differences.

  • NCDs are more liquid than corporate fixed deposits

NCDs are more liquid because they can be traded in the secondary market in demat form once they are listed in the stock exchange. However, corporate FDs cannot be liquidated as easily. You will have to approach the company in case you want to liquidate your fixed deposit. The process of liquidation with corporate FDs is long and tedious enough and could involve a penalty for premature withdrawal, so it is better you buy corporate fixed deposits for a tenure that matches the timing of your goal or requirement, so you do not have to liquidate it pre-maturely.


  • NCDs are secured against the company’s assets while corporate fixed deposits are unsecured

Most NCDs are secured; the nature of the security can vary across companies as well as across issues of the same company. They could be secured with “first pari passu charge” or else maybe in the form of a “subordinate debt”, but corporate FDs are always unsecured, unlike bank fixed deposits, which are secured for Rs1 lakh. This means that in case the company goes bankrupt, the investors of NCDs with ‘first charge’ will be paid back before the NCDs of the nature of “subordinate debt” through sale proceeds of company’s assets and only when all secured investments are paid back, investors of corporate FDs will be paid. Thus corporate FDs are much more risky than NCDs. In practice, however, as holders of NCDs you may not get much because when a company in India goes bankrupt, the promoters leave nothing behind for even lenders.


  • NCDs are subject to interest rate risks while corporate fixed deposits are not

Since NCDs can be sold or traded in the secondary market on the stock exchange, the price will depend upon the market interest rates at the time of sale. If they are carried till maturity, they work like corporate FDs and do not get affected by market interest rates.


  • Credit rating is mandatory for NCDs and not for corporate FDs

Even if the issuer takes a rating, it is not mandatory to disclose it for FDs, which makes the product more opaque in comparison to NCDs, where it is mandatory to take a rating of at least one rating agency. With the rating being available, you as an investor, get a clearer picture of the risk level involved in the particular issue. With that information at hand, you are in a better position to take better investment decision.


  • Tax implication is different for NCDs and corporate FDs

TDS is applicable to corporate FDs while it is not applicable to NCDs because the latter are issued in demat form and are listed on the stock exchange. However, interest earned on NCDs would be subject to income tax at normal rates under the head of “income from other sources”. Apart from that, capital gains tax is also applicable if you decide to sell the NCD at the stock exchange, with short-term capital gains tax being applicable in case you sell it within 12 months from the date of allotment and long-term capital gains tax if you sell it after 12 months from the date of allotment, with indexation or without indexation, as the case may be.

An overall quick comparison shows that NCDs are a better products to invest in, compared to corporate FDs. However, both are risky. If the NCDs are not from the top-rated companies, you should strongly consider keeping your money in bank fixed deposits.

To read about perils of NCDs, click here.

To read corporate bonds, another product category by companies, please click here.



Adi Daruwalla

5 years ago

ncd'S HAVE TO BE MARKED AS sECURED OR uNSECURED BY THE ISSUER I.E. CORPORATE so they can be Secured NCD and unsecured NCD. it is better to purchase the secured NCD rather than an Unsecured product.

Vikas Gupta

5 years ago

I think RBI had raised the FD Limit to 2,00,000 for Guarantee Purpose.



In Reply to Vikas Gupta 5 years ago

Hello Sir,
The max limit is still Rs 1 lakh. Please visit the RBI notification regarding the same.

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