Nifty may find minor support at 4,800 and then at 4,700
Global concern as well as dismal domestic economic indicators, which were released in the week, pulled the market down. The weak rupee was also seen as a deterrent. Marketmen may now look at RBI’s quarterly policy review, slated to take place on 18th June, for some growth-boosting initiatives.
The market closed the week with a loss of 2%, making it the fifth successive weekly fall. The Sensex settled 253 points down at 15,965 and the Nifty lost 79 points to 4,842. Presently the market is in an uncertain situation. Look out for Nifty finding minor support at 4,800 and then at 4,700. However, if the index breaks this level then we may see the benchmark going back to 4,300.
The market settled higher on Monday as the rupee strengthened against the dollar and on firm global cues. On Tuesday, the indices pared all their gains in late trade on concerns about domestic growth. The market settled lower on Wednesday on weak corporate earnings from Tata Motors, a weak rupee and dismal global cues.
Lower-than-expected economic indicators led the market lower on Thursday. The indices continued their losing streak on Friday as investors were concerned about the pace of economic growth on the back of weak indicators.
In the sectoral space, BSE IT gained 1% while BSE Auto tumbled 6% and BSE Capital Goods fell by 3%.
The top Sensex gainers in the week were Hindalco Industries, Tata Power (up 4% each), Coal India (up 3%), NTPC and Wipro (up 2%). The key losers were Tata Motors (down 17%), Jindal Steel & Power, Sterlite Industries (down 6% each), Larsen & Toubro and ONGC (down 4% each).
The Nifty leaders were Tata Power, Hindalco Ind, Ambuja Cements (up 4% each), Coal India (up 3%) and NTPC (up 2%). Tata Motors (down 17%), Reliance Infrastructure, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Siemens (down 7% each) and Sterlite Ind (down 6%) settled at the bottom of the index.
India’s GDP slowed to a nine-year low, both in the March quarter at 5.3% as well as in 2011-12 at 6.5%. Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said: “GDP growth is the lowest in contemporary period. It has been substantially because of the very poor performance of the manufacturing sector”.
This apart, the growth rate of eight core sectors halved to 2.2% in April from 4.2% in the same month last year. The growth in March too moderated to 2.2%, from 6.5% in the same month last year. Economist said the poor performance of core industries clearly points to economic slowdown and will have implications for industrial production data to be released on 12th June.
On the other hand, the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—a measure of factory production—slipped slightly to 54.8 in May, from 54.9 in April. “Activity in the manufacturing sector kept up the pace in May with output, quantity of purchases and employment expanding at a faster pace. However, new orders decelerated slightly led by domestic orders,” said Leif Eskesen, chief economist for India & ASEAN at HSBC.
Exports grew by a meagre 3.2% year-on-year to $24.4 billion in April 2012. Sharp deceleration in import growth to 3.8% to $37.9 billion resulted in trade deficit narrowing to $13.2 billion, the lowest in the last seven months. The meagre growth in exports prompted a worried government to state it may extend sops for labour intensive sectors like textiles in the next few days.
India’s fiscal deficit during 2011-12 worked out to be 5.7% of the GDP, lower than 5.9% projected in the revised estimates in the Budget. Fiscal deficit, the difference between the government’s total receipts and expenditure, stood at Rs5,09,731 crore in 2011-12, as per the provisional data released by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) earlier this week.
On the global front, the US economy saw an addition of 69,000 new jobs in May, fewer than what analysts had expected. Also the unemployment rate in the world’s largest economy rose to 8.2%. This along with lower Chinese and European factory output data and the unending debt issues in Eurozone countries is slowing down the world economy.
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