Stocks
Nifty, Sensex momentum is up, but the market is overbought – Monday closing report
We had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were to move sideways to down. The major indices of the Indian stock markets rallied to make handsome gains on Monday over Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in the course of Monday’s trading are given in the table below:
 
 
Positive global cues and fresh buying support lifted the Indian equity markets on Monday. The equity markets closed the day's trade with healthy gains, as buying support was seen in interest sensitive stocks like automobiles and banks.  The BSE market breadth was skewed in favour of the bulls -- with 1,718 advances and 1,040 declines.
 
Iron ore producer NMDC Ltd. on Monday said its production has grown by about 28% and sales have increased nearly 17% in the April-June quarter of the current fiscal. According to provisional data, the mining behemoth produced 7.63 million tonnes (mt) of iron ore during the April-June quarter of the current fiscal, up 28% from 5.93 mt produced in the same period last year. Its sales stood at 7.77 mt in the period under review as compared to 6.65 mt sold in the corresponding period last year, the company said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Its production stood at 2.64 mt during June 2016 while its sales during the month were at 2.79 mt, it said. On a month-on-month basis, its June production, however, fell by 5.37% while its sales increased by close to 15%. In May, production and sales of the largest iron ore producers were at 2.79 mt and 2.43 mt respectively. The shares of NMDC closed at Rs96.25, up 1.69% on the BSE.
 
The UK's decision to exit the European Union will not have any significant credit impact on India and other countries in the Asia Pacific region, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday. However, in case of countries where fiscal and monetary policy space is constrained, a shift in portfolio and/or banking flows in some Asia Pacific markets might hurt growth, said the credit rating agency.  While the fiscal and monetary policy space is constrained in India its exposure to external financing is limited, it said in its latest report.
 
Around 45,000 employees in the five associate banks of the State Bank of India (SBI) will strike work on Tuesday, said a leader of the All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA). "Only the workmen (clerical and messenger cadre) will be on strike. However, work in the branches will be affected," C.H. Venkatachalam, the AIBEA General Secretary, told IANS. He said the employees of SBI would not be on strike. SBI shares closed at Rs224.60, up 2.84% on the BSE.
 
Fast Moving Consumer Goods major Emami Ltd will launch more weather agnostic products to de-risk itself from meteorological vagaries as erratic weather affected its sales, the company's annual report said. "... a majority of our products are seasonal, erratic weather also affected our sales. In view of this, we balanced our portfolio through the introduction of non-season (perennial) products," company's Managing Director S.K. Goenka said in its annual report released on Sunday. "Over the next few years, we expect to launch more weather-agnostic products to de-risk ourselves from meteorological vagaries," he said. The company remains bullish in the rural market and the business contributed nearly half of our revenues in the last fiscal (2015-16). Emami shares closed at Rs1,108.20, up 0.98% on the BSE.
 
Predicting data revenues for telecom operators to double to $11 billion by 2017-18, a top brokerage says the much-awaited commercial entry of Reliance Jio would drive the market further and be best placed with Bharti Airtel to gain from the upcoming boom. In its latest report, CLSA also says even as existing operators have begun to focus on content, the key differentiator will be network delivery, or the quality and download speed -- areas that have intensified ahead of Reliance Jio’s entry.  "Given that each operator’s content is not exclusive and the service differentiation will be led by network experience, operators are rolling out 3G/4G at an accelerated pace," the brokerage's study says.  "Also given that content with each operator is not exclusive and can be replicated, we believe content is not going to be the key differentiator among operators," it says, more specifically. Bharti Airtel shares closed at Rs359.75, up 1.34% on the BSE.
 
The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
 
The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:
 

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Banks to report better earnings in June quarter: Report
Earnings of banks in the second half of FY15-16 were marred by asset quality review (AQR)-related stress addition and provisioning. According to a report from Motilal Oswal Securities, banks are expected to report better Quarter-on-Quarter (Q-o-Q) earnings in the June 2016 quarter. However, for state-owned banks’ net profit growth is expected to be disappointing. Increased activity on monetization of non-core assets, reduction in cost of funds and bond gains are likely to support earnings, the report cites. Net interest margins (NIMs) are expected to remain stable Q-o-Q. The Indian government’s focus on fiscal discipline and addressing policy roadblocks, the central banks help to address stress issues in the system as well as banks’ intense efforts on recoveries and deleveraging of corporate balance sheets are a positive for banks and should reflect in their financials.
 
Improving auto and commercial vehicle sales, higher cement dispatches, RBI’s consumer confidence survey, and higher activity in stalled projects, point toward a gradual recovery. The moderate demand environment is likely to result in 10-11% Y-o-Y deposit and loan growth in in the June 2016 quarter. Saddled with NPAs, state-owned banks’ growth is likely to fall short of the industry average led by capital conservation efforts and weak corporate loan growth of ~3% YoY as of May 2016. Private banks’ growth should remain healthy at ~18%, helped by strong retail growth, especially auto and commercial vehicle loans and refinancing.
Core revenue growth is likely to remain muted Y-o-Y, led by moderate balance sheet growth, declining margins Y-o-Y and moderate income fee growth. The brokerage firm expects private banks to continue to outperform state-owned banks. Apart from continued asset quality stress, weak expectations and the focus on balance sheet health would drive banks to make high provisions, which could impact earnings. Over the past year, Indian banks (mainly state-owned) have sold assets worth approximately Rs600 billion to asset reconstruction companies (ARCs). Write-downs and the resultant provisioning for the same (as per the RBI’s guidelines) would begin over the coming quarters.
 
The brokerage firm expects yields to decline Q-o-Q, hence profit on sale of investments to support earnings. Over the June 2016 quarter, yields remained largely stable; however, volatility was high, which will benefit trading income. Banks are expected to shift part of their portfolios from held-to-maturity (HTM) to available-for-sale (AFS) in the September 2016 quarter. To provide for balance sheet stress, banks are likely to monetize strategic investments, repatriate profit on foreign operations and book trading gains on the sale of HTM security in open market operations (OMOs) of banks.
 
Though there may be a sharp fall in NIMs as compared to a year ago, NIMs should remain stable Q-o-Q. Mostly because banks have largely refrained from cutting the base rate in the March 2016 quarter, which would support loan yields. Along with this cost of deposits has continued to fall. While there are positive factors at play for NIMs, intense competition in the refinancing business and retail loans is likely to keep incremental lending yields under pressure.
 
Gross stress addition is likely to remain elevated Y-o-Y, however, it is expected to moderate sharply as compared in the March 2016 quarter. High stress addition in the quarter will be led by a) seasonal factors b) lagged impact of the RBI’s AQR c) banks proactively classifying certain assets based on inherent weakness in the account, and d) non-fund-based exposures of some corporates turning into NPAs, cites the report. Banks have significantly increased efforts on the recovery front, which should provide some respite on headline GNPAs.
 
Similarly, asset quality stress is likely to be elevated compared to a year ago, but is expected to decline sharply Q-o-Q.  RBI’s tough stance on the clean-up of balance sheets by March 2017 would weigh on banks’ asset quality. However, following the clean-up exercise taken by banks, the stress is expected to come down sharply Q-o-Q.
 

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COMMENTS

B. Yerram Raju

8 months ago

Hopefully Yes. But the risk appetite continues to be low. Unless Banks rejig their training programs and change the mindset of persons in-charge of credit portfolio across the cadres, flow of credit to the needy sectors would be hindering the growth of economy.

SBI silent on board meeting that granted Mallya loans, to avoid probe issues: RTI Activist
The State Bank of India has declined to reveal the details of its board meeting in which loans were sanctioned to liquor baron Vijay Mallya, claiming that it could impede probe, an activist said here on Monday. Activist Anil Galgali, who had sought the information under Right To Information Act on the SBI's board meeting, has been spurned by the bank as it may lead to future hurdles for nabbing Mallya or filing cases against the former chief of defunct Kingfisher Airlines Ltd.
 
"My queries under the RTI pertained to the total quantum of loans extended to Mallya, the SBI board's agenda, proposal, approvals and minutes of the meeting in which the loan was sanctioned," Galgali said.
 
The SBI deputy general manager and public information officer of the Stressed Assets Management Branch said that the case is sub-judice, pending before an inquiry commission, and derived exemption from disclosure under the RTI Act's Section 8(1)(h).
 
This section indicates that the information which could impede the process of investigations or apprehension or prosecution of offenders, can be declined.
Galgali found it surprising that the SBI has even refused to disclose the names of the directors who attended the board meeting in which Mallya's loan proposals were finalised.
 
"It is important to also expose the people who helped defaulters like Mallya and for the SBI to provide details of its board meetings in which the loans were sanctioned," Galgali added.
 
He has now filed a first appeal challenging the SBI's response to his RTI query, arguing that since the meeting's agenda, approval resolution and minutes are already circulated in the banks, it would not hamper the ongoing procedures.
 
"The SBI authorities are also equally responsible for the loss of public funds for sanctioning huge loans to such people and should be arrested and prosecuted," Galgali added.
 
Disclaimer: Information, facts or opinions expressed in this news article are presented as sourced from IANS and do not reflect views of Moneylife and hence Moneylife is not responsible or liable for the same. As a source and news provider, IANS is responsible for accuracy, completeness, suitability and validity of any information in this article.

 

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COMMENTS

B. Yerram Raju

8 months ago

Annual Report of the SBI relating to the year of sanction would contain the names of the directors on the Board of SBI at the material time. Then one can easily ascertain who were absent in the Board that approved the proposal. For sure, there would be one RBi representative and two Central Government representatives. The Board has taken KF Brand as collateral!! How it valued and who valued at the material time the Brand also matters. It is such issues that may hurt the legal proceedings?

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