Nifty, Sensex may try to rally midweek: Weekly Market report

Nifty has a strong support around 7,450


We had mentioned in last week’s closing report (25 July 2014) that, if the NSE's CNX Nifty is not able to close above 7,840 by Tuesday, the indices will head towards 7,600.


During the week that ended on 1st August, Nifty closed at 7,603 after hitting a weekly low of 7,594. The S&P BSE 30-share Sensex closed the week at 25,480.84 (down 646 points or 2.47%), while the NSE’s 50-share CNX Nifty closed 188 points  or 2.41% down.


We expect the market to move sideways over the next week. The first support for Nifty is at around 7,535-7,575. The second support is at around 7,450.

On Monday, after a range bound beginning, Nifty suddenly weakened and plunged lower and closed at its lowest close in five days. Nifty closed at 7,749 (down 42 points or 0.54%). India's measures for raising the investment limit for foreign institutional investors in government bonds is a positive for the country's credit profile, since it will help stabilise domestic interest and currency rates, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday. Moody's rates India at a "Baa3" rating, the lowest investment-grade rating, and a "stable" outlook.

India's stock markets remained closed on Tuesday for Ramzan Eid.

Wednesday was the only day during the week when the indices managed to close in the green. Nifty closed at 7,791 (up 43 points or 0.55%). US gave out mixed data on Tuesday. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 90.9, the highest reading since October 2007. Residential real-estate prices advanced 9.3% in the 12 months ended May, the slowest pace in more than a year, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities.

Nifty again resumed its downward journey on Thursday, closing at 7,721 (down 70 points or 0.90%). The global rating agency Fitch Ratings, retained the 'BBB-' sovereign rating - the lowest investment grade - for India and also said a revision will depend on the government's efforts to usher in bold reforms. The agency has also retained a 'stable' outlook for the country's ratings.

Weakness in the European market and selling by foreign investors in the domestic market, played negatively on market sentiments on Friday. On Thursday, the foreign investors were net sellers of Rs1,654.86 crore equities, their highest sales since 21 June 2013. Nifty closed at 7,603 (down 119 points or 1.54%), this was the highest percentage loss since 8 July 2014. HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index reached a 17-month peak of 53 in July, up from 51.5 in June.

India's fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal year is "daunting", finance minister Arun Jaitley said on Friday. The month of June 2014 recorded a fiscal deficit of Rs57,022 crore, against a fiscal deficit of Rs1.27 lakh crore in May 2014.

For this week, among the other indices on the NSE, the top two performers were Consumption (0.16%) and MNC (0.14%), while the worst two performers were Infrastructure (4%) and Energy (4%).

Among the Nifty stocks, the top five stocks for the week were Bharti Airtel (7%); Hindustan Unilever (4%); Bank of Baroda (4%); Punjab National Bank (3%) and Lupin (3%). The top five losers were Larsen & Toubro (11%); Jindal Steel & Power (6%); Tata Power (6%); NTPC (6%) and Coal India  (5%).

Of the 1,438 companies on the NSE, 427 companies closed in the green, 984 companies closed in the red, while 27 companies closed flat.

Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, the top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were:



Nifty, Sensex may put in a short rebound on Monday– Friday closing report

Nifty has a strong support at at 7,575

Huge selling by foreign investors on Thursday adversely affected the market sentiment on Friday. The Indian indices were under added pressure due to a huge decline in not only in the US and European markets but also severe weakness in Europe and later deep decline in US premarket futures. Back home, foreign investors were net sellers of Rs1,654.86 crore, their highest selling done since 21 June 2013. Both S&P BSE Sensex and NSE's CNX Nifty recorded the highest percentage loss since 8 July 2014.

Sensex and the Nifty traded in the negative for entire trading session today. Sensex opened at 25,754 and traded in the range of 25,459 and 25,863 before  closing at 25,481 (down 414 points or 1.60%). Nifty opened at 7,663 and traded between 7,594 and 7,717 and closed at 7,603 (down 119 points or 1.54%). The NSE recorded a volume of 96.12 crore shares. India VIX rose 10.11% to close at 15.2200.

Today the Indian Rupee closed at 60.851 against the dollar, its weakest since 25 April 2014 when it closed at 61.1163.

Markit Economics on Friday said that the HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached a 17-month peak of 53 in July, up from 51.5 in June. Details within the survey showed that all monitored categories witnessed a rise in output and order flows. However, employment deteriorated fractionally, while inflationary pressures continued to emerge, particularly on the supply-side.

The index of the eight core industries rose 7.3% in June 2014 over June 2013, data released by the government after trading hours on Thursday showed. The eight core industries have a combined weight of 37.9% in the Index of Industrial Production.
India's fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal year is "daunting", finance minister Arun Jaitley said on Friday. The fiscal deficit for the first quarter of the fiscal year ending 31 March 2015 (FY 2015) was at Rs2.98 lakh crore, which amounted to 56.1% of the budget estimates, data released by the government after market hours on Thursday, 31 July 2014, showed. The month of June 2014 recorded a fiscal deficit of Rs57,022 crore, against a fiscal deficit of Rs1.27 lakh crore in May 2014.

US Secretary of State John Kerry told Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday that India's refusal to sign a global trade deal sent the wrong signal, and he urged New Delhi to work to resolve the row as soon as possible. A World Trade Organisation (WTO) pact to ease worldwide customs rules collapsed late on Thursday over India's demands for concessions on agricultural stockpiling.

Maruti Suzuki (2.48%) was the top gainer in the Sensex 30 pack. Maruti Suzuki reported a 21.7% increase in its total sales for July 2014 at 101,380 units against 83,299 units in July 2013. The domestic sales rose by 19.9% during the month to 90,093 units while the exports rose 38.4% to 11,287 units.

Gail (3.07%) was among the top two losers in Sensex 30 stock. Gail on Thursday clarified that under the advice of Ministry of Petroleum & Natural gas, GAIL will shortly come out with a LNG ship charter hire tender specifying, inter-alia, that one ship out of every lot of three ships each would be built in India. Quotes for three such lots of three ships each would be specified in the tender. It is proposed to allow six years delivery period for the Indian built ships as against two and half years for the foreign built ships.

Union Bank of India (3.06%) was among the top two gainers in the ‘A’ group on the BSE. It has posted a net profit of Rs664.11 crore for the quarter ended June 2014 as compared to Rs560.22 crore for the quarter ended June 2013. Total income of Union Bank has increased from Rs7,613.53 crore to Rs8,547.56 crore for the relevant period.

Titan Company (4.37%) was among the top three losers in the ‘A’ group on the BSE. Net profit for June 2014 quarter of Titan fell to Rs177.27 crore from the net profit Rs 182.48 crore for June 2013 quarter. Sales also decreased from Rs3,107.67 crore to Rs2,891.44 crore for the relevant period.

US indices closed Thursday in the red.

Argentina missed a deadline yesterday to pay $539 million in interest after two full days of negotiations in New York failed to produce an accord with creditors. S&P declaring Argentina in default melded with concern over Europe's debt position as Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo SA was told to raise capital.

All the Asian indices which were trading today closed in the red. NZSE 50     (1.12%) was the top loser.

China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index increased to 51.7 in July from 51 the previous month, according to data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics. A private gauge of factory activity from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 51.7 last month from 50.7 in June. Levels of 50 or higher signal expansion.

European indices were trading in the red. US premarket Futures were trading deeply in the red until the the Labour Department announced that US added 209,000 jobs in July. On this news, the futures recovered almost all their losses.


Sahara gets 10 days to negotiate sale of overseas property

Sahara group's jailed chief Subrata Roy would stay in a conference hall at Tihar Jail complex for 10 working days from 5th August and negotiate with prospective buyers the sale of the group's assets in London and New York


The Supreme Court on Friday gave 10 working days from 5th August to Sahara group chief Subrata Roy to negotiate the sale of the group's offshore property from a conference room in Tihar Jail.


The apex court also allowed Roy to stay in a conference hall in the Tihar jail complex for ten working days to negotiate with prospective buyers of the group's assets.


The Court issued direction to the Delhi government to notify the conference hall as 'jail' so that daily movements between barracks and the conference hall would not be required and negotiations could be done beyond 8pm, the official lock-in time of the jail.


Meanwhile, SEBI counsel Arvind Datar raised concerns over the swelling dues of Sahara group. He said, as per the Supreme Court's order in August 2012, two Sahara group companies were to refund Rs24,029 crore with 15% interest, which has now gone to over Rs39,000 crore. "Please ask them (Sahara) to submit a plan when they are selling and what," Datar requested to the Bench.


"SEBI's concern is legitimate," Justice TS Thakur said, adding, "the bail, when it materialises would be interim and if the remaining sum is not paid within reasonable time, the accused may have to return to jail."


On Wednesday, the apex court allowed Roy, who has been in jail for the last five months, to use the conference room in Tihar jail complex for negotiation with potential buyers of his luxury hotels in New York and London to raise Rs10,000 crore to get regular bail.


Tihar jail authorities suggested that Roy can hold consultations either in the conference room or the guest house within the jail complex with a condition that people would be allowed to come inside jail only between 6am to 8pm and internet connection would be provided by it.


Opting for the option of a conference hall in the Tihar jail court complex, senior counsel Harish Salve, appearing for Roy, had expressed some difficulty with the lock out time of 6am and lock in time of 8pm because it did not facilitate negotiations with buyers or lenders in New York.


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