Stocks
Nifty, Sensex may pause for breath – Monday closing report
We had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex might head higher. The major indices in the Indian stock markets continued to rise on Monday from last week’s rally and closed the day with minor gains over Friday’s close. The major indices have gained for the fifth straight trading day and their trends during Monday’s trading are given in the table below:
 
 
Short covering, along with expectations of healthy quarterly results and stable crude oil prices, pushed the Indian equity markets marginally higher on Monday. The key indices oscillated in a narrow range following three days of sharp up-move and made marginal gains during the mid-afternoon trade session. Buying was witnessed in automobile, metals, and information technology (IT) stocks. The key Indian indices had ended on a higher note during the previous trade session on May 27. They also touched their new six-month intra-day high levels on Friday. Besides, flat-to-positive Asian markets, short covering, stable crude oil prices and expectations of improved fourth quarter earnings aided the benchmarks to rise. 
 
However, gains were capped due to weak rupee and hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve on a possible June rate hike. The US Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen last Friday hinted towards a possible June rate hike. A hike in the US interest rates is expected to lead away Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) from emerging markets such as India. In addition, caution prevailed ahead of the upcoming release of the major macro-economic data like the fourth quarter GDP (gross domestic product), eight core industries (ECI) and the PMI (purchasing manager’s index). These key data points can give further cues towards a rate decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monetary policy meet scheduled on June 7.
 
State-run National Aluminium Company (Nalco) on Sunday posted a 41.4% drop in standalone net profit, at Rs.207.94 crore, for the fourth quarter ended March, as compared to a net profit of Rs.354.87 crore in the same period a year ago. The Odisha-headquartered Nalco said in a stock exchange filing that its total income was up 4 percent at Rs.1,874.36 crore during the quarter in question, as compared to Rs.1,801.25 crore in the corresponding period of 2014-15. For the full fiscal 2015-16, the company's standalone net profit dipped 44.6 percent to Rs.731.01 crore, as against Rs.1,321.85 crore in the previous fiscal. Total income for the entire financial year also declined 7.6% to Rs.6,816 crore, as against Rs.7,382.81 crore in 2014-15. The company board has recommended payment of a final dividend of 75 paise per share (15% on face value of Rs.5 each) on the equity share capital, the filing said. This is in addition to the interim dividend of Rs.1.25 per share (25% on face value of Rs.5 each) already paid during March 2016. Nalco shares closed at Rs41.80, down 0.12% on the BSE.
 
Coal India Ltd. (CIL) on Sunday reported a marginal rise of 0.22% in its consolidated net profit at Rs. 4,247.93 crore for the fourth quarter that ended on March 31 as compared to Rs.4,238.55 crore in the year before. The firm will increase its coal prices by 6.29% over the current level from May 30. The revision is applicable to all its subsidiaries for regulated and non-regulated sectors, the CIL said on Sunday. "Due to this revision, CIL will earn approx. additional revenue of Rs.3,234 crore for the balance period of financial year 2016-17," the company said in a regulatory filing at the BSE. It said the board has also approved the differential price for non-regulated sector at a reduced rate of 20% over the price of regulated sector for G6 to G17 grades of coal for all subsidiaries of it. Net sales for the quarter fell slightly by 0.07 percent at Rs.20,759.45 crore as against Rs.20,774.22 crore in the corresponding period last year.  Miner's total income from operation in the March quarter stood at Rs.21,402.75 crore as against Rs.21,339.55 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. The miner posted a net profit of Rs.14,274.33 crore in 2015-16, up 3.9% from Rs.13,726.70 crore in 2014-15. In the January-March quarter, it produced 165.24 million tonnes (mt) of coal as compared to 151.86 mt in the corresponding period last year. Its off-take in the quarter under review stood at 145.22 mt as against 134.72 mt. In 2015-16, Coal India produced 536.51 mt of coal against a target of 550 mt and its off-take stood at 532.26. It has set a production target of 598.60 million tonnes in the current fiscal. For FY17, the target of off-take of CIL was set at 598.61 mt. It produced 40.09 mt of coal in April as against the target of 44.48 mt, achieving 90 percent of the target set for the month. CIL's off-take also fell by 2.5% in the April as compared to corresponding month last year, at 42.45 mt against the target of 51.46 mt. Coal India shares closed at Rs292.05, up 3.80% on the BSE.
 
China's central bank on Monday pumped more money into the market to ease a liquidity strain. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 65 billion yuan ($9 billion) in seven-day reverse repurchase agreements (repo), a process in which central banks purchase securities from banks with an agreement to resell them in the future. 
 
The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan, weakened to 294 basis points on Monday to 6.5784 against the US dollar, the lowest since February 2011. According to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System, the fall came after US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said at Harvard University on Friday that an interest rate hike in the next few months would probably be appropriate if economic data improves. Her comments boosted the US dollar against other major currencies.
 
The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
 
The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:
 
 

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Maruti Suzuki suspends production over component supplies
Automobile major Maruti Suzuki on Monday said that it has suspended production of cars at its Manesar and Gurgaon facilities, due to component supply constraints.
 
According to the company, a fire incident at its component manufacturer Subros' production facility on Sunday (May 29) has disrupted supplies.
 
"Owing to an unfortunate incident of fire at the Manesar facilities of our supplier Subros Limited on Sunday (May 29), supplies of components from that plant have been disrupted," the company said in a statement.
 
"As a consequence, Maruti Suzuki India Limited will have to temporarily suspend manufacture of cars at its facilities in Manesar and Gurgaon, starting second half Monday (May 30)."
 
The statement said that Subros and Maruti Suzuki were jointly assessing the extent of damage the fire caused to essential equipment. 
 
"We are also examining the options available to start supply of components from other facilities. Production will resume as soon as components become available," the company added.
 
Disclaimer: Information, facts or opinions expressed in this news article are presented as sourced from IANS and do not reflect views of Moneylife and hence Moneylife is not responsible or liable for the same. As a source and news provider, IANS is responsible for accuracy, completeness, suitability and validity of any information in this article.

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COMMENTS

B Pugazhendhi

12 months ago

Is this the flip side of the 'just-in-time' concept?

India's Gross Value Added growth to inch up to 7.2% in March quarter

This week, India will be announcing its gross domestic product (GDP) and balance of payments (BOP) numbers for the March quarter as well as for FY2016. Due to favourable base, India's gross value added (GVA) growth is likely to pick up and the country will also see current account surplus to rise in fourth quarter, its first in past decade, says a research note.

 

 

Religare Capital Markets Ltd, in a report says, "We expect GVA growth to pick up to 7.2% in Q4 from 7.1% in December 2015 quarter off a favourable base. On the BOP front, India is set to witness its first current account surplus ($1.9 billion) in a decade in Q4. For FY16, we expect GVA to rise by 7.2% as against the government estimate of 7.3%, while the current account deficit (CAD) to come in at an 11-year low of 1% of GDP led by savings in net oil trade."

 
As per Ministry of Agriculture’s third advanced estimates, Rabi foodgrain output rose 3.5% despite poor monsoons. This was off a low base as unseasonal rainfall had damaged crops in March 2015. "Given that crops account for around 60% of agri GVA, we expect agri GVA growth to have picked up to 2% in Q4 (Q4FY15/Q3FY16: -1.7%/-1%). Services sector growth is likely to have been resilient at 9.5%," the note added.
 
Religare pointed out that during the March quarter, India's industrial growth to have slowed down. Led by a double-digit drop in capital goods output, India's manufacturing Index of Industrial Production (IIP) declined by 1.1% in the last quarter of FY2016. Mining activity also inched down due to a sharper fall in natural gas (NG) output and a slower rise in coal production. The report says, "We expect construction to have picked up; cement output rose 11.4% in Q4 (Q3: 4.3%) while steel production was flat after declining in last two quarters. Overall industry growth is likely to have slowed to 6.1% in Q4 from 9% in Q3."
 
 
India is likely to see current account surplus in the March quarter. India’s merchandise trade deficit contracted 29.2% YoY ($7.7 billion) to a seven-year low of $18.4 billion in Q4, led by sharply lower gold imports in March due to jewellers’ strike and continued savings in net oil trade on lower crude prices (Q4: -40% YoY). "While we expect invisible earnings to decline on lower remittances and weak service exports, this will be comfortably offset by a drop in merchandise trade deficit. India should thus see a current account surplus of $1.9 billion (0.3% of GDP) in Q4, its first in a decade," Religare added.
 
During the March quarter, net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows remained healthy at $9 billion, while foreign institutional investment (FII) flows turned positive after three quarter, mainly due to large inflows in the last month of FY2016. Inflows into non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits surged to $4.3 billion – the highest in two years. Overall, a current account surplus and healthy capital flows would have added about $8.9 billion to reserves. Forex reserves also rose by $6.5 billion during the quarter.
 
According to Religare, India's CAD-GDP ratio for FY2016, is likely to touch 11-year low. India saved about $29 billion in FY2016 due to lower crude prices. "Due to this, CAD is set to drop to $20 billion, with the CAD/GDP ratio falling to an 11-year low of 1%. We expect capital flows to have halved year-on-year to $44.6 billion in FY2016 on net outflows of portfolio investments. But they would be more-than-sufficient to fund the CAD, leading to an accretion of $23.5 billion during the year," the report concluded.
 

 

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