Stocks
Nifty, Sensex may dip a little – Monday closing report
As long as Nifty remains above 8,425, bulls have hopes of more gains
 
A sharp fall in July trade data, the rupee value, and poor monsoon rainfall and diminishing hopes of a rate cut disappointed investors, leading to the barometer index of the Indian equity markets closing 189 points down on Monday. The wider 50-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) ended the day's trade 41.25 points or 0.48 percent down at 8,477.30 points.
 
 
The Sensex had rallied 518 points on August 14, on the back of expectations of further economic reforms and healthy macro-data.
 
Analysts cited the sharp fall in the exchanges as a reaction to July's trade data and profit-booking.
 
Exports during last month fell by 10.30 percent at $231.37 billion from $257.92 billion during July, last year. Exports during June stood at $222.89 billion.
 
Official data showed that the monsoon rainfall deficit widened from 6 to 10 percent for the August period.
 
Other worries such as a volatile rupee due to yuan devaluation and its impact on the RBI's rate decision further depressed sentiments.
 
The rupee ended Monday at Rs.65.33 to a US dollar touching a new two-year low. Rupee devalued around 5 percent as the People's Bank of China has let yuan fall by 4.6 percent since August 11. 
 
This has been the biggest devaluation in the Chinese currency since 1994. The devaluation of yuan, intended to boost Chinese exports, has made investment in China cheaper. 
 
The rupee had hit its lowest level in 24 months on August 13 at Rs.65.23 to a greenback. It had ended last week (August 14) at Rs.64.99 against a US dollar.
 
Sector-wise, healthy buying was observed in consumer durables, banks and metals stocks.
 
However, capital goods, automobile, oil and gas, healthcare and information technology (IT) sectors came under intense selling pressure.
 
The S&P BSE consumer durables rose by 122.24 points, bank index gained by 109.31 points and metal index rose by 101.82 points.
 
On the other hand, the S&P BSE capital goods index was down by 177.58 points, automobile index fell by 123.79 points, oil and gas index was down by 92.19 points, healthcare index declined by 58.24 points and IT index fell by 37.82 points.
 
Major Sensex gainers during Monday's trade were: Tata Steel, up 3.99 percent at Rs.246.55; State Bank of India (SBI), up 3.95 percent at Rs.279.05; GAIL, up 2.17 percent at Rs.345.50; Sun Pharma, up 0.83 percent at Rs.906.40; and Coal India, up 0.68 percent at Rs.380.
 
The major Sensex losers were: Cipla, down 4.95 percent at Rs.703.85; Hindalco Inds, down 2.63 percent at Rs.90.85; ONGC, down 2.37 percent at Rs.264.15; Hero MotoCorp, down 2.23 percent at Rs.2,653.50; and Dr.Reddy's Lab, down 1.99 percent at Rs.4,173.15.
 
Among the Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei was up 0.49 percent and China's Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.73 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng, however, fell by 0.74 percent. 
 
The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
 
The closing values of major Asian indices in the stock market are given below:
 
 
All European indices were sharply down. The US indices have opened 0.75-.05% lower.

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Consumer court allows Nestle to go for fresh Maggi tests
During the hearing, the bench expressed doubt over the government's cause of action, saying the Bombay High Court's judgment in the matter had dealt with the issue of lead content
 
The apex consumer court on Monday sought Nestle India's response on the government's Rs.640-crore unfair trade practice class action suit related to Maggi noodles, allowed fresh tests in approved labs and fixed Sep 30 as the next date of hearing.
 
A bench of the National Consumer Disputes Redressal Commission, comprising Justice V.K. Jain and Justice B.C. Gupta, directed Nestle to respond to the notice by Sep 30 and allowed the government to send samples of Maggi noodles to an accredited laboratory for tests on lead content and MSG.
 
"The court has accepted to hear the case for unfair trade practice and misleading consumers through advertisements and packaging," Additional Solicitor General Sanjay Jain said after the preliminary hearing.
 
During the hearing, the bench expressed doubt over the government's cause of action, saying the Bombay High Court's judgment in the matter had dealt with the issue of lead content.
 
It said since the high court had rejected the government's current reports on lead content -- for not being from an accredited laboratory -- there was no report to prove the government's contention that Nestle was selling hazardous products.
 
The government's counsel, Sanjay Jain, replied that the government had approached the consumer forum on a "broader issue". 
 
The central government was dealing with the question of whether Nestle had "all this while" sold a product which did not meet India's food safety standards, he said.
 
Jain said later: "The court has sought fresh, sealed samples to be tested by accredited labs. Further course of action will be decided by the ministry (of consumer affairs)."
 
After a 30-minute hearing, the forum agreed to the petitioner's request to have Maggi samples tested at an accredited lab, and issued the notice to Nestle to respond to the government's accusations.
 
No specific mention was made on which laboratories the samples would be sent.
 
The Department of Consumer Affairs had alleged that Nestle by its "unfair trade practices" vis a vis Maggi instant noodles, by selling "defective and hazardous products" has caused injury to millions of consumers, which called for this class action suit.
 
"It is now apparent that Maggi and its variants are neither healthy nor enjoyable. Quite the contrary, they are far from the quality and standard what even the opponent company had claimed them to be, while seeking approval," the government had said in its petition.
 
The petition said: "The department is keen to safeguard against companies selling defective foodstuff or other products in utter disregard of the existing laws."
 
Last week, Nestle India had got a significant respite with the Bombay High Court lifting the ban on the sale of nine instant noodle brands and ordering fresh tests in three separate labs to ascertain that the products complied with the country's food safety norms.
 
The conditional relief came following a petition filed by Nestle challenging the regulatory order of June 5 for the withdrawal and recall of nine variants of "Maggi Instant Noodles" and "Maggi Oats Masala Noodles with Tastemaker".
 
The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI), the industry watchdog, had said in its ban order of June 5 that tests conducted on a batch of Maggi were found to contain more-than-permissible levels of lead and high quantities of mono-sodium glutamate (MSG).

 

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COMMENTS

Veeresh Malik

2 years ago

The big question here is - how do these MNC processed food manufacturers maintain their supply chain for raw materials, especially liquids like edible oils and molasses? Do they use global standards of ISO tank containers insulated, pressurised and temperature controlled or just ordinary lorries with tanks built on them? Do they ensure that non-spec cargoes do not move on return empty legs, or are the transporters allowed to carry whatever they want? How often are the pipelines and valves dismantled for cleaning, how are the insides of the tanks cleaned?

All this and more, can be seen on the roads and in the parking lots outside their factories. And that is where the truth lies too.

Can Yellen still surprise with a September rate hike?
If China decides to devalue further in the coming weeks, then I will stand corrected and we will witness another round of very volatile choppy moves across the financial markets
 
After all the excitement and hyper-analysis of the yuan devaluation, global markets have read Beijing’s intervention in the currency market as China’s attempt for further financial liberalization rather than a stimulus package or an all out currency war.
 
This is evident as most of the moves in the global major currency crosses, rates and equities have been reversed (excluding the Asian FX space). If China decides to devalue further in the coming weeks, then I will stand corrected and we will witness another round of very volatile choppy moves across the financial markets.
 
The focus will now shift back to when the US Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy, for the first time in nine years. Due to the risk off nature of the China devaluation, markets have moved the implied probability of a September hike from roughly 60 percent to 50 percent since last Monday and 10-year US bond yields have fallen 13 basis points. Whether it was the Greek crisis or China now, the US Fed will need to understand that there will always be global factors which it can use as an excuse to delay monetary tightening. The next round of dreadful news flow can come out of Spain or Portugal, or an escalating of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, or maybe another phase of capitulation in the Chinese equity markets. However, the Fed will soon have to look beyond these potential external risks if domestic fundamentals are suitable for a interest rate hike.
 
If Fed chief Janet Yellen is to stick to her ‘data dependent’ approach towards monetary tightening, there is absolutely no chance of a September liftoff. While US job creation data remains robust, wage inflation remains extremely weak. The Fed’s favourite indicator to read wage pressures is the employment cost index (ECI). Data released two weeks ago showed that the ECI rose by 0.2 percent QoQ in 2Q15, down from 0.7 percent QoQ in 1Q15, with private industry ECI growth falling from 0.7 percent QoQ in 1Q15 to 0.0 percent in 2Q15. 
 
A CLSA research notes that “While on a year-on-year basis, the employment cost index growth slowed from 2.6 percent YoY in 1Q15 to 2.0 percent YoY in 2Q15, the slowest annualised growth rate since 2Q14. The private sector ECI growth also slowed from 2.8 percet YoY to 1.9 percent YoY with the growth in the wages and salaries component decelerating from 2.8 percent YoY to 2.2 percent YoY. Further dashing the hopes of cyclical bulls, this was the smallest quarter-on-quarter gain in the ECI since 1982.”
Capitulation in commodity prices, especially energy, will further add to global disinflationary pressures. Unless the Fed is looking at some other data which is signaling wage inflation, the possibility of a September rate hike looks remote.  

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