Nifty, Sensex likely to record more gains – Monday closing report

Nifty may suffer small dips but could rise over the next few days


In Friday’s closing report, we had mentioned that the Indian benchmarks may make a short bounce. Monday was the second consecutive day of gain on the bourses. The two days of gain on the S&P BSE Sensex wiped off the losses made on 14 October 2014 and 17 October 2014, while NSE’s CNX Nifty covered up almost most of the losses.

Sensex opened at 26,434 while Nifty opened at 7,897. After a huge gap up opening, the Sensex moved in the range of 26,369 and 26,518 while Nifty moved in a narrow range of 7,857 and 7,906. Sensex closed at 26,430 (up 321 points or 1.23%) while Nifty closed at 7,879 (up 100 points or 1.28%). NSE recorded a volume of 73.69 crore shares. India VIX fell 13.48% to close at 14.1900.

Except for flat IT (0.68%), all the other indices on the NSE closed in the green. The top five gainers were CPSE (3.51%), PSE (3.02%), Commodities (2.18%), Auto (2.07%) and Infra (2.04%).

Of the 50 stocks on the Nifty, 41 ended in the green. The top five gainers were Ultratech Cement (5.90%), ONGC (5.01%), Hindalco (4.70%), DLF (4.48%) and BPCL (4.10%). The top five losers were Jindal Steel (7.35%), Wipro (1.88%), Infosys (1.07%), TCS (0.64%), ITC (0.61%).

Of the 1,577 companies on the NSE, 934 companies closed in the green, 587 companies closed in the red while 56 companies closed flat.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a clear majority in Haryana and is set to form the government in state. BJP emerged with a clear mandate in Haryana, winning 47 seats in the 90-member assembly with a 33.2% vote share. The party emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra and is likely to form the government in state. In Maharashtra, the BJP won 122 seats in the 288-member assembly, falling 23 seats short of the 145 seats required for a simple majority. The NCP, which won 41 seats, said it will offer BJP "outside support" to form a stable government in the state.

The Cabinet Committee of Economic Affairs (CCEA) on Saturday approved the new domestic gas pricing policy. As per the formulation approved by the CCEA, upward revision in gas prices will be approximately 75% less as compared to the price arrived at using Rangarajan formula. About 80% of the additional revenues due to revision in gas price will go to the government companies. Government will get additional revenue of approximately Rs3,800 crore per annum on account of higher royalty, higher profit petroleum and higher taxes.

The government decided to make the price of diesel market-determined at both retail and refinery gate level for all consumers from midnight of 18/19th October 2014.


Henceforth, oil marketing companies (OMCs) are free to determine selling prices of the product in the domestic market, Indian Oil Corporation said in a statement. IOC rose 3.84%. HPCL (7.28%) was among the top three gainers in ‘A’ group on the BSE. HPCL hit its 52-week high today. ONGC (5.44%) was the top gainer in Sensex 30 pack.

Jindal Steel (8.58%) was the top loser in ‘A’ group on the BSE. The stock hit its 52-week low today. The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) on Sunday registered a fresh case against JSPL. It was alleged that ‘Gare Palma IV/1' coal block was allocated to JSPL for its sponge iron plant (SIP). It is alleged that the company proposed and entered into irregular mining lease covering area much beyond the coordinates stipulated by Ministry of Coal, resorted to excess coal mining, irregular regularisation of area beyond coordinates and excess coal mined, sale of raw coal, sale of coal fines and middling to other than specified end users, irregular permission for consumption of coal in expansion of kilns and other related allegations.

All the IT stocks in the Sensex 30 stock were among the losers. The top three losers were Wipro (1.67%), Infosys (1.09%) and TCS (0.88%).

US indices closed Friday in the green.

US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in October to the highest level in seven years, showing a brightening in Americans' moods as gas prices drop and the labour market gains traction. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for this month increased to 86.4, the strongest since July 2007.

All the Asian indices closed Monday in the green. Nikkei 225 (3.98%) was the top gainer.
Japan's $1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund, the world's largest public pension fund, is working out plans to increase its portfolio allocation devoted to domestic stocks to around 25%.

In China, the country's central bank -- the People's Bank of China -- is reportedly planning the injection of about 200 billion yuan ($32.7 billion) into some national and regional lenders.

European indices were trading in the red while US Futures too were trading lower.


3% swing in votes cost Congress 40 seats in Maharashtra

As against 21% in 2009, Congress got a vote share of 17.9% this time while its seat tally dropped hugely to 42 from 82 in Maharashtra assembly polls


The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may have fallen short of the majority mark in Maharashtra but its vote share nearly doubled in the just-held Assembly polls compared to that in 2009. At the same time, a 3% swing in votes cost Congress a whopping 40 seats placing it at number three position, after Shiv Sena.


BJP, which contested this election after parting ways with its 25-year-old ally Shiv Sena, recorded a huge jump in its tally of seats from 46 to 122 in a four-cornered contest. However, it stopped short of the majority figure of 145 by 23 seats.


According to data from the Election Commission, at the same time, BJP registered a vote share of 27.8% against 14.02% in 2009.


In the May Lok Sabha elections, when it was in alliance with Shiv Sena and fought against Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) combine, the BJP got 27.3% of the votes to bag 23 of the 48 seats at stake.


In the case of BJP’s erstwhile ally Shiv Sena, a 3% rise from 16.26% to 19.4% was enough to nearly double its seats to 63 this time from 33 in 2009. The Shiv Sena polled 20.6% to get 18 seats.


For Congress, a 3% swing in votes against it cost it 40 seats. As against 21.01% in 2009, Congress got a vote share of 17.9% this time while its seat tally dropped hugely from 82 to 42.


In the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress polled 18.1% votes but got only two seats.


The vote share of Congress’ erstwhile ally NCP rose marginally to 17.3% from 16.4% but that did not translate into more seats.


The Sharad Pawar-led NCP won 41 seats as against 62 in the previous elections. It had won four seats in Lok Sabha polls with a vote share of 16%.


The Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) secured 3.1% of the votes but could get only one seat.


In these assembly polls, 4,119 candidates were in the fray. BJP had fielded 280 candidates, Congress 287, NCP 282, Shiv Sena 282, BSP 260, MNS 219, CPI 34 and CPM 19.




2 years ago

Shiva Sena won 44 seats (with BJP) in last assembly and 63 now ( without BJP). The only plausible explanation was that the BJP and the Shiva Sena pretended a split to encourage the NCP and INC to split. But that is being sorely challenged by a BJP sense of triumphalism. If, indeed, the BJP cavorts with the Adarsh, Air India, etc. etc. NCP, the BJP wil sacrifice an enormous amount of good will, nation wide, from among its supporters.

After pausing for assembly elections, Modi govt announces tough economic reforms

Indian economy is headed in to a goldilocks period of higher growth and lower inflation in 2015, says Nomura in a research note


Fuel reforms are a very important signal of the Indian government's commitment to tough economic reforms. They will encourage more competition and investment in the oil & gas sector, which is a long-term positive. Diesel prices were deregulated effective midnight of 18 October 2014. Natural gas prices will be hiked to $5.61/mmBtu from $4.20/mmBtu, effective 1 November 2014, and will be revised every six months.

The key benefits will be as follows:

  1. With both diesel and petrol prices now market determined, the government will subsidise only LPG and kerosene henceforth

  2. Deregulation of diesel prices will shock-proof the government (and oil companies') balance sheet from future fluctuations in international oil prices

  3. The gas price hike is likely to increase the fertiliser subsidy burden, but this will be offset by higher revenues for the government due to increased royalty, profits and tax payments.

  4. However, higher natural gas prices will raise the cost of CNG, PNG and also the cost of gas-fired power and fertiliser plants.

The above analysis is from a research note from Nomura, which adds that government decision making has picked up. Last week, the government appointed Arvind Subramanian as the Chief Economic Adviser. Nomura’s comment is that the sudden resolution of a number of pending decisions suggests that the government was on a pause mode due to the impending state elections.


The Nomura research note concludes by saying, “We remain positive on India's economic outlook and believe that the economy is headed in to a goldilocks period of higher growth and lower inflation in 2015.”


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