Nifty will weaken on a close below 7,400
We had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex would be in rally mode and that Nifty would rise this week subject to dips. The major indices rallied to record gains for the week. The weekly trends of the major indices are given in the table below:
On Monday, positive global indices, coupled with firm crude oil prices and a stable rupee, supported the upward movement of the Indian equity markets. Initially, the bellwether indices opened on a positive note in sync with their Asian peers. Even the firm closing of the domestic and the US markets last week supported the upward trajectory. Moreover, the short-covering rally was supported by firm oil prices and a stable rupee which gained eight paise at the opening, starting the week at 67.55 to a US dollar from its previous close of 67.63. Further, expectations of an additional stimulus from the ECB (European Central Bank) by March this year boosted investors’ confidence. However, gains were capped by profit bookings and caution over the upcoming rate setting meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) scheduled for January 27-28. The FOMC assumes significance as higher interest rates in the US are expected to lead away FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) from emerging markets such as India. In addition, selling pressure was witnessed on account of the F&O (Futures and Options) expiry slated for Thursday. The S&P BSE market breadth favoured the bulls with an advance decline ratio of nearly 2:1. There were 1,673 advances and 900 declines.
On Wednesday, caution over the upcoming rate-setting meeting of the US Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) scheduled for January 27-28, coupled with a weak rupee dented investors' sentiments leading to major indices in the Indian equity markets closing the day's trade flat. Initially, the bellwether indices opened on a flat-to-positive note in sync with their Asian peers and firm closing of the domestic markets on Monday. Moreover, short-coverings were supported by firm oil prices and expectations of healthy roll-over figures from the F&O (Futures and Options) expiry slated for Thursday. The weakness in rupee subdued sentiments too. The rupee value weakened to 68-level against a US dollar during intra-day trade. The weakness in the rupee value indicates the massive outflow of foreign funds from the Indian equity and debt markets. On Monday, the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers. According to data with stock exchanges, FIIs divested Rs91.15 crore.
Hopes of a monetary policy easing, coupled with healthy roll-over from derivatives expiry and status quo in US interest rates, slightly buoyed the Indian equity markets on Thursday. The headline indices were trading in a very narrow range, as gains made on the account of positive international sentiments were erased by caution over the sliding value of rupee and the upcoming Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy review. Initially, the bellwether indices opened on a flat note, ignoring positive cues from their Asian peers, firm crude oil prices and the US Fed's decision to maintain status quo in interest rates. However, the major indices closed with marginal losses.
On Friday, hopes of an interest rate cut, coupled with a strengthening rupee and positive global cues, buoyed the Indian equity markets. Initially, the Indian bellwether indices opened on a positive note, in sync with their Asian peers, firm crude oil prices and Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to maintain its stimulus program. Markets started their upward climb after initial consolidation from Thursday's close, when both bellwether had indices closed flat. In addition, short-covering and value buying at lower levels pushed up prices. Investors were seen hopeful of an interest rate cut during the upcoming monetary policy review by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) which is slated for February 2. Expectations were backed up by Bank of Japan's decision to go in for a negative interest rate to support the Japanese economy. BoJ's decision came a day after the US Fed maintained its status quo on key lending rates. Recently, the European Central Bank (ECB) indicated more stimulus measures which will be announced in March. Besides, strengthening of rupee's value soothed investors' nerves. The rupee opened at 68.12 against a US dollar from Thursday's close at 68.23 to a greenback.
With favourable macroeconomic cues, the major indices of the Indian equity markets are likely to be on an upward trajectory for a while. Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were: