Stocks
Nifty, Sensex in a downtrend: Weekly Market Report

Reversal would be seen only if the Nifty closes above any previous day’s high

 
The Indian market closed the holiday-shortened week with a loss of 2%, mainly on global growth concerns, and the absence of positive triggers from the domestic arena. A decline in industrial output for September and lower exports in October also weighed on the market. The focus now shifts to the Winter Session of Parliament, beginning on 21st November, which will see another stormy session with opposition to the key reforms that were initiated by the UPA government recently.
 
The BSE Sensex tumbled 374 points (2%) to settle at 18,309 and the Nifty closed the week at 5,574, down 112 points (1.97%). The decline indicates that the downtrend is continuing. However, a reversal would be seen only if the Nifty closes above any previous day’s high.
 
The market ended on a flat note on Monday on the decline in industrial production numbers for September and weak global cues. The short trading session on Tuesday to herald the Samvat Year 2069 saw the benchmarks remaining subdued on global concerns. Selling pressure in IT, metal, fast moving consumer goods and auto stocks pushed the indices lower on Thursday. On Friday, the market erased all its gains in late trade and settled around 1% down.
 
In the sectoral space, BSE Consumer Durables (up 1%) was the lone gainer. The top losers were BSE Auto and BSE Metal (down 3% each).
 
The Sensex gainers in the week were Bharti Airtel (up 9%) and Coal India (up 1%). The main losers on the index were Tata Motors (down 6%); Tata Steel, ITC, Hero MotoCorp (down 5% each) and Hindalco Industries (down 4%).
 
The top Nifty performers were Bharti Airtel (up 9%), Coal India and Axis Bank (up 1% each). Tata Motors (down 6%), Grasim Industries, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel and Ambuja Cements (down 5% each) were the key losers.
 
India’s industrial production, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP),  contracted by 0.4% in September due dismal show by the manufacturing sector and a decline in consumer as well as capital goods output. Meanwhile, the IIP for August this year was revised downward to 2.3% from earlier provisional estimates of 2.7% released last month.
 
Headline inflation declined marginally to 7.45% in October from 7.81% in the previous month, even though prices of food items like rice, wheat pulses and potato showed a rise giving virtually no respite to the common man battling price rise. India Inc is of the view that the decline in the rate of price rise should encourage the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rate that will lead to uptick in industrial activity.
 
On the international front, initial jobless claims in the US rose to their highest in more than a year, as a handful of companies announced mass layoffs—a sign of tardy economic growth. Meanwhile, anti-austerity protests and a deepening recession continue to impact the 17-nation Eurozone.
 

User

Weekly Nifty View: Channel broken, but is this a correction or bears in action?

A close above 5,685 on the Nifty may bring some reversal

S&P Nifty close: 5,574.05


Market Trend
 

Short Term: Down                             Medium Term: Down                        Long Term: Down

 

After a flat opening, the Nifty made a feeble attempt to take out and close above the weekly pivot of 5,714 points, which failed miserably. After a couple of days of narrow-range movement the market declined with gusto in the last couple of days of the week. The breaking of the support of the weekly channel saw the bulls surrender meekly resulting in the Nifty just collapsing in the last 45 minutes of trade on Friday. The volumes on these days was significantly higher but the week-on-week volumes were significantly lower as the Nifty closed 112 points (-1.97%) in the red. The histogram MACD also fell below the median level indicating that the honeymoon for the bulls is over and desperate measures are required on their part to salvage the situation.
 

The sectoral Indices which outperformed were CNX Media (+3.56%), CNX Consumption (+0.55%), CNX Infra (-0.13%) and CNX PSE (-0.56%) while the underperformers were CNX Auto (-2.70%), CNX Metal (-2.45%), CNX Commodities (-2.37%) and CNX PSU Bank (-2.35%).

 

Some key levels to watch out for this week

  As long as the S&P Nifty stays below 5,617 points (pivot) the bulls will be under pressure.

  Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,516 and 5,458 points.

•  Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,675 and 5,776 points.

 

Some Observations

  1. The Nifty has completed the 61.8% retracement level of the decline from 6,338-4,770 points pegged at 5,740.
  2. The 78.6% retracement level of the fall from 6,338-4,770 points is pegged at 5,951 points, which also coincides with the top of the channel (in brown).
  3. We have fallen below the previous weekly top of 5,629 points (24 February 2012) which indicates that any rally from here on will lack impulsive qualities.
  4. The “gap area” between 5,649-5,682 points has been closed hence the trouble for the bulls will increase.
  5. The weekly channel support (in blue) has been broken. The immediate priority for the bulls is to regain it (has to close above 5,685 this week for it) otherwise the going will get tougher.
  6. Immediate support to watch out for is 5,516 which is the 38.2% retracement level of the rise from 5,032-5,815 points. This level is close to the support calculated by another method i.e. correction from 5,348-5,032 points is 316 points. Therefore 5,815 – 316 points gives 5,499 points.
  7. Another important level to watch out for is the recent top of 5,448 points (24 August 2012) which should not be overlapped at any cost as this would confirm that all bullish hopes are dashed and that any subsequent rise would only be a selling opportunity.

Strategy
 

The bulls came a cropper as the Nifty broke through and closed below the weekly channel support. This raises the question whether we have already topped out and an intermediate term decline has begun. To ward off such conclusions the bulls have to ensure that this correction does not drop below 5,448 points and more preferably try to regain the channel at the earliest. From this perspective the coming two to three weeks are important for getting a confirmation whether the bulls are down and out or they make one more last attempt to drive prices higher into the year end. However, from a practical short-term trading perspective one should keep selling into rallies near the 5,675-5,700 point’s area as the daily and weekly uptrend has become weak. From the above one can safely conclude that the bulls are down but not completely out as yet and one has to see what they can do to salvage the situation which would become precarious as the weeks go by.
 

(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst and chief strategist at www.trend4casting.com.)

 

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