Nifty will continue to rally as long as it stays above 7,650
We had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were on a strong uptrend and that Nifty has to stay above 7,600 for the rally to continue. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were range bound in Tuesday’s trading and closed marginally higher than Monday’s close. The trends of the major indices are given in the table below:
Caution over a potential US rate hike, coupled with negative Chinese indices and profit booking, dragged the Indian equity markets lower on Tuesday’s trading till afternoon. However, the major indices closed in the green on strong buying by institutions towards the close.
In corporate news, Coal India's employee unions have deferred the proposed strike on March 29 after a meeting with the company management, a union leader said on Monday. "We had a fruitful discussion with minister Piyush Goyal on March 14. Today, we have met chairman and management of the company. We have raised several issues including payment of contractor workers and secured signed minutes. In view of the positive approach, we deferred the proposed one day strike on March 29," said Indian National Mine Workers' Federation secretary general S.Q. Zama. "We are more worried about the payment of contractors' workers. The management has assured that action would be taken against the contractors for not making payments," he said. Coal India shares closed at Rs294.50, down 0.77% on the BSE.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Monday that the world needs a new international agreement on the lines of Bretton Woods that created the current multilateral financial system, to prevent central banks from adopting policies that could hurt other economies. "What I have in mind will eventually require a new international agreement along the lines of Bretton Woods, and some reinterpretation of the mandates of internationally influential central banks," Rajan said in a commentary posted on the website of Project Syndicate. "If so, what we need are monetary rules that prevent a central bank's domestic mandate from trumping a country's international responsibility," he said. He said that central banks in developed countries find various ways to justify their policies, without acknowledging that the exchange rate may be the primary channel of transmission. "We can pretend all is well with the global monetary non-system and hope that nothing goes spectacularly wrong. Or we can start building a system fit for the integrated world of the twenty-first century," Rajan said. He said the world is facing an increasingly dangerous situation and both advanced and emerging economies need to grow in order to manage domestic political tensions. "If governments respond by enacting policies that divert growth from other countries, this 'beggar my neighbour' tactic will simply foster instability elsewhere. What we need, therefore, are new rules of the game," he said. Pointing to the very low interest rate policies of the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England in a bid to stimulate their economies, Rajan has been warning that emerging markets are especially vulnerable to big shifts in capital flows triggered by the unprecedented monetary accommodation in rich countries. This is a warning to investors in India from the RBI Governor that good times are unlikely to last, if there are negative global cues or if there is a continued wave of protectionist policy from central banks abroad. This is a problem that is likely to adversely affect the major indices itself and not just the sectoral indices one at a time.
India's current account deficit (CAD) dropped to $7.1 billion or 1.3% of GDP in the third quarter of 2015-16 on account of narrowing trade deficit, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. "India's current account deficit (CAD) at $7.1 billion or, 1.3% of GDP in Q3 (October-December) of 2015-16 was lower than $7.7 billion or, 1.5% of GDP in Q3 of 2014-15," an RBI release said. "The contraction in CAD was primarily on account of a lower trade deficit ($34 billion) than in Q3 of last year ($38.6 billion)." The RBI also said foreign exchange reserves (on a balance of payment basis) increased by $4.1 billion in the October-December quarter of the current fiscal. On a cumulative basis, the CAD contracted to 1.4% of GDP in the first nine months of the fiscal from 1.7% in the April-December period of 2014-15, on the back of a fall in the trade deficit. During April-December, there was an accretion of $14.6 billion to foreign exchange reserves (on a balance of payment basis), as compared to $31.3 billion in the corresponding period of 2014-15. Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians abroad, amounted to $15.8 billion, a decline from their level in the preceding quarter as well as from a year ago. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) picked up in third quarter and stood at $10.8 billion, after earlier moderating in the second quarter. "Non-resident Indian deposits moderated significantly in Q3 of 2015-16 over their level in Q3 last year as well as the preceding quarter," RBI said. This is good news for those who watch inflation and aggregate demand in the economy and the share market is likely to respond favourably.
The top gainers and top losers of the major indices in the Indian stock markets are given in the table below:
The closing values of the major Asian indices are given below: