Stocks
Nifty, Sensex gains may continue– Tuesday closing report

Nifty is trying to establish a short term bottom

 

We had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that NSE’s CNX Nifty may try to bounce back. Also mentioned was that it may find support around 8,490 and put in a short bounce. The 50-share index opened Tuesday lower, however, it immediately moved into the green. The benchmark managed crossing yesterday’s high but then started moving to lower levels. As mentioned, Nifty reached 20 points below the support and tried reviving. Finally, it managed to enter into green zone again and closed higher breaking the seven days of consecutive losses.
 
S&P BSE Sensex opened at 28,122 while Nifty opened at 8,478. Sensex hit a high of 28,634 and moved to the low of 28,045 before closing at 28,356 (up 128 points or 0.45%). Nifty moved from the high of 8,646 to the low of 8,471 and closed at 8,566 (up 39 points or 0.46%). NSE recorded a volume of 95.03 crore shares. India VIX fell 3.74% to close at 21.1925.
 
Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) got a clear majority at the Delhi Assembly elections. According to the election manifesto unveiled by AAP, late last month, among other promises, AAP government will keep its promise of reducing electricity bills by half. Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Kejriwal on the win and assured central government's complete support in the development of Delhi.
 
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, at the First Meeting of the Parliamentary Consultative Committee attached to his Ministry to discuss ‘Suggestions for the Budget', said that the overall economic situation in the country is looking better and basic parameters of Indian economy are moving in the right direction.
 
Economy is likely to grow at a faster pace of 7.4% in the current fiscal as against 6.9% in 2013-14, according to government’s advance estimates for GDP based on the new calculation methodology. The data further said that the economy grew by 7.5% in the September-December quarter of the current fiscal after a growth rate of 8.2% in the preceding quarter.
 
The Indian IT outsourcing sector is reportedly expected to see export revenue growing 12-14% to $112 billion in the financial year ending 31 March 2016 (FY 2016), according Nasscom.
 
Coming back to Indian stock markets, ABB (7.39%) was the top gainer in ‘A’ group on the BSE. Improved result of December 2014 quarter pulled the stock higher.
 
Future Retail (15.91%) was the top loser in ‘A’ group on the BSE.
 
Tata Motors (4.01%) was the top gainer in the Sensex 30 pack, while TCS (2.87%) was the top loser in the pack.
 
On Monday, US indices closed in the red.
 
Asian indices showed mixed performance. Shanghai Composite (1.50%) was the top gainer, while Seoul Composite (0.57%) was the top loser.
 
China's consumer inflation slipped to a five-year low in January. China's consumer-price index rose 0.8% in January from a year earlier, slower than a 1.5% year-over-year rise in December, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed today, 10 February 2015.
 
European indices were showing mixed trading, while US Futures were trading in the green.
 
French Industrial output rebounded in December as production rose across the Eurozone's second largest economy, the national statistics agency Insee said. Industrial production in France rose 1.5% in December from November.
 

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India’s growth data continues to confuse, says Nomura

According to Nomura, the sharp upward revision in India’s growth rate is due to a change in the estimation methodology. If the data is correct, then this suggests robust consumption and no need for any policy accommodation

 

Indian growth data continue to confound. Following the revision in annual real GDP growth in FY13 and FY14, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has estimated that real GDP growth is expected to rise an even more robust 7.4% y-o-y (year-on-year) in FY15, from 6.9% y-o-y in FY14. The quarterly data for FY15 were accordingly revised higher by around 1.6% as compared with the old series.  These observations are made in a research note from Nomura.
 
In Q4 2014, real growth rose 7.5% y-o-y, slightly lower than the 8.2% y-o-y in Q3 (Figures 1 and 2), owing to lower agricultural sector growth, which offsets the strong pickup in non-agricultural growth (mainly services).
 
Nomura said, “The sudden jump in growth rates is due to a change in the real GDP growth estimation methodology. Earlier, real GDP growth was estimated as a change in volume, while the new series estimates value added at each stage. Also, the government now uses sales tax, service tax and corporate performance data to estimate quarterly GDP. As a result of these changes, growth in industry (especially manufacturing) and the services sector (financial and real estate and government services) is much stronger in the new series.”
 
“If the numbers are correct, then the GDP data suggest that the economy has been rising at a much faster pace than estimated earlier and that potential growth in the Indian economy is still above 7%. However, the composition of growth is still biased towards consumption, while investment demand remains relatively sluggish, reducing the need for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ease monetary policy,” Nomura argues in the research note.
 
“However,” Nomura said, “high growth does not square with other real activity indicators and the sharp moderation in inflation.” 
 
Nomura’s assessment is that growth bottomed out in 2013-14 and is currently in the initial stages of a business cycle recovery. Based on the new series and the growth uptick indicated by forward-looking indicators, Nomura expects real GDP growth to rise to around 7.5-8.0% y-o-y in FY16.
 

 

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Mayawati's BSP may lose its national party status due to poor show in Delhi

The BSP had urged the EC to postpone a decision on its national party status till the outcome of the Delhi Assembly elections, which turned out to be poor for the Mayawati-led party

 

Barring a few seats, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which fielded candidates in all the 70 constituencies in Delhi, registered a poor show in the Assembly elections.
 
The party, which has been trying hard to maintain its national party status, managed to win below 1,000 votes in most of the constituencies while some of its candidates polled substantial votes.
 
The development may not come as good news to party supremo Mayawati as the Election Commission is set to take a call on its show-cause notice to BSP as to why its national party status should not be withdrawn.
 
In Adarsh Nagar, Ramniwas of BSP managed to get 681 votes while Rajbir secured 815 votes in Ambedkar Nagar. Similarly Mohammad Abdul Haq could muster 754 votes from Babarpur.
 
But the party registered respectable performance in some Delhi seats. In Gokalpur, its candidate Surendra Kumar secured 30,080 votes. In Seema Puri, party candidate Jai Shree secured 3,548 seats.
 
The BSP had urged the EC to postpone a decision on its national party status till the outcome of the Delhi Assembly elections.
 
Following their poor performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, EC had issued show—cause notices to BSP, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Communist Party of India (CPI), asking them why their national party status should not be withdrawn.
 
A political party becomes eligible to be recognised as a national party if it has won 2% of seats in the Lok Sabha (11 seats) from at least three different states in the latest general election.
 
Also, if the party has polled 6% of the total valid votes in Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in at least four states, in addition to winning four Lok Sabha seats.
 

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COMMENTS

Jagatheesan Chandrasekharan

2 years ago

It is a known fact that all the elections are conducted through fraud EVMs which are tamperable.Supreme Court had ordered to replace all the EVMs. But as on now fool proof voting system is not there. last Lok Sabha elections were conducted through fraud EVMs in 543 -8 constituencies. As a result RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapis (BJP) snatched the MASTER KEY by Murderers of democratic institutions (Modi). Until all the fraud EVMs are replaced, all the elections conducted without such replacement must be scraped and fresh elections conducted. Kejrival also told that EVMs could be tampered. May be to avoid embarassement now for a change AAP has won to keep them shut.Therefore non of the political party should lose their status till all the fraud EVMs are replaced and till such time all the elections must be scraped to save democracy, equality, fraternity, and liberty as enshrined in the constitution for peace, welfare and happiness i.e., Sarvajan Hitaye Sarvajan Sukhaye including 99% SC/STs/OBCs/Minorities/poor brahmins, baniyas.

Jagatheesan Chandrasekharan

2 years ago

It is a known fact that all the elections are conducted through fraud EVMs which are tamperable.Supreme Court had ordered to replace all the EVMs. But as on now fool proof voting system is not there. last Lok Sabha elections were conducted through fraud EVMs in 543 -8 constituencies. As a result RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapis (BJP) snatched the MASTER KEY by Murderers of democratic institutions (Modi). Until all the fraud EVMs are replaced, all the elections conducted without such replacement must be scraped and fresh elections conducted. Kejrival also told that EVMs could be tampered. May be to avoid embarassement now for a change AAP has won to keep them shut.Therefore non of the political party should lose their status till all the fraud EVMs are replaced and till such time all the elections must be scraped to save democracy, equality, fraternity, and liberty as enshrined in the constitution for peace, welfare and happiness i.e., Sarvajan Hitaye Sarvajan Sukhaye including 99% SC/STs/OBCs/Minorities/poor brahmins, baniyas.

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