If Nifty remains weak, the decline may halt at around 8,300
The S&P BSE Sensex closed the week that ended on 20th March at 28,261 (down 242 points or 0.85%), while the NSE’s CNX Nifty closed at 8,571 (down 77 points or 0.89%). In the week before that we had mentioned that NSE’s CNX Nifty may remain weak and the short-term support for the index maybe around 8,550.
Monday turned out to be a volatile session on the Nifty, with the index trading mostly in the red, and it finally ended closing lower. Nifty closed at 8,633 (down 15 points or 0.17%). While the wholesale price index (WPI) remained in negative zone in February 2015, Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) reportedly said that India's economy is a bright spot in a cloudy global economy and that recent policy reforms and improved business confidence are set to boost the country's growth.
Data released by the Indian government previous week showed the trade deficit narrowing to the 17-month low of $6.85 billion in February 2015. As we anticipated on Monday, Nifty managed to close in the green on Tuesday, in spite of giving up all the intra-day gains mid-way. Nifty closed near the day’s high at 8,723 (up 90 points or 1.04%).
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India more than doubled to $4.48 billion in January, the highest inflow in last 29 months. The head of the IMF said that emerging markets must prepare for the impact of a rise in US interest rates, which could surprise in both its timing and pace.
On Wednesday, although Nifty managed staying above Tuesday’s low, it closed lower 8,686 (down 37 points or 0.43%). Among the various happenings back home, Minister of State for Civil Aviation Dr Mahesh Sharma in a written reply in Rajya Sabha stated said that the Ministry of Finance was requested to include aviation turbine fuel (ATF) under declared goods. India's exports grew marginally by 0.88% to $286.58 billion during the April- February period of the current fiscal. There was also the news of SEBI planning to change the rule that will make it easier for home-grown start-ups to list their shares. The government has decided to divest its stake in BHEL next fiscal.
US housing finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could require more bailouts from US taxpayers as risks are rising due to shrinking reserves, an internal watchdog for the firms' regulator said on Wednesday. These two firms had been bailed out in 2008 financial crisis.
On Thursday, Nifty closed at 8,635 (down 51 points or 0.59%), despite a sharp rally on Wednesday in the US. We had anticipated that Nifty would move sideways. After a gap up opening, the benchmark hit a higher high. However, it then started moving lower. The OECD, in its latest Interim Economic Assessment of the world economy, said that India is expected to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world over the next two years.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) said that according to PwC's 18th Annual Global CEO Survey (India report), CEOs in India continue to be more confident about the growth prospects of their business than their global peers. On Friday Nifty continued to head lower. Nifty closed at 8,571 (down 64 points or 0.74%).
Rajya Sabha passed the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2015. Fitch India has forecast gross domestic product to grow at 8.0% in 2015-16 and 8.3% in the next fiscal, based on the new data series. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has approved the sale of equity in four state-owned companies including ONGC and NMDC, which may fetch the exchequer Rs22,574 crore.
Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were: