Stocks
Nifty, Sensex, Bank Nifty continue to remain weak– Tuesday closing report

Chances of a further fall will reduce, if Nifty closes above 8,800 and Bank Nifty above 19,200

 

We had mentioned in Monday’s closing report that NSE’s CNX Nifty may go down a bit, while Bank Nifty may weaken further. Ahead of the February futures and options expiry on Thursday and the rail budget that will be placed on the same day, the 50-share benchmark witnessed a highly volatile session on Tuesday with the index making occasional plunges in the negative. However, it finally managed to close marginally higher.
 
S&P BSE Sensex opened at 29,017 while Nifty opened at 8,773. Sensex moved in the range of 28,876 and 29,131 and closed at 29,005 (up 30 points or 0.10%). Nifty moved between 8,727 and 8,801 and closed at 8,762 (up 7 points or 0.08%). NSE recorded a volume of 89.60 crore shares. India VIX fell 0.38% to close at 21.5500. Bank Nifty fell 0.16% to close at 18,884.
 
The Economic Survey will be tabled in the Parliament on Friday. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) in a notification, on Monday, slashed domestic and international termination call charges.
 
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reportedly formed a committee to seek farmers' suggestion on land acquisition bill after the Narendra Modi-led government introduced the Land Acquisition (Amendment) Bill in the Lok Sabha Tuesday amid uproar by the Opposition.
 
The Finance Commission has suggested raising share of states in central taxes to 42% from current 32%. As per the increased devolution suggested in the report of the 14th Finance Commission, the states will get Rs3.48 lakh crore in 2014-15 and Rs5.26 lakh crore in 2015-16.
 
The proceedings for the second phase of the auction of Schedule III coal blocks have been postponed till 2nd March. The auction proceedings were supposed to begin on 25th February.
 
Gold prices dipped below the Rs27,000-mark by losing another Rs100 to trade at a 10-week low of Rs26,970 per 10 gram.
 
The government is considering direct transfer of fertiliser subsidy to farmers on the lines of LPG, Chemicals and Fertilisers Minister Ananth Kumar told Parliament. He said that any issues related to distribution of fertilisers will be the responsibility of respective states.
 
The union government said that it was hopeful that the much-delayed Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill will be passed during the ongoing budget session.
 
Coming back to stock markets, Central Bank of India (8.11%) was the top gainer in ‘A’ group on the BSE.  The stock hit its 52-week high today.
 
TVS Motor (6.77%) was the top loser in ‘A’ group on the BSE. Venu Srinivasan, chairman and managing director recently sold 1.5 million shares for about Rs45 crore.
 
Hindustan Unilever (3.15%) was the top gainer in the Sensex 30 pack while Sesa Sterlite (3.49%) was the top loser in the pack.
 
US indices had a mixed closing on Monday. The market awaits US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Congress.
 
Sales of previously owned US homes fell in January as a tight supply forced up prices, showing the residential real-estate market faces an uneven recovery. Purchases slowed 4.9% to a 4.82 million annualised rate, the least since April, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors yesterday, 23 February 2015.
Except for Hang Seng (0.35%) and NZSE 50 (0.55%), all the Asian indices which were trading today closed in the green. Taiwan Weighted (1.05%) was the top gainer.
 
Markit Economics will announce Wednesday preliminary reading of China's HSBC PMI index for February 2015, indicating the health of China's manufacturing activity for that month.
 
European indices were trading in the green. US Futures too were trading marginally in the positive.
 
Greece has unveiled an outline summary of reforms demanded by eurozone leaders in order to secure a bailout extension. The list must be approved by international creditors today to secure a four-month loan extension.
 

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Nifty, Sensex may go down a bit; Bank Nifty weaker – Monday closing report

Nifty and Bank Nifty in a downtrend

 

We had mentioned in last week’s closing report that NSE’s CNX Nifty may be headed lower, if its closes below 8,750, while Bank Nifty was already in a downtrend. The 50-share benchmark on Monday moved in a range up to 1.35pm, after which it slipped lower and hit a five-day low, including today, and closed near to it.
 
S&P BSE Sensex opened at 29,317 while Nifty opened at 8,857. After hitting a high at 29,363 and 8,869, respectively, both Sensex and Nifty moved lower to hit a low at 28,913 and 8,736. Sensex closed at 28,975 (down 256 points or 0.88%) while Nifty closed at 8,755 (down 79 points or 0.89%). NSE recorded a volume of 88.21 crore shares. India VIX rose 1.72% to close at 21.6325.
 
Public Sector Banks (PSB) employee unions had deferred their four-day nation-wide strike beginning 25 February 2015, following wage settlement with the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA). As per the settlement, bank employees would get a 15% wage hike from 1 November 2012. They would also have second and fourth Saturday of every month as weekly off. However, other Saturdays would be a full working day for banks. 
 
Indian stock exchanges have decided to keep the markets open on Saturday, 28 February 2015, when Finance Minister Arun Jaitley would present the second Budget of the Narendra Modi government. The Budget session of Parliament will be held in two phases.
 
The first phase will be from 23rd February till 20th March and the second phase from 20th April till 8th May. There will be 20 working days during the first phase and 13 in the second phase.
 
In view of the upcoming budget, there is anticipation that finance minister may present a common man friendly budget by either raising tax slabs or hiking investment limit in savings instruments.
 
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday reached out to the opposition, saying the Government will listen to their views, and efforts will be made to discuss all issues of national importance.
 
Anil Ambani-led Reliance group has clarified that no search or raid has been conducted by police authorities at any office of the Group anywhere in India. The work station of only one specific Reliance Power employee was searched, and no incriminating material of any kind was found, Reliance Group said in a press release. The company is not aware of the circumstances leading to the arrest of that employee, and Reliance Power is fully cooperating with the authorities, it said. The group is committed to propriety in all business dealings, and do not support unlawful activities of any nature, the press release said.
 
Rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) on Monday warned that India's weak fiscal and debt indicators, coupled with the low-income levels, "constrain" the sovereign rating.
 
A fall in global oil prices provides India with the opportunity to strengthen its balance sheet, a deputy governor of the central bank said on Monday. Emphasising the need to use the savings to invest, build reserves and cut subsidies. 
 
Coming back to Indian stock markets, Oberoi Realty (8.63%) was the top gainer in ‘A’ group on the BSE. The stock hit its 52-week high today. It posted an improved result for December 2014 quarter last week.
 
HDIL (6.98%) was the top loser in ‘A’ group on the BSE. The stock hit its 52-week high on Friday. M&M (0.99%) was the top gainer in the Sensex 30 pack. Reliance Industries (2.53%) was the top loser in the pack.
 
On Friday, US indices closed in the green. Among those Asian indices, which were trading Monday, Nikkei 225 (0.73%) was the top gainer while SET Composite index of Thailand (0.60%) was the top loser.
 
European indices were showing mixed trading while US Futures were trading lower. Euro-area finance ministers on Friday reached an agreement intended to keep aid flowing to Greece for four months in return for a commitment to budget targets, buying time to work out the details of longer-term financing. Greece now has to provide a list of reform measures to euro zone today to secure financing. European finance chiefs will then decide whether the proposals go far enough or trigger another round of emergency negotiations this week.
 

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Nifty, Sensex may be headed down – Weekly closing report
Bank Nifty has already turned downwards and Nifty will be headed lower if its closes below 8,750
 
The S&P BSE Sensex closed the week that ended on 20th February at 29,231 (up 136 points or 0.47%), while the NSE’s CNX Nifty closed at 8,834 (up 28 points or 0.32%). In the previous week, we had mentioned that Nifty and Sensex may continue to head higher.
 
On Monday, after a gap up opening, Nifty moved higher to hit the intra-day high. However, by the end of the session, all of the intra-day gains were given up and it closed marginally higher. Nifty closed at 8,809 (up 4 points or 0.04%). The annual rate of inflation based on monthly wholesale price index stood at negative 0.39% in January 2015, compared with a reading of 0.11% for December 2014.
 
The stock market was closed on Tuesday for Mahashivratri. 
 
On Wednesday, the Nifty closed higher for the sixth consecutive session as the benchmark gained sudden upward momentum in the noon session. Nifty closed at 8,869 (up 60 points or 0.68%). Prime Minister Modi said his government did not want India to be the biggest importer of defence equipment in the world and vowed to double output of defence manufacturing in the country.
 
On Thursday, Nifty closed marginally higher at 8,895 (up 26 points or 0.30%). In a notification issued on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said, "Nominated banks are now permitted to import gold on consignment basis. All sale of gold domestically will, however, be against upfront payments. Banks are free to grant gold metal loans".
 
On Friday, Nifty broke seven days of consecutive upmove, closing at 8,834 (down 62 points or 0.69%). In the first round of coal auction the government has raised nearly Rs84,000 crore. The government said it will start the second tranche of auctions by 25th February.
 
Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were:
 
 

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