Volatility is likely to remain high as a move on either side is likely
S&P Nifty close: 5,746.95
Short Term: Up Medium Term: Up Long Term: Down
After a flat opening the Nifty rose for four consecutive trading sessions during which it briefly crossed the R2 level of the week before a weird sell-off (worth Rs6.5 billion or $125.3 million and 59 erroneous orders) saw the Nifty hit a low of 4,880 points. If the 2G and Colgate were not enough, Friday’s NSE fiasco has added another blot on this government’s functioning as the National Stock Exchange (NSE) is its brainchild. The much-touted systems of the NSE were floored in no time and one hopes that stringent action will be taken against the exchanges too as they flouted the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) norms laid down after circuit filters are hit. Anyway, there have been these stray incidences of prices hitting vague levels in individual stocks for the past few years but this time it was blown up because most of the heavyweights were hit at the same time. How can 59 erroneous orders be placed? It’s high time the exchanges look at solving this problem seriously and mischievous elements are kept at bay. Despite this ridiculous event the Nifty closed 43 points (+0.77%) in the green this week. Volumes were significantly lower as compared to the previous week. The histogram MACD, which is above the median level, moved higher indicating that the bulls remain in control even though the short-term oscillators have ventured into overbought territory.
The sectoral indices which outperformed were CNX Realty (+6.21%), CNX FMCG (+4.13%), CNX MNC (+2.34%), CNX Media (+2.24%), CNX PSE (+2.14%) and CNX Infra (+2.05%) and while the underperformers were CNX Pharma (-1.62%), CNX IT (-0.34%), CNX Service (-0.08%) and CNX Finance (-0.07%).
Here are some key levels to watch out for this week
• As long as the S&P Nifty stays above 5,752 points (pivot) the bulls will be in control.
• Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,810 and 5,873 points.
• Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,688 and 5,630 points.
1. The Nifty has completed the 61.8% retracement level of the decline from 6,338-4,770 points pegged at 5,740.
2. The 78.6% retracement level of the fall from 6,338-4,770 points is pegged at 5,951 points, which also coincides with the top of the channel (in brown).
3. The Nifty is now moving within a sharp up sloping channel (in blue), support from which is pegged around 5,453 points and resistance is pegged around 5,860 points, this week.
4. We have closed above the previous weekly top of 5,629 points (24 February 2012) which is a sign of strength as long as it stays above it.
5. The weekly chart above also shows a channel (in brown) the resistance line of which is pegged around 5,965 points. This should be closely watched in the week ahead.
6. We have completed 89 weeks (Fibonacci number) from the top of 6,338 points (05 November 2010) hence one has to keep a close watch whether the market starts correcting from around current or slightly higher levels.
7. The volumes were significantly higher as compared to the previous week which was also the case a week prior to the previous significant top of 5,629 points (24 February 2012). Hence one needs to be alert for the slightest sign of a break of support.
We expected volatility to increase (as mentioned last week) but no stretch of imagination 4,880 points being hit could be dreamt of. The trend continues to be up and we might finish this rise with a spurt close to the 78.6% retracement levels as well as the resistance line of the channel in brown. If the bears have to turn things around they have to ensure a daily close below 5,694 points. Till then the bulls are very much in control even though the oscillators have reached overbought territory. We are at an inflection point so keep the seat-belts on as the volatility is likely to remain high as a move on either side is likely.
(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst & chief strategist at www.trend4casting.com.)
Arvind Kejriwal alleged that Robert Vadra received undue benefits from several quarters and in just three years wealth of the Gandhi family's son-in-law has grown 600 times
Anti-corruption activist Arvind Kejriwal has alleged that Robert Vadra, the son-in-law of Congress chief Sonia Gandhi has amassed huge wealth and in just three years his (Vadra's) wealth has grown to over Rs300 crore from Rs50 lakh.
In a release, Kejriwal and his India Against Corruption (IAC) said, "In the last four years, Robert Vadra has gone on a property buying binge and has purchased at least 31 properties, mostly in and around New Delhi, which even at the time of their purchase were worth several hundred crores."
"An analusis of the balance sheets and audit reprots of five companies set up by him (and owned exclusively by him and his mother) on or after 1/11/2007 show that the total share capital of these companies was just Rs50 lakh and thse companies together had no income from any legitimate business activity (except by way of interest derived fron interest free loans obtained from DLF). Yet during 2007-2010, they have acquired properties which were worth well over Rs300 crore at that time and are worth more than Rs500 crore as of today," Kejriwal said.
Given the opaque style of functioning and NSE being the favoured exchange of SEBI, the exchange will go scot-free once again. However, SEBI should seek clarification from NSE and also penalise both exchanges for not following its circular on index-wide filters
The so-called high-tech systems of National Stock Exchange (NSE) failed today. The exchange which boasts as technologically advanced was hit by a trading error. What I wonder most was not the error but the index which had to stop trading as 10% circuit filter went all the down to 4,888 which is 15.8% down (As per NSE’s own website the day’s low is 4888.2).
If one reads the NSE's circular dated 28th September (http://www.nseindia.com/content/circulars/CMTR21799.pdf ), a 570 point (10%) should have triggered the circuit breaker. Once the circuit breaker is hit, the market (both NSE & BSE) have to be closed immediately for one hour.
Extract from the circular is as follows:
On September 28, 2012, the last trading day of the quarter, Nifty closed at 5,703.30 points. The absolute points of Nifty variation (over the previous day’s closing Nifty) which would trigger market-wide circuit breaker for any day in the quarter between 01 October 2012 and 31 December 2012 would be as under:
As regards, to circuit filter, this is what NSE website says: (http://www.nseindia.com/products/content/equities/equities/circuit_breakers.htm)
Index-based market-wide circuit breakers
The index-based market-wide circuit breaker system applies at three stages of the index movement, either way viz. at 10%, 15% and 20%.These circuit breakers when triggered, bring about a co-ordinated trading halt in all equity and equity derivative markets nationwide. The market-wide circuit breakers are triggered by movement of either the BSE Sensex or the NSE S&P CNX Nifty, whichever is breached earlier.
• In case of a 10% movement of either of these indices, there would be a one hour market halt if the movement takes place before 1:00pm. In case the movement takes place at or after 1:00pm but before 2:30pm there would be trading halt for half an hour. In case movement takes place at or after 2:30pm there will be no trading halt at the 10% level and market shall continue trading.
• In case of a 15% movement of either index, there shall be a two hour halt if the movement takes place before 1.00 pm. If the 15% trigger is reached on or after 1:00pm but before 2:00pm, there shall be a one hour halt. If the 15% trigger is reached on or after 2:00pm the trading shall halt for the remainder of the day.
• In case of a 20% movement of the index, trading shall be halted for the remainder of the day.
These percentages are translated into absolute points of index variations on a quarterly basis. At the end of each quarter, these absolute points of index variations are revised for the applicability for the next quarter. The absolute points are calculated based on closing level of index on the last day of the trading in a quarter and rounded off to the nearest 10 points in case of S&P CNX Nifty.
So as per today’s incident, NSE should have stopped trading as soon as it hit the 10% down circuit. How was this possible as the index went all the way down to 4,888, which is around 900 points down from previous close and more than 15%. The circular by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) further says that all exchanges shall stop trading once the limit is hit.
Further, I have seen so many freak trades like Tulip trading at 25% some years back. However, I have never seen multiple freak trades happening in multiple scrips.
1. How was it possible that market hit 15% downward limit and not stop at 10% while it was trading normally?
2. Why did BSE not stop trading as soon as the NSE circuit was hit as per SEBI circular?
3. How did NSE restart trading within minutes utterly disregarding the SEBI circular which says the market should be halted?
4. Do NSE and BSE have the powers to supersede the SEBI circular?
It is high time that NSE comes out with answers. I am sure that given the opaque style of functioning and NSE being the favoured exchange of SEBI, it will go scot-free once again.
I hope investors will get answers and I wish SEBI will gather the courage to stand up and seek clarification from NSE and also penalise both exchanges for not following its circular on index-wide filters.