Nifty 4,910-4,965: Crucial resistance area to watch out for

The bulls succeeded in arresting further damage in the first couple of days and the Nifty recovered towards the end of the week. If the Nifty holds the 4,619-4,647 points range in any decline, expect this corrective rise to continue around the 28th-29th of December

S&P Nifty close: 4,714    


Market Trend
Short Term Down        Medium Term Down            Long Term Down

The Nifty opened weak and slipped further to dip marginally below the first support level of the week of 4,549 points where the short-term oscillators reached oversold territory. This resulted in short-covering which saw the Nifty hit a high of 4,763 points before profit-taking pared some gains resulting in it closing 63 points (+1.34%) in the green. The sectoral indices which outperformed were BSE Oil & Gas (+3.26%), BSE FMCG (+3.20%), BSE Auto (+2.15%) and BSE Consumer Durables (+1.95%) while the underperformers were BSE Capital Goods (-3.18%), BSE Metal (-1.56%) and BSE Realty (-1.36%).   

The weekly histogram MACD remains below the median line confirming that the intermediate term trend is down. Last week’s recovery was on volumes which were on par with the previous week. Immediate resistance in this rise is pegged in the 4,882-4,910 points range from the retracement as well as the trendline which connects the tops of 5,360-5,099 points.

 Here are some key levels to watch out for this week

  • As long as the S&P Nifty stays above 4,669 points (pivot) the bulls’ hopes are alive and this contra trend rise could go a bit further.
  • Support levels in declines are pegged at 4,575 and 4,437 points.
  • Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 4,808 and 4,902 points.

Some Observations
1.    The bulls succeeded in arresting further damage in the first couple of days and the Nifty recovered towards the end of the week as expected.
2.    Resistance in rallies is pegged at 4,815 and 4,882 points (50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the fall from 5,099-4,531 points).
3.    Assuming that this corrective rise shows strength, then resistance is pegged at 4,862, 4,965 and 5,068 points (38.2%, 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the fall from 5,399-4,531 points).
4.    If the Nifty holds the 4,619-4,647 points range in any decline, expect this corrective rise to continue around the 28th-29th of this week.

The Nifty did recover some lost ground during the weekend as expected, but did not have the same vigour as the previous corrective rise. However, there is no confirmation as yet that this corrective rise is over and it could stretch itself up to the 28th-29th December where we could see a top taking place around the above mentioned resistance levels. The 4,910-4,965 points range is crucial resistance from the short-term trend perspective because the trendline connecting the tops of 5,360-5,099 points as well as the retracement level of the decline from 5,399-4,531 points falls within this range. Unless and until this is crossed decisively (in close) the bears will continue to have the upper hand and it would be prudent to exit trading long positions around the above mentioned dates.

(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst & chief strategist,


Piracy and sea cargo economy update...

 The business of saving ships from piracy is now apparently worth multiples of what the business of pirating ships accrues, and with shipping freight rates hardening in the dry bulk and liquid markets, and shooting through the roof in gas carrier trades, the effect of higher market values for vessel and cargo in these categories means much higher insurance costs also, which eventually get passed on to the consumer

Maritime piracy has been off the headlines for the last few months, not because it has upped and gone away thanks to a magic wand, but more so because the business of recovering captured ships for ransoms to be paid out has gone through some more evolutions. Briefly explained—preventive measures on many ships now include armed guards as well as strengthening of passive defence and the seafarers on ships that are captured are being treated as collateral damage by owners who are well covered for cargo and vessel.

In the midst of all this, a better class of owners, read—those with known background in shipping, and in it for the long run, set a pace and process which keeps people onboard in reasonable health and spirits, and also takes a pragmatic as well as humane approach in releasing the vessel, cargo (if any) and the humans on board. The release of the SAVINA CAYLYN, not without its share of drama, has been reported thus by an informed source at the maritime news website gCaptain, here:

The atypical two-part ransom drop was a response to the pirates’ previous refusals to release Indian hostages, even after being paid a ransom. The trend began on 15th April, when pirates holding the MT Asphalt Venture declined to release the eight Indian members of the crew, hoping to use them as pawns in a prisoner exchange for pirates captured by the Indian Navy. Since then, pirates have repeatedly refused to release Indian nationals, and have even gone so far as to declare their intention to ‘hunt’ Indian seafarers. The two-part drop was designed to avert another bad faith manoeuvre on the part of the pirates. “It was a tactic by the ship’s owners to make sure that the Indians were released,” explained a source in the pirate gang. “After they dropped the first $8.5 million by helicopter, they requested that we release the 17 Indians in small boats, and we agreed. After they had left, they dropped the other $3 million and we released the vessel and the five Italians. The Italian-flagged MV Savina Caylyn was hijacked on 8th February, 500 miles west of India. The pirate gang, which was based in the Harardheere area, was headed by Ilyaas, a well known pirate commander from the Murarsade sub-clan (a branch of the Hawiye).

In brief, the business of saving ships from piracy is now apparently worth multiples of what the business of pirating ships accrues, the numbers being thrown around are simply unreliable because nobody knows what is really going on. Except that billions of dollars are already being spent on armed security, additional insurance, re-designed citadels, deterrent equipment and of course, all the wheels of commerce that go with it. And piracy nets gains to a variety of similar people in millions. The fence, truly, is more valuable now than the crop.

In addition, recent infighting in the piracy-impacted parts of Somalia, unseasonal bad weather, and better tracking as well as shadowing of mother ships is paying dividends on the ground. However, different tactics like pre-identification of target ships as well as the grabbing of ships from ‘safe’ anchorages outside ‘safe’ ports by pirates hiding inside smaller ships (e.g. the hijack of the FAIRCHEM BOGEY with 21 Indian seafarers onboard from off Salalah in August 2011) indicates that matters may be reaching a more organised pattern.

 This does not, unfortunately, include the effect that these episodes have on the ‘traditional’ trade carried out on deep-sea dhows, piracy attacks on which usually don’t even get reported. However, they do impact the cost of doing traditional business, and that is a truth too all along the west coast of India

The overall effect on trade and commerce for India as a whole is also snowballing, and in an already recessionary economy globally, the eventual effect has not been felt so much on unitised general cargo carried in containers, where rates are still soft. However, with shipping freight rates hardening in the dry bulk and liquid markets, and shooting through the roof in gas carrier trades, the effect of higher market values for vessel and cargo in these categories means much higher insurance costs also, which eventually get passed on to the consumer.

In other words, landed cost at Indian ports of imported products like coal, gas, crude oil petroleum products, chemicals, edible oils and other bulk products will go up on the freight account, while commodity prices like the base price of gas, crude oil, petroleum products, coal and other commodities are rising—both dollar and rupee terms. The shortage of domestic iron ore may also see the surprising truth that we may now import iron ore—at about 10 times or more than the price it was exported about a year or two ago!

The demand for coal, furthermore, is going to shoot through the roof as more and more power plants come on line in the next few months. Captive coal sources are still not ready for a variety of reasons. Backward integration with mines abroad, in Indonesia for example, is also not going to provide a fixed cost hedge since even captive coal mines in Indonesia now need to reflect international prices for export purposes.

Oil prices as well as volumes are also most certainly going to head upwards, since almost nothing has actually been done on the ground with renewable energy projects, and it does not appear to be a priority for anyone. Likewise with gas further faces a shortage of storage capacity especially on the rapidly growing and consuming east coast, as well as severe constraints of access due to low draft in ports like Haldia and Paradeep.

Add to all this, the additional cost of piracy, the shortage of seafarers willing to work in piracy-impacted areas now that the authorities have literally put their hands up, and the even higher costs that foreign flag ship-owners will charge due to the terrible state of affairs with Indian flag shipping, seemingly all this happening with the benign approval of the authorities.

Here are some indicative numbers, gathered from various authentic sources:

  • The shortage of natural gas is likely to reach 30 million cubic metres per day by the end of 2011.
  • The average price of imported coal has almost tripled in the last five years, from $40 a tonne to about $125 a tonne, freight extra, and rising.
  • Freight rates can seldom be predicted, since they depend on a vast number of unrelated factors, but they are expected to start moving up as various international conventions on shipping start adding to the costs from 2012 onwards.
  • The export of iron ore at under-invoiced prices and the re-import at inflated prices is going to be a terrible scandal soon.

So while we celebrate the return of the seafarers released from the SAVINA CAYLYN, and salute all those who negotiated at great personal risk and stress to ensure that the Indian were returned safely, we need to also look beyond at those still stranded there, and more importantly, the larger effect this is having on the economy and security of the country.

It can’t be left to the Red Cross, as the authorities are suggesting in other cases, where the owners have put their hands up.

(Veeresh Malik started and sold a couple of companies, is now back to his first love—writing. He is also involved actively in helping small and midsize family-run businesses re-invent themselves.)



Saving account rate hike could put pressure on banks’ margins

The RBI says that the competition in this space, which was non-existent earlier, could rise as banks with lower CASA ratio could rush to gain such deposits by raising rates

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Financial Stability Report (FSR) for December 2011, warns that competition among the banks to offer higher interest rate on saving accounts could put pressure on banks’ margins.

According to the apex bank “The impact of such rate hikes on banks’ profitability will need to be monitored carefully as already the banks’ cost of funds have gone up and such rate hikes will put additional strains on banks’ net interest margin.”

It further added that the effect, however, may be muted, based on the churn in customers and cost structures adopted by individual banks. A corollary to the event would be that in a falling interest rate scenario, saving bank deposits rate may also moderate accordingly.”

The RBI says that the competition in this space, which was non-existent earlier, could rise as banks with lower CASA (current account savings account) ratio could rush to gain such deposits by raising rates.

According to the FSR, a major attraction of saving deposits for banks is that it offers low-cost source of funds, as evident from the fact that banks with higher share of CASA deposits (current account- saving account), of which saving deposits is a major part, enjoy low-cost deposits. CASA deposits are not uniform among the banks.
RBI feels that, “Banks are likely to partially offset the impact of the increase in interest cost by levying transaction and servicing charges and thus pass on the additional cost to the customer.”  

The apex on 25 October 2011 deregulated interest rates for savings accounts in banks. Subsequently few banks raised interest rates to 6% on savings accounts compared to the earlier 4%. For instance, private sector player YES Bank raised it up to 6% and recently raised it to 7% per annum on deposits of Rs1 lakh and above.

Kotak Mahindra Bank followed with 6% rate per annum on all savings accounts with balance above Rs1 lakh and IndusInd Bank is offering 5.5% per annum where the balance is below Rs1 lakh and 6% per annum for accounts having more Rs1 lakh.



Vinay Joshi

6 years ago


I'm perplexed that with Ms.Sucheta & Mr. Debashish around how you always get things wrong?

Write to me if i'm wrong!

What is the reverse repo rate? What is the overnight call money rate? Why RBI removes cap on 'mobile banking transactions'?

Why RBI has allowed banks to borrow additional from MSF? Why only on overnight basis? Further RBI has also stated that can borrow [-]1% SLR on overnight basis! It will not be construed as default in SLR!

Where is the liquidity? Advance Tax/Service tax has sucked it up!

About $160Bn India borrowings from EU is facing an uncertain future! De- leveraging!

By June 2012, $137Bn [43.5% of total present forex reserves!] external debt up for maturity.!?

What about NPA's? Bad debts!

SBI has done a wise thing of postponing its $5Bn FCB! WHY IT REQUIRED?

By Dec 17, banks had borrowed record 1.66L Cr. WHY?!!

It's 2.91% of aggregate instead of MSF 1%!

Is there credit growth? In fact lesser by 65K Cr. & deposit growth higher by 150K.Cr! WHY?!

Why RBI's US Treasury Holdings dropped by $6.6Bn?

Why RBI has infused thro" OMO 24K.Cr? [buy back of excess securities.]

So by raising int. rates the banks are retail borrowers, depositors park long term apart from 6%&7% paying banks depositors which is not for common man!

MDT, i've would have appreciated had you substantiated by real figures!



It was a bad piece of article, never ever expected from MoneyLife!

OH! You have to attribute it it to RBI Fin Report! What are your analysis!

PLEASE FORWARD TO ME RBI REPORT! It has never stated on retail margins! I'm reproducing hereunder the pertaining para for YOUR INFO!

Quote " Pointing out that bank margins could come under pressure, the RBI said servicing of loans have come under stress due to rise in input prices, interest rates, and slackening demand and infrastructure constraints"...... Unquote.

Sadly, Ms.Sucheta & MDT not highlighting that FSR has stated that the banking industry can cope with credit risk shocks!Neither on 'stress test'.

So Ms.Sucheta & MDT have it from me - not SB A/c int. but debts can create untoward position with current a/c & fiscal deficits!


N.B. never fake reports to put in your thoughts.



In Reply to Vinay Joshi 6 years ago

We readers really feel sorry to your parents who named you Vinay, where there is not even a single point in your rants that justifies the name.
Anyway, before calling a genuine report as fake because you think you are more wise and know everything is not good either. So stop barking. Here is the link to the original report
And keep your thoughts withing your eyes and ears only.

Vinay Joshi

In Reply to Paresh 6 years ago

Mr. Paresh,

I would have appreciated your professional response. It would have reflected you in high esteem.



6 years ago

"This is some sample text. You are using FCKeditor."

Where is the article?


Vinay Joshi

In Reply to sachin 6 years ago


FCKeditor is pase its CKEditor! OK!

What do you know about 'MoneyLife'?

What is some 'sample text'? What is the rating of CKEditor?

Well beyond comprehension.


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