‘Muhurat’ trading: What does history have to say?
This auspicious occasion has seen good buying—the Sensex has gained 1% (or more) on 13 out of the past 15 occasions. Last year saw the index at an all-time high of 21,004 points. But the next trading day has not lit up the index—the Sensex has closed on a negative note on 10 out of the last 15 trading sessions of the next day
‘Muhurat’ trading will be held on Wednesday, 26 October 2011, on the occasion of ‘Diwali Amavasya’ and ‘Laxmi Puja’) from 4.45pm to 6.00pm on both the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Going by historical data, the Sensex has closed at a gain of about 1% or more on 13 out of the last 15 ‘muhurat’ trading sessions. But in the following day, the market has taken a beating.
It was during the ‘muhurat’ trading session of last year (5 November 2010), when the Sensex closed at its highest in history—21,004.96 points. But compared to the previous day’s close, the indices were just half a percentage point up. Not much surprise here as over the last 15 years, the Sensex has gone up by about 1% on 12 occasions. The only major jump happened during the ‘muhurat’ trading session of 28 October 2008. Here the Sensex went up by as much as 6%. The index, which closed at 8,510 on the day before the eventful day, went on to close at 9,008.
The Sensex has registered a fall on just two prior occasions of ‘muhurat’ trading. One was in 2007, when it fell 1% from 19,059 to 18,908 and then way back in 1997 when it fell 3% from 3,934 to 3,803—the highest fall during ‘muhurat’ trading for the Sensex.
But what is more striking is the following day’s trade after ‘muhurat’ day. The Sensex has closed on a negative note on 10 out of the last 15 trading sessions of the next day. The story has been similar over the last couple of years; the index shed what it had gained on ‘muhurat’ trade. However, when the index gained 6% in 2008, it closed positive on the next day’s trading session as well. And it has been the only occasion in the last five years when the markets had closed positive on the day after ‘muhurat’ trading. So will tomorrow end with a bang... to be followed by a whimper?
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