In April, the Met department had predicted a normal monsoon with LPA of 99%

India’s crucial monsoon during the June to September period is most likely to be normal at 96%-104%, says the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

In a statement, the weather department said, “Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%. The LPA rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.”

The cumulated seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during the period 1st to 21st June is 76% of long period average.

Monsoon is crucial for the kharif crops such as rice, soyabean, cotton and maize because almost 60% of the farm land in the country is rain-fed.

As of today the monsoon has stopped in its tracks and may not advance further for another four days, the weather office said as it reported 26% deficient rainfall across the country this season.

Weather scientists, however, said there was no reason to worry as a couple of good spells could change the scenario and wipe out the deficit.

“Till now, monsoon rains are 26% deficient. But we are not worried as such delays are usual,” Laxman Singh Rathore, director general, IMD told reporters.

He said no “large northward migration” of the monsoon was expected for the next three to four days as the flows were affected by atmospheric storm ‘Talim’.

Earlier on 26th April, the Met department has predicted a normal monsoon with LPA of 99% with a model error of ±5%.
 
This year, setting in of southwest monsoon over Andaman Sea was delayed by about three days. It set in over Kerala on 5th June as against the IMD forecast date of 1st June. On 6th June, it rapidly advanced mainly along the west coast and over north-eastern states and  covered entire Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Goa, southern parts of Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, entire Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.  

After a hiatus in the advance of monsoon for a period of about one week, on 13th June, the monsoon further advanced into some more parts of Madhya Maharashtra, interior Karnataka, most parts of Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of south Bay of Bengal and some more parts of central and North Bay of Bengal. By 21st June, the monsoon covered most parts of Arabian Sea, extreme south Gujarat, most parts of Maharashtra, entire Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal & Sikkim, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bay of Bengal and some parts of east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh.

India is estimated to have harvested a record 252.56 million tonnes of foodgrain in the 2011-12 crop year as against 244.78 million tonnes in the previous year.

The country had witnessed a drought in 2009 when the El Nino conditions or warming of the central Pacific Ocean affected the monsoon rains.

Rains were within long-term averages in following years, helped by La Nina which is the cooling of the central Pacific Ocean.