Economy
Monsoon: Predicting an unpredictable climate system
As news both good and bad pours from across India, the monsoon is once again in the limelight. From farmers, scientists and economists to astrologers, the monsoon has a significance unlike any other climate phenomenon in India.
 
The monsoon provides around 80 per cent of the total rainfall in India. Getting monsoon predictions right occupies much attention of the weather department in India so that governments can make adjustments to their policies and prepare for droughts or floods according to the likely rainfall pattern.
 
However, the Asian monsoon, unlike its counterparts in West Africa and Australia, has been characterised by remarkable unpredictability and seasonal changes in wind direction and quantity and location of rain. Climate change due to global warming has added yet another dimension of unreliability to the monsoon. Understanding the timing, duration and intensity of the monsoon is vital if predictions of drought and flood are to be made.
 
Any marginal change, say a 5 to 10 per cent, in the total rainfall may appear to be small but these apparently small variations in the Indian monsoon can influence agricultural production and the stocks and commodities market in a big way. The variability of rainfall on shorter time scales has the biggest impacts.
 
For instance, intense heavy rainfall leads to flooding while the breaks in monsoon for over a week or more lead to water shortage and agricultural drought. Evenly distributed rainfall over the four monsoon months could be referred to as the best monsoon. 
 
The variations in seasonal rainfall are often related to weather in other parts of the world, such as El Niño events in the Pacific Ocean. Simulations of future climate generally suggest an increase in monsoon rainfall on a seasonal mean, area-average basis.
 
This is due to the twin drivers of an increasing land-sea thermal contrast, but more importantly due to warming over the Indian Ocean which allows more moisture to be carried to India. Typically, increases in the total rainfall over India may be in the range of 5-10 per cent, although some climate models suggest more and some less.
 
The current climate models suggest greater variability in monsoon rainfall from year to year in a warmer world. In the future, it is expected that there will be extreme weather events with excessive rainfall in some years with low to very low rainfall in other years.
 
Most importantly, the regions that earlier experienced sufficient rainfall could face droughts while those that experienced lower rainfall could face floods frequently. The Indian summer climate in the coming century looks to be wetter on average, together with flood and drought conditions occurring more often.
 
It is important to build better capability to simulate the day-to-day and intra-seasonal variability of monsoon in climate models with more confidence in projections. In the future, increasing population along with various developmental priorities will bring additional stresses on society and the environment, with serious implications for water resources, health and food security.
 
Thus, the possibility that the monsoon may become less stable as a result of climate change has serious consequences for India.
 
There is an urgent need to improve the science of monsoon predictions and its applications. Such measures will help millions to adapt to emerging scenarios and tide over the predicaments of climate change. Using state-of-the art climate models and observations, researchers are investigating the processes that control the monsoon rain and its variability and it is hoped that accurate scientific predictions about the unpredictable monsoon will be possible in the near future.
 
Disclaimer: Information, facts or opinions expressed in this news article are presented as sourced from IANS and do not reflect views of Moneylife and hence Moneylife is not responsible or liable for the same. As a source and news provider, IANS is responsible for accuracy, completeness, suitability and validity of any information in this article.

 

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COMMENTS

Dinesh Kumar Chauksey

10 months ago

Who is responsible/liable/accountable for maintaining adequate liquidity in Banks? Is it RBI or Gov (FM)? I think it should be RBI (I may be wrong ). If RBI fails in it's duty and gov has to put in to Banks some money (almost 1lac cr during RRR's tenure) . Then how does it impects the common men and Gov? This money could have been utilised for dev/infrastr etc purposes . This money was collected by taxing the Ppl Thought different types of surcharges/additional taxes.

MG Warrier

10 months ago

My comment posted here relates to another article. Regrets.

MG Warrier

10 months ago

We can go with Chidambaram’s assessment of the book. He said: “A learned, meticulous and honest account of Dr Subbarao’s five years at the helm of RBI. His intellectual integrity shines on every page of the book”. Though there are volumes and volumes covering the working and evolution of RBI, in this book, in less than 350 pages, the author gives a bird’s eye view of the role of RBI in the economic development of India and more importantly, makes the reader understand that every move by RBI affects citizens in one way or the other. The author has successfully explained delicate policy concepts handled by RBI without using ‘jargon and charts’. A word about this review by Sucheta Dalal. Perhaps this is the first one appearing in the media by someone who has gone through the book!

Modi cautions people on mobile, internet frauds
 Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday cautioned citizens against falling victim to frauds perpetrated through the use of mobile phones and internet.
 
"People receive tempting offers of gift prizes and other swindling schemes over their mobile phones or via internet," Modi said in his monthly 'Mann Ki Baat' address over the radio, referring to reports of a women committing suicide after being duped in this manner.
 
"These are new ways thrown up by technology to loot the public. I know of a retired person with a daughter to marry off and a home to build, who received such a gift offer from abroad, asking that he first deposit Rs 2 lakh in a bank as customs duty for receiving the item," he said.
 
"A new way of digital crime is where criminals falsely get your bank, credit card details and soon find their accounts emptied of money. People should become aware and not fall into the trap of such tempting offers," the Prime Minister added.
 
Disclaimer: Information, facts or opinions expressed in this news article are presented as sourced from IANS and do not reflect views of Moneylife and hence Moneylife is not responsible or liable for the same. As a source and news provider, IANS is responsible for accuracy, completeness, suitability and validity of any information in this article.

 

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Petrol cut by Rs 1.42 a litre, diesel by Rs 2.01
Amid the recent fluctuation in global oil prices, state-run Indian Oil Corp (IOC) cut the price of transport fuels on Sunday effective from midnight, of petrol by Rs 1.42 a litre and of diesel by Rs 2.01, both at Delhi, with corresponding decrease in other states.
 
Making its previous fortnightly revision in fuel prices on July 16, IOC had cut petrol by Rs 2.25 a litre and diesel by Rs 42 paise, both at Delhi.
 
Petrol per litre from Monday will cost Rs 61.09 in Delhi, Rs 64.97 in Kolkata, Rs 65.70 in Mumbai and Rs 60.65 in Chennai.
 
Similarly, diesel will cost Rs 52.27 in Delhi, Rs 54.57 in Kolkata, Rs 57.47 in Mumbai and Rs 53.73 in Chennai.
 
The Indian basket of crude oils closed trade on Thursday at $40.81 a barrel, lower than $41.63 on previous day, as per official data.
 
Meanwhile, parliament was informed earlier this week that nine excise duty hikes over a span of few months helped the government almost triple its excise earnings from petrol and diesel to about Rs 70,000 crore during 2015-16.
 
Disclaimer: Information, facts or opinions expressed in this news article are presented as sourced from IANS and do not reflect views of Moneylife and hence Moneylife is not responsible or liable for the same. As a source and news provider, IANS is responsible for accuracy, completeness, suitability and validity of any information in this article.

 

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COMMENTS

A.Chandramouliswaran

10 months ago

I have not yet read the book of Dr Subba Rao. I thought I should at least read your write up on the book before I offer my comments. I must at the outset confess that as I had retired almost 15 years ago from RBI and with changes having taken place during this period, my critical observations may not be valid. However, on the basis of the general trend in the country, even if things have changed they might have changed only for the worse! You have been quite critical of Dr Subba rao in so far as the exercise of the RBI's role of regulation and supervision of banks and customer service for middle class. In the exercise of its regulatory and supervision function over banks, NBFCs etc, it has not been effective since it does not have the required freedom and autonomy. The interference of Government in these matters prevents the effective functioning by the RBI. One can argue that the bank is also responsible for allowing its autonomy and independence to be eroded and that perhaps it was only too willing to assume a role subordinate to that of the Government. One wonders whether any Governor would be allowed to follow his own course. It would, therefore, be fair to point out the failings of the RBI in these areas only when it has been granted autonomy in law and the Governor is appointed for a period of 5 years( if not six years) and given the constitutional protection granted to CEC, C&AG, judges of the Supreme court. In the matter of NPAs of banks , the following measures may help:
1. Public sector banks have to fix accountability at various levels for the follow up and timely measures for recovery of loans. Officials are found to have failed to act promptly would have to be punished after following the procedures for disciplinary action.
2. RBI would have to be tough in acting on their inspection findings and ensuring corrective action promptly.
3. The talk of exempting the Public sector bank officials from the scrutiny of CVC, CBI etc should be given up since there has been a lot of corruption in the grant of loans and insistence on conditions subject tow which the loans were granted .
3. RBI would have to be extraordinarily tough in punishing officials of banks for violations of its rules/regulations. RBI has been too soft and the banks are not at all scared of the RBI. Banks which have been guilty of non-compliance with KYC norms etc have been allowed to escape with a paltry amount by way of fine. Officials have to be dismissed from service for wrong doings and the fear of the RBI ( if not of God!) has to be created.
As regards the Central board of the RBI is concerned, one does not know as to what useful function is performed by it.Independent members in the Board function in the manner in which independent members generally function in the banks, companies etc! In











































the past, some members have been allowed to continue much beyond their term. The



Central Board just complies with the statutory requirement in the RBI Act!

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