There is the urgent need to ensure timely distribution of foodgrain in the affected states so that the people do not suffer

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) confirms that there is a monsoon deficit of 22% in the whole country. However, today’s press reports indicate that rainfall has been very inadequate in Punjab (66%) and Haryana (70%), where the situation is grim. In fact, it is feared that the situation could be worse than our 2009 experience.

According to Professor KV Thomas, minister of state (independent charge) for consumer affairs and public distribution, poor rains will not affect “foodgrain availability”. However, he feels the impact will be more on the production of pulses and oilseeds. This will also result in shortage of cattle-feed.

Earlier, some two weeks ago, Ashok Gulati, chairman of Agricultural Costs & Prices (CACP) had stated that “we have adequate foodgrain stocks” to tide over a monsoon failure. He had contended that, in fact, the food inflation was due to higher vegetable prices, particularly that of onion and potatoes.

Sensing the situation, activists of the Rights to Food campaign have written to the prime minister that the government need to stop the export of 2 million tonnes (MT) of wheat as they fear that these will be eventually used to feed the cattle, while people are starving in the country. Thus, the subsidized export should not be allowed; if not these will also land up in the black market. STC had cancelled export orders for 98,000 tonnes of wheat to a Swiss firm (Glencore) but had earlier sold some 30,000 tonnes at $238 whereas the global prices have gone up, with Ukraine/Russia selling at $278 while Chicago Board of Trade price hovered around $310.

The government must direct its attention to take care of the deteriorating situation in the affected areas first before allowing further export shipments.

Solution to overflowing stocks is not simply by so called exports, because of the past experience of false invoicing. There is the urgent need to ensure timely distribution of foodgrain in the affected states so that the people do not suffer.

Under the circumstances, the government has called for an urgent meeting of an Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) to assess the grim situation; should they officially declare a ‘drought’, it will be third in the last decade.

Although the foodgrain stocks are currently estimated at 81 MT, there is likely to be a shortfall in the case of coarse cereals, oilseeds and pulses, which cannot be made up overnight. This means, in the very short run, some quantities of these may have to be imported, a decision that may figure in the ensuing meeting, apart from handling the crisis situation due to prospective monsoon failure.

It is needless to say that the affected farmers in the rainfall deficit states would require urgent assistance in every possible way.

(AK Ramdas has worked with the Engineering Export Promotion Council of the ministry of commerce and was associated with various committees of the Council. His international career took him to places like Beirut, Kuwait and Dubai at a time when these were small trading outposts; and later to the US. He can be contacted at anantha_ramdas@yahoo.com.)