Citizens' Issues
Modi & Manmohan: 1 Year, spot the differences

In seven of 12 indicators evaluated by IndiaSpend, the data reveal a similar trend - a reasonable economic performance after an economic downturn

 

The economy rebounded; exports and imports declined, foreign-exchange reserves grew; coal production, electricity generation and petroleum consumption rose, non-performing assets (NPAs) in banking soared.
 
There are great similarities between Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first year in office - which he completes on May 26 - and the corresponding first year of his predecessor, Manmohan Singh's last term.
 
In seven of 12 indicators evaluated by IndiaSpend, the data reveal a similar trend - a reasonable economic performance after an economic downturn. 
 
The large variations in the first-year period centre on:
 
Industrial production: In Modi's first year, the index of industrial production (IIP) for eight core sectors (coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity) grew 5 percent during 2014-15 against 4.2 percent the previous year. In Singh's first year, the IIP for six core industries (crude oil, refinery products, coal, electricity, cement and finished carbon steel) grew 10.4 percent, compared to 2.8 percent in the previous year 2008-09.
 
Exports and imports: In terms of dollars, exports and imports declined 2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, in 2014-15 from 2013-14. In Singh's first year (of his second term) exports and imports declined far more sharply, 4 percent and 5 percent, respectively, in 2009-10 compared to 2008-09.
 
Nuclear energy: With the commissioning of the Kudankulam Unit-1 of 1,000 mw in Tamil Nadu during December 2014, India's installed nuclear capacity reached 5,780 mw in 2014-15 from 4,780 MW in 2013-14, an increase of 21 perccent. In 2009-10, it was up 10.6 percent from the previous year.
 
Direct comparisons are difficult, considering that Singh was in his second term in office. Modi carries Singh's economic legacy, which worsened considerably by the end of the term, attributed by observers to a global downturn and misgovernance.
 
But these indicators offer a broad statistical evaluation of the first years of Modi and Singh during UPA2.
 
A journey through the numbers
 
Economic Growth: Overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2009-10, at constant prices, was reported to be 8.9 percent. After a change in calculation and base year, GDP growth isestimated to be 7.4 percent for 2014-15.
 
Agriculture: Agriculture, which employs about 600 million Indians, registered growth of 1.1 percent in 2014-15 compared to 0.8 percent during 2009-10. The numbers indicate a long-standing - and worsening - crisis.
 
Foreign-exchange reserves: Forex reserves increased 12 percent from $341 billion at the end of 2014-15 as compared to $304 billion at the end of 2013-14. For Singh in UPA2, they increased 5.4 percent from $241.7 billion at the end of 2008-09 to $254.9 billion in 2009-10.
 
Coal: Coal from India's mines increased 8.2 percent in 2014-15, later falling into a controversy over botched allotments, one of the reasons for the decline in UPA2's image. In 2009-10, production increased 8.1 percent. Performance of the coal sector is expected to improve with the re-allotment of 67 coal blocks through an auction, although Modi's figure of Rs.2 lakh crore ($31.25 billion) windfall is now contested.
 
Petroleum: In 2014-15, consumption of petroleum products (diesel, petrol, LPG and the like) increased 3.1 percent, compared to 3.2 percent during 2009-10. India's demand for petroleum products is expected to grow 3.3 percent in the next financial year, according to the oil ministry.
 
Electricity: A good indicator of an economy's health, installed electricity capacity in 2014-15, rose 10 percentagainst 2013-14. In 2009-10, it increased 7.7 percent over the previous year.
 
Renewable energy: With pressure on India to cut carbon emissions renewable energy - it is responsible for 12 percent of India's total installed power - growth rates were high during both terms. The total installed capacity of renewable energy reported a 7.56 percent growth in 2014-15 and growth of 17.20 percent in 2009-10.
 
Non-performing assets: NPAs of public sector banks increased 17 percent from Rs.2.27 lakh crore in March 2014 to Rs.2.73 lakh crore in December 2014, a carry-over from UPA2. Public sector bank NPAs had increased 23 percent in 2009-10 over the previous year. NPA growth rates of this magnitude can destabilise the banking system.
 

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COMMENTS

Chandragupta Acharya

2 years ago

Given that govt policies affect the real economy with a lag, such comparison does not make much sense

tikku

2 years ago

The difference is that prices have soared so high that por people cannot even eat properly. We cursed MM but now we all appreciate old days---

N R KANNAN

2 years ago

Why not try comparing with best year of UPA instead 6th year? Way to go! Meaningless article indeedf! Should have been a comparison of 2013-14 with 2014-15 for proper assessment, instead what we have hear is passing off 6th year of UPA as though it was first year. What did it inherit in 2004? And was 2014 same as 2004?. Clearly agenda driven!

N R KANNAN

2 years ago

Why not try comparing with best year of UPA instead 6th year? Way to go! Meaningless article indeedf! Should have been a comparison of 2013-14 with 2014-15 for proper assessment, instead what we have hear is passing off 6th year of UPA as though it was first year. What did it inherit in 2004? And was 2014 same as 2004?. Clearly agenda driven!

Anand Doctor

2 years ago

The most important part of the article:

"Direct comparisons are difficult, considering that Singh was in his second term in office. Modi carries Singh's economic legacy, which worsened considerably by the end of the term, attributed by observers to a global downturn and misgovernance."

Just like we don't annualise and compare returns of equity funds after one month, it would perhaps be more prudent to compare the above 2 after one full term...

REPLY

srinivas

In Reply to Anand Doctor 2 years ago

I thought they were comparing Modi's 1st year with Manmohan's 1st year in office. No, they are comparing Modi's first year with Manmohan's 6th year. I would have expected this from MSM, but not Moneylife.Looks like Moneylife is quickly catching up with MSM on misleading articles.

tikku

2 years ago

I expected nothing else. All political parties will do the same, or one may say,--it is not the achievement by the Govt, It is by the people. Therefore, Govt must work for the people and not for themselves/votes. People will do better if environment is conducive.

tikku

2 years ago

I expected nothing else. All political parties will do the same, or one may say,--it is not the achievement by the Govt, It is by the people. Therefore, Govt must work for the people and not for themselves/votes. People will do better if environment is conducive.

ED to take two accused of IPL betting to Gujarat

Chief Metropolitan Magistrate Sanjay Khanagwal granted the ED the transit remand of accused Ritesh Bansal and Ankush Bansal

 

Two men arrested by the Enforcement Directorate here for running a hawala racket and betting syndicate related to the ongoing Indian Premier League tournament, will be taken by the agency to Ahmedabad, Gujarat, for investigation.
 
A court here on Monday gave the Enforcement Directorate three days' transit remand of the two men and directed the agency to present them before a local court in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, on May 13. 
 
Chief Metropolitan Magistrate Sanjay Khanagwal granted the ED the transit remand of accused Ritesh Bansal and Ankush Bansal. 
 
The ED arrested the duo from Delhi, alleging that they were involved in sending the money in and outside the country through hawala transactions.
 
The ED told court that there is a hawala racket worth Rs.800 crore going on, and that the large-scale racket in online international cricket betting was taking place through Britain-based website "Betfair.com".
 
A case has been registered under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA).

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Pulse Beat
Medical developments from around the world
 

Pet Owners Beware

We are very fond of our pets, especially dogs and cats. Some people have reptiles and exotic birds at home. Having a pet is assumed to be very good for one’s health and also to avoid depression. Yet, if a very high degree of hygiene standards are not kept, the risk to human health from pets could, at times, be even life-threatening.
 
Toxoplasmosis (infection from parasitic bacteria), intestinal worms like hookworm, salmonella, campylo-bacterial diarrhoea, common cold from dogs, cat scratch disease and the deadly rabies from warm-blooded animals are the risks one takes while keeping pets. We, in India, do not have strict rules governing pets. The main danger to human health comes from dog and cat excreta on roads. Most pet keepers do not clean up after their pets. Strict cleaning is a must. Washing hands after contact with animals and their excreta should be routine.
 
If one keeps birds, a big risk is psittacosis or parrot fever, a bacterial disease caused by chlamydia psittaci—a type of bacteria—that humans can contract through inhalation of bird secretions, including urine and faeces.
 

Breast Screening May Reveal Heart Disease

If scanning of breasts show calcified breast arteries, the likelihood of coronary arteries being calcified is also quite high. If a woman past middle age has calcified breast arteries, she is advised to have a full cardiac evaluation for preventive steps.
 

Smell Sweat, Be Happy!

Pheromones (described as behaviour-altering agents by some) are known to transfer emotions to others. In a recent study at the Utrecht University (The Netherlands), the researchers—both psychiatrists—found that persons could transfer their happy state of mind via their sweat to those who smell them or come close to them. The researchers said: “We observed that exposure to body odour collected from senders of chemo signals in a happy state induced a facial expression and perceptual-processing style indicative of happiness in the receivers of those signals. Our findings suggest that not only negative (effect) but also a positive state (happiness) can be transferred by means of odours.” 
 
Women showed more signs of happiness in this study, according to Gün Semin, one of the researchers.
 

Obesity and Cause(s)

Although exercise has many health benefits, not exercising is not a significant cause of obesity, as are sugars and other refined carbohydrates in food. Even if one were to exercise for an hour a day, the amount of calories spent cannot be compensated as much as they are by strict dieting.
 

Depression and Meditation

A recent study showed that meditation is as effective as any anti-depressant drug in the treatment of depression. This is good news, for two reasons. Most, if not all, anti-depressants encourage suicidal tendencies. They also have many other unpleasant side-effects. Another significant reason is that latest quantum physics puts the mind outside the brain. So treating brain tissues with drugs might not have any relation to human mind. 

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