Markets closed on account of ‘Mahashivratri’

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), National Stock Exchange (NSE), foreign exchange, money and all commodity markets, including bullion, oils and oilseeds, are closed today for 'Mahashivratri'. Regular trading will resume on Tuesday.

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Oil jumps to 9-month high after Iran cuts supply to Britain, France

Iran's oil minister Rostam Qassemi had warned earlier this month that Tehran could cut off oil exports to 'hostile' European nations. The 27-nation EU accounts for about 18% of Iran's oil exports

Singapore: Oil prices jumped to a nine-month high near $105 a barrel today in Asia after Iran said it halted crude exports to Britain and France in an escalation of a dispute over the Middle Eastern country's nuclear programme, reports PTI.

Benchmark crude was up $1.75 to $104.99 per barrel at mid-day Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Earlier in the day, it rose to $105.21, the highest since May. The contract rose 93 cents to settle at $103.24 per barrel in New York on Friday.

Brent crude was up $1.52 at $121.10 per barrel in London.

Iran's oil ministry no Sunday said it stopped crude shipments to British and French companies in an apparent pre-emptive blow against the European Union after the bloc imposed sanctions on Iran's crucial fuel exports. They included a freeze of the country's central bank assets and an oil embargo set to begin in July.

Iran's oil minister Rostam Qassemi had warned earlier this month that Tehran could cut off oil exports to 'hostile' European nations. The 27-nation EU accounts for about 18% of Iran's oil exports.

The EU sanctions along with other punitive measures imposed by the US are part of Western efforts to derail Iran's disputed nuclear programme, which the West fears is aimed at developing atomic weapons. Iran denies the charges, and says its programme is for peaceful purposes.

Oil prices were also boosted by China's decision to boost money supply in a bid to spur lending and economic growth.

China's central bank said on Saturday it will lower the ratio of funds that banks must hold as reserves, a move that frees tens of billions of dollars.

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Exponential rise sees the Nifty hitting the Wolfe Wave Pattern target

A bearish candle in the next couple of days would also signal that the Nifty is ripe for at least a small correction as we have seen a stupendous rise for the 7th week in a row. it would be prudent to book profits because “It’s better to be safe than sorry” in the short-term

S&P Nifty close: 5564.30 

 
Short Term: Up        Medium Term: Up            Long Term: Down

The Nifty opened flat on the very first day of the week and rallied further to rise for the 7th week in a row. Volumes during the rise were significantly higher compared to the previous week as the Nifty gained 3.39% last week. The sectoral indices which outperformed were BSE Reality (+10.18%), BSE Power (+8.54%), BSE Capital Goods (+7.90%), BSE Consumer Durables (+7.76%), BSE Bankex (+7.25%) and BSE Auto (+6.24%) while the gross underperformers were BSE Oil & Gas (-1.44%), BSE Healthcare (+0.44%) and BSE Fast Moving Consumer Durables (+0.54%).   

The weekly histogram MACD continued to move higher and is above the median line indicating strength. We have seen the Nifty rally for the 7th consecutive week (Fibonacci number) in which it has risen more than 23% resulting it becoming further overbought in the weekly charts. In the process it has completed the target as per the Wolfe Wave pattern by hitting the trendline.

 Here are some key levels to watch out for this week

  • As long as the S&P Nifty stays above 5,507 points (pivot) the bulls are in control even in the shorter time frame and the bears have to make efforts to push prices below this.
  • Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,408 and 5,252 points.
  • Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,663 and 5,762 points.

Some Observations
1.    The EPA target as per the Wolfe Wave pattern has been hit, hence one has to closely watch the trendline in pink as it will offer resistance.
2.    It is also nearing the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from 6,338-4,531 points which is pegged at 5,648 points.
3.    Despite the sharp rise the weekly averages continue to be negatively phased implying that a small decline is around the corner.

Strategy
As shown above the target as per the Wolfe Wave pattern has already been achieved and the trendline in pink offers resistance in rallies. One should therefore raise their stop loss on longs to below the low of the last trading session (5,545 as of Friday). A bearish candle in the next couple of days would also signal that the Nifty is ripe for at least a small correction as we have seen a stupendous rise for the 7th week in a row. The "gap area" between 5,428 and 5,460 has also to be watched closely as a closure of that would also indicate a weakening in the very short-term. The odds are in favour of a correction though one has to wait for a price confirmation for the same. However, it would be prudent to book profits because "It's better to be safe than sorry" in the short-term.

(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst & chief strategist at www.trend4casting.com)

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