Market under stress: Weekly Market Report

Nifty to move in the range of 4,800 to 5,000

Greece's struggle to implement harsher austerity measures in a bid to gain confidence of international monetary agencies for a fresh bailout package pushed aside fears of a domestic slowdown that was portrayed by Indian policymakers, resulting in the Indian stock market closing the week with a gain of 2%. However, the market shrank 12% in the September 2011 quarter, posting its worst quarterly performance since the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.

Issues relating to the debt crisis in Europe and its impact on the world economy kept the market down on Monday. However, positive global news enabled the market to notch up gains of 3% the next day. Concerns about lower second quarter corporate earnings dragged the indices down on Wednesday. The market bounced back on Thursday on buying in auto & IT stocks. Pressure on metal stocks after the Cabinet cleared the new Mines Bill, which seeks mining companies to share profit with project-impacted people, pushed the market down on Friday.

The Sensex gained 292 points to close the week at 16,454 and the Nifty added 76 points to settle at 4,943. Economic events are likely to keep the Nifty in the range of 4,800 to 5,000.

In the sectoral space, BSE IT (up 6%) and BSE TECk (up 4%) were the top gainers, while BSE Metal (down 5%) and BSE Consumer Durables (down 4%) led the losers.

The top Sensex gainers were DLF (up 10%), Infosys, Jaiprakash Associates (up 8% each), Tata Motors (up 6%) and Reliance Industries (up 5%). The key losers were Coal India (down 9%), Sterlite Industries (down 7%), Larsen & Toubro (down 6%), Hero MotoCorp (down 5%) and Tata Steel (down 4%).

Among Nifty stocks, DLF (up 11%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 9%), Infosys, Jaiprakash Associates (up 8% each) and Tata Motors (up 6%) were the major gainers. The main losers were Reliance Capital (down 22%), Reliance Infrastructure (down 13%), Reliance Communications (down 9%), Sterlite Industries (down 7%) and Larsen & Toubro (down 6%).

Rising prices of essential kitchen items like potato and pulses pushed food inflation closer to the double-digit mark at 9.13% for the week ended 17th September from 8.84% in the previous week. Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee termed the rise in food inflation as 'grave'.

Also, finance and revenue secretary RS Gujral raised concerns over the dip in direct tax collection growth, saying it was indicative of a 'slowdown in the economy'. The overall advance tax collections are estimated to have grown by 12% in the September quarter against the Budget target of 19%. For the top 100 companies, the growth was a modest 9.9%. Other analysts have also expressed concerns that weakening global economic environment and repeated rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its quest to tame the uncomfortable inflation number are having an adverse impact on the economy.

On the international front, Germany has completed its ratification of the expanded euro-zone bailout fund with both houses of the German parliament endorsing the plan designed to stop the sovereign debt crisis spreading in the 17-nation euro area. The approval paves the way to increase the size of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to 780 billion euro from the present level of 440 billion euro.

Meanwhile, St Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard said the Fed is ready to ease its monetary policy should the US economy weaken, while keeping an eye on inflation risks. The US economy is facing a serious crisis with the jobless rate at around 9% since April 2009. The economy lost momentum in August as consumer spending declined and incomes unexpectedly dropped for the first time in almost two years.


The ‘Navratri’ rainbow: Festive colours spill over into normal life

The two-year-old ‘tradition’ —of sporting uniform colours on a particular day— is fast becoming popular

The most cheerfully strange 'tradition' of the 'Navratri' colour code seems to have enamoured Mumbai. The trains, railway stations, streets and public hangouts seem to be teeming with people in colour-coordinated outfits.

The 'Navratri' colour scheme seems to be a recent addition to the festival, and it sure has made a lot of women happy. Even the daily commuters look unbelievably chirpy—for once, not minding rising early and taking extra care to deck themselves up in the colour of the day. There is mutual appreciation on the ride, followed by discussions on the look for the next day—before gushing out at the destination in a uniformly-coloured flow.

The media seems to have taken an active interest in popularising the code. Many articles have appeared in newspapers, talking about the importance of the colour scheme, and offering fashion tips, that will make you blend in or rather, stand out in the uni-colour crowd. And the hype seems to have paid off well.

Where did this tradition of colours come from? Interestingly, nobody is sure. "We never followed it. But two or three years back, everyone started talking about it. And then in a train, everyone was planning to wear that colour together. Soon, I was doing the same," says a Mumbai resident.

Traditionally, red, green and yellow have been associated with the Goddess—which symbolise power & strength, growth & prosperity and auspiciousness. However, a few years back, other colours joined the list, with each day being allotted one colour. This year, the nine consecutive colours are: blue, yellow, green, grey, orange, white, red, purple and pink.

Notwithstanding the origin, the colour scheme seems to have touched everyone. Even the shopkeepers, food-stall owners and dabbawallahs are adhering to it. Temple premises look especially colourful—with the devotees lighting up the sanctum and the line of flower and prasad-sellers outside offering another bright splash.

Maharashtrians have little to do with the colour scheme in their rituals. But now, they are following the code happily. 'Navaratri' is the most important festival for Gujaratis, but even they seem to be unaware of the code.

"We don't have any colour scheme," said a Gujarati lady, "We wear our best clothes for the dandiya, but we don't have one particular colour for one day. The trend seems to be pretty recent, and I don't know how it came about. But it is fun to board a train and see everyone wearing the same colour. And the colour is just another excuse to go shopping!"

And boy, do colours sell. Almost all the roadside shops and showrooms are thronging with women who want to buy new sarees and salwar suits according to the colour.

"For the festive season, nobody likes to recycle old clothes. So we buy new colours," says Shrusti Mishra, a college student.

Of course, shopkeepers are very happy. The Goddess of wealth seems to have showered her blessings. Hopefully, when she arrives, the boons will multiply.


Govt discusses listing, profit norms for stock exchanges

There was a general consensus about allowing the stock exchanges to get listed, improving the efficiency and transparency in their business and allowing greater competition in the business However, there was no unanimity on the Jalan panel's proposal for capping the profitability and for the shareholding pattern of the exchanges

New Delhi: The government on Friday discussed with the stock exchanges the long-pending proposals made by a Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)-appointed panel for sweeping changes on how the bourses should be owned and run, reports PTI.

The committee, headed by former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Bimal Jalan, had submitted its report to the market regulator SEBI in November last year.

The report recommended capping the stock exchanges' profitability and barring them from getting listed to safeguard their role as a front-line regulatory body.

The proposals have been pending for about a year now and were deliberated here in a discussion amongst the senior finance ministry officials and the top executives of various stock exchanges, including NSE, BSE and MCX-SX.

Among others, economic affairs secretary R Gopalan, joint secretary (capital markets) Thomas Mathew and Mr Jalan expressed their views on the matter.

Sources said there was a general consensus about allowing the stock exchanges to get listed, improving the efficiency and transparency in their business and allowing greater competition in the business.

It was felt that listing of the exchanges could lead to better corporate governance practises at the bourses.

The government officials are believed to have said the issue needs to be tackled carefully and a calibrated approach was required before allowing the listing.

Sources said many of the participants, including government officials and industry executives, suggested segregating the regulatory and business roles of the bourses before their listing.

It was discussed that either the regulatory role could be entirely vested with the market regulator SEBI, or the exchanges' regulatory powers could be partly divided between SEBI and a new Self-Regulatory Organisation (SRO) formed with representation from various industry players.

However, there was no unanimity on the Jalan panel's proposal for capping the profitability and for the shareholding pattern of the exchanges.

One of the options, proposed by an exchange, included allowing the exchanges to have an anchor investor with up to 26% stake, while the other options were for having a more diversified shareholding and following the global models.

The senior government officials are believed to have opined that the issue of conflict of interest required to be tackled and one of the options could be hiving off the regulatory and surveillance functions of the exchanges to the outside agencies or SROs.

Even Mr Jalan is said to be of the opinion that the listing of stock exchanges was a completely open question, but any changes in existing regulators required to be tackled carefully as the markets were going through uncertain times.

The Jalan Committee, set up in January 2010, for review of ownership and governance norms for market infrastructure institutions, submitted its report to SEBI in November last year. The latter then invited comments on it till 31st December.

The proposals generated intense debate and proposals like non-listing of bourses and cap on profitability were opposed and termed as anti-investor measures.

In the wake of stiff opposition to the proposals, SEBI later put the ball in the government's court.

Thereafter, a committee was set up by the ministry of corporate affairs (MCA) to discuss the proposed rules, which held its consultations in May.

In its meeting with the representatives from the bourses, industry bodies, accounting bodies and other market entities, the MCA sought suggestions on a roadmap for segregation of regulatory and commercial roles of the exchanges.

It was proposed that steps need to be taken to keep the front-line regulatory role of the bourses unaffected by their profit-making and other business interests after they become publicly held companies following their listing.

On its part, the SEBI board has not even discussed the matter in its last few board meetings as it was waiting for suggestions from the government on the contentious issues emanating from the Jalan Committee proposals.

It is expected that the matter could come up for the SEBI board's consideration in its next meeting, once the government takes a final view after consultations with various parties.


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