‘India can surpass US economy in three decades’

An economist has said that India needs to work on its governance, education system, human resource needs and competitiveness

India can emerge as the world’s second-largest economy in the year 2039, bigger than the US, if its GDP continues to grow at the rate of 8%-9%, says a senior economist.

Former senior advisor and a director at the World Bank, Harinder Kohli, said that India’s average per capita income would jump 22 times from $940 two years ago to $22,000 in 30 years from now, in that scenario. “India’s footprint in the global economy will go to more than 17% in 2039 from less than 2% in 2007,” Mr Kohli said, reports PTI.

But he emphasised that this scenario can become a reality only if the current economic growth momentum is sustained over the next three decades. “It (India becoming the world’s
second-largest economy) could happen if things go well,” he said.

Mr Kohli warned against India getting caught in the “middle-income trap”, similar to the experience of Mexico and Brazil.

This trap was explained as one when countries start stagnating after reaching middle-income levels and don’t grow to advanced country levels.

Countries getting into such traps are unable to compete with low-income, low-wage economies in manufacturing exports and are also unable to compete with advanced economies in high-skill innovations.

Mr Kohli said that when countries reach the middle-income group, they need to do a lot of adjustments, required a very different governance & education system, have to address human resource needs and improve competitiveness, among others.
At that stage, India needs to improve the quality of its workforce and address issues such as inequality in terms of per capita income between different States, and start working on those matters “now itself” as it takes a long time to produce results.

In addition, he said that to meet its growing energy needs, India will have to tap hydro, nuclear and other renewable energy sources in a big way.

Also, India has to understand that it cannot do well economically, if its neighbourhood is not friendly, said Mr Kohli.



Shadi Katyal

7 years ago

It is nice to ears to write and read such articles but one must face the naked truth and reality. Is India ready for it. Look around the lack of infrastructure,power,sanitation,education,transport and one can go on.
Then we have some bleeding hearts groups who fight for environment if you try to build a dam or industry forgetting that whole India is an environmental disaster.Look around garbage piles and cows roaming
along with monkeys.
We have no working ethics but do know strikes and burning and destruction of property. Our unions are for more tools down than work.
We are against industry as we mi9ght have top work.
What has India achieved in 62 years and compare what China did in 10 yrs.
Sorry readers if I sound negative but I dont even see any light in this tunnel.
You canj talk of recent exports but look at imports also. we can talk of GDP but notice the inflation. Statistics can be read for any purpose we wish.
2-3 decades is a long time and as there is internal turmoil along with other problems how will we ever move.
Time to get off our Gandhian and Nehruvian thinking and join the world and learn how with our own boot straps we can lift ourselves but that need courage and self help. We have to think of market economy and leave PSU and Govt rules behind. Time to go for complete liberation of trade.

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