Nifty will turn weak if it closes below 8,540
We had mentioned in Friday’s closing report, Nifty uptrend may continue as long as it manages to stay above 8,355. On Monday the market opened lower and remained in the red for most of session but eventually closed flat.
The barometer 30-scrip sensitive index (Sensex) of the S&P Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) closed down 43.19 points or 0.15% down -- during the day's session.
The index went down by over 140 points during the intra-day trade on the back of worries surrounding the monsoon progress, a likely troubled parliament session, and the upcoming monetary policy review.
"The markets reeled under anxiety about the progress of monsoon, the parliament session which will have key bills like Goods and Services Tax (GST) and land bill coming up for discussion," Anand James, co-head, technical research, Geojit BNP Paribas, told IANS.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon so far has been six percent below its long-term average. However, the IMD has given an optimistic forecast for a better performance during early August.
Monsoon rains are important for agriculture, which is a major sector of the Indian economy.
As a large part of the arable land is rain-fed, not only does a variation in rainfall affects crop production but also rural incomes and inflation.
Even the upcoming monetary policy review, which will decide any cut in key lending rates, will be based on the progress of the monsoon and prevailing data points, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said.
James added: "On the other hand, OPEC's (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) decision to advance its December meeting to discuss the future of oil prices in the backdrop of Iran increasing its exports after the nuclear deal is also causing concern."
However, till now the global oil prices have been in India's favour with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pegging a barrel of crude oil at $49.50 and the Brent index hovering around $57 per barrel.
India is a major net-importer of crude oil with over 70% of its needs met by shipping in the black gold.
During Monday's trade, bank, metal, realty, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and power closed in the red.
However, the S&P BSE oil and gas, healthcare and consumer durables stocks rose in the day's trade.
Major Sensex gainers during Monday's trade were: Hindalco Inds, up 1.91 percent at Rs.109.45; Dr Reddy's Lab, up 1.19% at Rs.3,926.15; Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M), up 1.14% at Rs.1,313.05; Bharti Airtel, up 0.85% at Rs.429.45; and
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), up 0.79% at Rs.2.579.55.
The major Sensex losers were: Tata Motors, down 1.89% at Rs.391.20; Vedanta, down 1.44% at Rs.143.40, State Bank of India (SBI), down 1.37% at Rs.267.35, Hindustan Unilever, down 1.25% at Rs.912.80 and BHEL, down 1.03% at Rs.282.45.
Among the Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei was up by 0.25%, China's Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.91%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was flat.
The top gainers and losers of major indices are given in the table below:
The closing values of Asian indices were: