Morgan Stanley finds that emerging markets (EM) consistently outperformed the MSCI AC World benchmark in 1‐month and 3‐month pre‐election horizons. In India’s case, however, a tight race is predicted and markets could be negative
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited, the research arm of Morgan Stanley, has estimated that the market performance one month prior to the elections could be negative as the Indian election scenario at the moment is “neck-and-neck”, with a chance of a “popular opposition” (read: BJP and allies) winning the elections. It also estimated that market could turn negative as a result.
The graph below shows how the market will pay out one month before the elections. When Indian citizens see the current race as “tight”, markets has given negative returns one month prior to elections.
It sees the incumbent Congress UPA opinion poll rating at lows, thanks to prevalent corruption and lack of measures to tackle against it. The note said, “74 out of 100 corporate leaders favor (Narendra) Modi over Rahul Gandhi” which is based on Nielsen/Economic Times CEO confidence survey. Morgan Stanley said that Modi needs to overcome his polarising record and BJP’s limited geographical appeal.
The current election race and its outcome will have bearings on the Indian stock markets. Morgan Stanley found out emerging markets (EM) consistently outperformed the MSCI AC World benchmark in 1‐month and 3‐month pre‐election horizons. It also noted that 17 out of 25 EM elections since 2000 outperformed world benchmark in 1‐month pre‐election interval. Only in three out of 25 elections (Korea 2007, Mexico 2006, Brazil 2010), both 1‐month and 3‐month pre‐election return missed the world benchmark.
Next year, as many as four EMs will be staging elections: India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa. The below graph shows that relative EM elections with subsequent distinct vote margin have outperformed the world benchmark before elections in all horizons.
India outperformed in the 2009 Congress victory, but marginally underperformed in 2004 Congress surprising comeback. Pre election outperformance in EM is accompanied by high volatility, said Morgan Stanley. The Indian stock market has seen unprecedented volatility in the last 6-12 months, with foreign institutional investors withdrawing from the country in droves.
The chart below shows how the Indian currency performed before and after the 2009 elections. Roughly a year before the election, it depreciated before picking up within 6 months from the 2009 election date. This time too, a similar pattern is being noted. The report said, “Local (EM) currency devalued by 3%‐6% in monthly basis, peaking in the 6‐12 month time horizon before elections.”
When BJP came to power in 1999, Morgan Stanley noted that markets outperformed by one percentage points when compared to emerging market benchmark. Similarly, when Congress was re-elected in 2009, markets outperformed 2.8 percentage points relative to benchmark.
Yesterday, Credit Suisse said that the Indian market is going up due to the ‘Modi’ factor.
The bank’s September ended quarter net profit increased 26%, driven by healthy growth in net interest income
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd, India’s fourth largest private sector bank reported a 26% higher net profit during the second quarter on substantial increase in its net interest income (NII).
For the quarter to end-September, the lender said, its net profit rose Rs353 crore from Rs280 crore while its total revenues grew 13% to Rs2,172 crore from Rs1,923 crore, same period a year ago.
During the second quarter Kotak Mahindra Bank said its NII recorded a 22% growth to Rs924 crore compared with Rs758 crore a year ago period. The bank’s net interest margin (NIM) stood at 4.9%.
Kotak Mahindra Bank’s September ended quarter total loan disbursements increased by 11% at Rs50,609 crore compared with Rs45,443 a year ago period. However, it said they are cautiously slowing down construction equipment and commercial vehicle (CECV) lending, without considering CECV, the growth in advances is at 18%.
Kotak Mahindra Bank said its September quarter total current and saving account deposits grew 25% at Rs15,393 crore compared with Rs12,321 crore a year ago period. However, savings deposits as on 30 September 2013 grew 42% at Rs8,385 crore compared with Rs5,926crore a year ago period. Bank’s current and savings account (CASA) ratio stood at 29%.
Kotak Mahindra Bank’s capital adequacy ratio stood at 18.1% improved by 3% during September quarter 2013 than 15.4% a year ago period and net non performing assets (NNPA) stood at 0.96% from 0.75%, a marginal increase from a year ago period.
Kotak Mahindra Bank crossed 500 branches and 1,000 ATMs during the quarter. As on 30 September 2013 the bank had 502 full-fledged branches across 298 locations and 1,004 ATMs.
On Thursday, Kotak Mahindra Bank closed marginally down at Rs706.45 on the BSE, while the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex ended the day at 20,725.
Somany Ceramics’ net profit fell to Rs6.25 crore even as its total revenues rose 19% during the September quarter
Somany Ceramics, the Noida-based manufacturer of high quality glaze tiles, said its second quarter net profit fell 22% mainly on Rs4.3 crore loss from adverse forex movements.
For the second quarter to end-September, Somany Ceramics, said its net profit fell to Rs6.3 crore from Rs8 crore while its total revenues, including sales, increased 19% to Rs305.6 crore from same period last year.
The company reported Rs4.26 crore hit on account of adverse foreign exchange movement, which affected its net profits. It also incurred other expenses of Rs2.5 crore.
During the quarter, the Board has approved investment of Rs5.11 crore for buying 26% stake in Acer Granito Pvt Ltd. Ace Granito has a facility at Morbi, Gujarat, to produce 2.1 million square meters of polished vitrified tiles every year.
On Thursday, Somany Ceramics closed marginally lower at Rs89.9 on the BSE, while the 30-share benchmark too ended marginally down at 20,725.