Nifty will continue to rally as long as it is above 8,400 on a weekly basis
The S&P BSE Sensex closed the week that ended on 22nd May at 27,958 (up 634 points or 2.31%), while the NSE’s CNX Nifty closed at 8,459 (up 197 points or 2.38%). We had mentioned that Nifty is struggling to rally and for the uptrend to remain, it will have to stay above 8,150. It made higher lows for the entire week, except on Thursday and managed to stay above 8,150 for the entire week. We expect the uptrend to continue subject to dips.
On Monday, the 50-stock Nifty hit its 15-day high and closed near to it. Nifty closed at 8,374 (up 111 points or 1.35%). Data released by the government last Friday showed that India's merchandise exports declined 13.96%, while imports declined 7.48%. The provisional accounts for the year ended 31 March 2015 (2014-15) showed that the fiscal deficit stood at 4% of GDP for 2014-15 as against the target of 4.1%. The Finance Ministry said that the government has managed to better its target for containing the fiscal and revenue deficits in the last financial year. The SBI Monthly Composite Index, a leading indicator for manufacturing activity in the Indian economy, inched up from 46.8 in April 2015 to 53.8 in May 2015.
The 50-stock Nifty, the benchmark, was moving higher on Tuesday but at around 2pm, it lost strength and moved in to red. A struggle to revive made the Nifty close marginally lower. Nifty closed at 8,366 (down 8 points or 0.10%). Rating agency Crisil said expectations from the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government have moderated in its first year, as it was not able to push demand due to the issues it had inherited.
On Wednesday, Nifty moved higher with the RBI governor Raghuram Rajan’s comment that inflation has come down sharply and Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans mentioning in Munich that a hike in US interest rates is not likely to be appropriate until early 2016. Nifty closed at 8,423 (up 58 points or 0.69%).
Next day, Nifty recovered and closed marginally lower after trading in the red for most of the session. Nifty closed Thursday at 8,421 (down 2 points or 0.03%). Oil prices moved higher on the US crude stockpiles report.
The gap up opening on Friday for Nifty was followed by it moving higher till 1.15pm after which it moved lower. However, the 50-stock index managed to close solidly in the green. Nifty closed the week at 8,459 (up 38 points or 0.45%).
The government on Thursday announced that in order to bring clarity on foreign direct investment (FDI) policy rules for overseas Indians, investment by NRIs under Schedule 4 of FEMA (Transfer or Issue of Security by Persons Resident Outside India) Regulations will now be deemed to be domestic investment at par with the investment made by residents.
Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were: