Investing In a Bear Market

I have maintained that the Sensex might bottom out close to 6,200. There have been major peaks in the years 2000 and 2004 and a great decline in 2005. The 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from the 1992 peak of 4,546 to the 1993 trough of 1,980 is at 6,133. This has acted as critical support/resistance during the entire bull run and in the subsequent downtrend as well. Therefore,...

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A New Bubble?

Cheap money, new legislation and a fad can create a green bubble

Interest rates are extremely low in Japan, the UK and the US. In fact, they are the lowest in the UK since the Bank of England was established 315 years ago in 1694. It is such low interest rate that has fuelled bubbles in the past by funnelling money to back a popular idea. In the last two decades, we have had the Japanese...

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Crude Oil

After lying low for quite some time, crude prices are on the rise again. For the first time in 10 weeks, crude was trading above $50 a barrel after hitting a low of $32.40 a barrel in December 2008. This rise in crude prices is being attributed to a recovering economy as well as the weakening dollar which is pushing up the prices of all commodities. According to Barclays Capital, crude prices are rallying because of return to market fundamentals, specifically a focus on global supply and a shift away from the doom and gloom psychology of a recession. At its meeting on 15th March, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to keep oil output at current levels, rather than make another round of cuts to shore up prices. This is being looked upon by many traders as a sign of strength.

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