Economy
India’s growth data continues to confuse, says Nomura

According to Nomura, the sharp upward revision in India’s growth rate is due to a change in the estimation methodology. If the data is correct, then this suggests robust consumption and no need for any policy accommodation

 

Indian growth data continue to confound. Following the revision in annual real GDP growth in FY13 and FY14, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has estimated that real GDP growth is expected to rise an even more robust 7.4% y-o-y (year-on-year) in FY15, from 6.9% y-o-y in FY14. The quarterly data for FY15 were accordingly revised higher by around 1.6% as compared with the old series.  These observations are made in a research note from Nomura.
 
In Q4 2014, real growth rose 7.5% y-o-y, slightly lower than the 8.2% y-o-y in Q3 (Figures 1 and 2), owing to lower agricultural sector growth, which offsets the strong pickup in non-agricultural growth (mainly services).
 
Nomura said, “The sudden jump in growth rates is due to a change in the real GDP growth estimation methodology. Earlier, real GDP growth was estimated as a change in volume, while the new series estimates value added at each stage. Also, the government now uses sales tax, service tax and corporate performance data to estimate quarterly GDP. As a result of these changes, growth in industry (especially manufacturing) and the services sector (financial and real estate and government services) is much stronger in the new series.”
 
“If the numbers are correct, then the GDP data suggest that the economy has been rising at a much faster pace than estimated earlier and that potential growth in the Indian economy is still above 7%. However, the composition of growth is still biased towards consumption, while investment demand remains relatively sluggish, reducing the need for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ease monetary policy,” Nomura argues in the research note.
 
“However,” Nomura said, “high growth does not square with other real activity indicators and the sharp moderation in inflation.” 
 
Nomura’s assessment is that growth bottomed out in 2013-14 and is currently in the initial stages of a business cycle recovery. Based on the new series and the growth uptick indicated by forward-looking indicators, Nomura expects real GDP growth to rise to around 7.5-8.0% y-o-y in FY16.
 

 

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Mayawati's BSP may lose its national party status due to poor show in Delhi

The BSP had urged the EC to postpone a decision on its national party status till the outcome of the Delhi Assembly elections, which turned out to be poor for the Mayawati-led party

 

Barring a few seats, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which fielded candidates in all the 70 constituencies in Delhi, registered a poor show in the Assembly elections.
 
The party, which has been trying hard to maintain its national party status, managed to win below 1,000 votes in most of the constituencies while some of its candidates polled substantial votes.
 
The development may not come as good news to party supremo Mayawati as the Election Commission is set to take a call on its show-cause notice to BSP as to why its national party status should not be withdrawn.
 
In Adarsh Nagar, Ramniwas of BSP managed to get 681 votes while Rajbir secured 815 votes in Ambedkar Nagar. Similarly Mohammad Abdul Haq could muster 754 votes from Babarpur.
 
But the party registered respectable performance in some Delhi seats. In Gokalpur, its candidate Surendra Kumar secured 30,080 votes. In Seema Puri, party candidate Jai Shree secured 3,548 seats.
 
The BSP had urged the EC to postpone a decision on its national party status till the outcome of the Delhi Assembly elections.
 
Following their poor performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, EC had issued show—cause notices to BSP, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Communist Party of India (CPI), asking them why their national party status should not be withdrawn.
 
A political party becomes eligible to be recognised as a national party if it has won 2% of seats in the Lok Sabha (11 seats) from at least three different states in the latest general election.
 
Also, if the party has polled 6% of the total valid votes in Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in at least four states, in addition to winning four Lok Sabha seats.
 

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COMMENTS

Jagatheesan Chandrasekharan

2 years ago

It is a known fact that all the elections are conducted through fraud EVMs which are tamperable.Supreme Court had ordered to replace all the EVMs. But as on now fool proof voting system is not there. last Lok Sabha elections were conducted through fraud EVMs in 543 -8 constituencies. As a result RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapis (BJP) snatched the MASTER KEY by Murderers of democratic institutions (Modi). Until all the fraud EVMs are replaced, all the elections conducted without such replacement must be scraped and fresh elections conducted. Kejrival also told that EVMs could be tampered. May be to avoid embarassement now for a change AAP has won to keep them shut.Therefore non of the political party should lose their status till all the fraud EVMs are replaced and till such time all the elections must be scraped to save democracy, equality, fraternity, and liberty as enshrined in the constitution for peace, welfare and happiness i.e., Sarvajan Hitaye Sarvajan Sukhaye including 99% SC/STs/OBCs/Minorities/poor brahmins, baniyas.

Jagatheesan Chandrasekharan

2 years ago

It is a known fact that all the elections are conducted through fraud EVMs which are tamperable.Supreme Court had ordered to replace all the EVMs. But as on now fool proof voting system is not there. last Lok Sabha elections were conducted through fraud EVMs in 543 -8 constituencies. As a result RSS's Bahuth Jiyadha Paapis (BJP) snatched the MASTER KEY by Murderers of democratic institutions (Modi). Until all the fraud EVMs are replaced, all the elections conducted without such replacement must be scraped and fresh elections conducted. Kejrival also told that EVMs could be tampered. May be to avoid embarassement now for a change AAP has won to keep them shut.Therefore non of the political party should lose their status till all the fraud EVMs are replaced and till such time all the elections must be scraped to save democracy, equality, fraternity, and liberty as enshrined in the constitution for peace, welfare and happiness i.e., Sarvajan Hitaye Sarvajan Sukhaye including 99% SC/STs/OBCs/Minorities/poor brahmins, baniyas.

Can President Sirisena revive India-Sri Lanka trade relations?
During the visit by Sri Lanka’s new President Sirisena, India must ensure that it enjoys the most favoured treatment, by keeping the Chinese dragon, preferred by former President Rajapakse, at bay!
 
Sri Lanka’s newly elected President Maithripala Sirisena is expected to visit India next week. This will be his first foreign visit as President, and he is expected to arrive in New Delhi on 16th February. The exact itinerary has not yet been announced, but at least a day will be set aside by President Sirisena to visit Buddhist sites on a personal pilgrimage.  This visit is considered very significant as he has made it clear that he wishes to start his relations with India on a clean slate, and, in the process, wipe out any misunderstandings that his predecessor, Mahinda Rajapakse had helped to "create".
 
It may be recalled that former President Mahinda Rajapakse had shown clear "tilt" towards China, though, to make amends, he had claimed that "India is a relative, while China is a friend". During his tenure, China made great inroads into Sri Lanka, and was even able to dock in their submarines, much to the discomfort of India. China received a number of projects during his regime.
 
Sri Lanka’s new Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera, who also made his first foreign visit as Minister, reiterated the significance and importance attached to India, and in strengthening and improving bilateral ties with the country, as the relation between the two has been going on for more than 2,500 years.
 
In the meanwhile, even before he arrives in India, next week, for discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Sri Lankan President has ordered a complete review of all Chinese infrastructural project contracts awarded to them under Rajapakse's tenure.  It must be remembered, that Sirisena is scheduled to visit China, sometimes in May this year, for which dates have not been finalized.  It is therefore unclear whether he will visit China before or after PM Modi visits that country!
 
Since Narendra Modi will be reciprocating this visit, sometimes in March, it is hoped that both the leaders will have serious discussions through which India can extend all the needed help and assistance to Sri Lanka in rebuilding the war torn northern parts of that country so as to bring relief to the Tamil minority population that lives there.  There is tremendous scope for Indian involvement in total rebuilding activities in terms of infrastructure, road building, and construction of schools, bridges and assist the local population in setting up various small scale industries. India could supply a full range of steel products, agricultural implements, tractors, and even help in taping water resources in that country.
 
This is an opportunity for India to truly show that it will remain a big brother to Sri Lanka in every possible way and they, in turn, must ensure India enjoys the most favoured treatment, by keeping the Dragon at bay!
 
(AK Ramdas has worked with the Engineering Export Promotion Council of the ministry of commerce. He was also associated with various committees of the Council. His international career took him to places like Beirut, Kuwait and Dubai at a time when these were small trading outposts; and later to the US.)

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COMMENTS

vishal

2 years ago

past is past we should strive to develop our relations with Sri Lanka. Tanils in Sri Lanka are now better compared what it was during the period 1980 to 2009. Pakistan and China has a lot to gain by fomenting trouble for us in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka should understand this and should not spoil their relations with Indians on behalf of Tamils.

Dr Anantha K Ramdas

2 years ago

It is regretable to note the comments offered by the SLNBC. The writer has been associated with Sri Lanka for about thirty years now and not as "naive" as they claim.

By all means, every democratic country would love to visit and set up offices in this beautiful country with wonderful and friendly people. They are very hard working and down to earth, honest. India should do that do in the most competitive way possible.

But all the countries named do not have the same blood relation that India has with Sri Lanka. That, SLNBC, should make a big difference. For reasons known to one and all, unfortunately, the northern Sri Lanka was neglected, and President Sirisena has shown his fairness in uplifting the masses down there. The Tamils in the north, no doubt, are the decendents of Tamil labour that went there to do the plantations due to British, but they are no longer to be treated as "Indian" Tamils, but Sri Lankan Tamil population with all rights and duties. So, let us not go into the history of how, why and what happened in the past. The best is start afresh and rebuild the nation, which is what, I think, President Sirisena wants to do. Please give him a chance.

We have to live in peace, with honour and respect and build our countries, together.

Dr Anantha K Ramdas

2 years ago

It is regretable to note the comments offered by the SLNBC. The writer has been associated with Sri Lanka for about thirty years now and not as "naive" as they claim.

By all means, every democratic country would love to visit and set up offices in this beautiful country with wonderful and friendly people. They are very hard working and down to earth, honest. India should do that do in the most competitive way possible.

But all the countries named do not have the same blood relation that India has with Sri Lanka. That, SLNBC, should make a big difference. For reasons known to one and all, unfortunately, the northern Sri Lanka was neglected, and President Sirisena has shown his fairness in uplifting the masses down there. The Tamils in the north, no doubt, are the decendents of Tamil labour that went there to do the plantations due to British, but they are no longer to be treated as "Indian" Tamils, but Sri Lankan Tamil population with all rights and duties. So, let us not go into the history of how, why and what happened in the past. The best is start afresh and rebuild the nation, which is what, I think, President Sirisena wants to do. Please give him a chance.

We have to live in peace, with honour and respect and build our countries, together.

SLNBC

2 years ago

Sri Lanka will be following Singapore type business, investment and development model and not aligned to any one nation or region. The writer is a bit naive and out of touch about globalization of modern business and finance. China, US, India, Japan, Germany etc can all be equal participants in economic development of region. Several US and Japanese companies are already looking at Sri Lanka as "Regional HQ" to manage business in India and rest of South Asia region.

Sri Lanka National Business Council

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