Economy
India’s consumer story would be one of the world’s most compelling over the next 20 years: Goldman Sachs
With a young, tech-savvy population, improved education and rapid growth, India is creating a consumer market deeply tied into mobility and connectivity. Where spending in neighbours like China is driven by an emerging Urban Middle class, there are great opportunities in India in the much larger Urban Mass, says a report from Goldman Sachs.
 
According to the report, India’s consumer story will be shaped by its 440 million (44 crore) Millennials and 390 million (33.9 crore) Gen Z that are born after 2000. The sheer size of India’s youth combined with improved education pave the way for sustained growth in purchasing power and it makes India’s consumer story one of the world’s most compelling ones for the next 20 years. The nation’s challenge is to create enough jobs to unleash the productivity of India’s talented youth, it says.
 
 
Goldman Sachs says, India’s GDP per capita at $1,650 in 2015 is comparable to China in 2005. However, in the coming decade, India’s consumer story will be led by its 130 million (13 crore) urban mass consumers. This marks a different path from China, which was predominantly an urban middle formation story during 2002-2012.
 
According to the report, India’s Urban Middle cohort is small. It says, "We estimate that the workforce that falls into the urban middle ($11,000 annual income) stands at 27 million (2.7 crore), or 2% of population. It will expand, but investors need to be careful in calibrating the potential addressable market for companies targeting this cohort."
 
 
In India, brand investing will be a big theme in everything, Goldman Sachs says, cautioning about the value-for-money consumers in the country. "We believe that India’s urban mass will trade up into brands which offer the most incremental value, but may not readily jump to aspirational brands. In purchasing a car, for example, India consumer’s first criterion is the brand’s reputation for fuel efficiency," it added.
 
According to the report, best categories positioned for profit pool expansion include packaged snacks, baby products, premium personal care, scooters, SUVs and jewellery. But one profit pool that may grow faster than them all is restaurants, it says.
 
Mobile connectivity and ecommerce are two segments where India will leapfrog the most, Goldman Sachs feels. It says, "Payment system and supply chain challenges remain but are not insurmountable. Improved mobile connectivity will also challenge the domination of TV as a primary source of household entertainment over time, creating a bigger profit pool for content providers and mobile gaming."
 
According to the report, growth of luxury and high end in general will be limited over the next 20 years. Culturally, India’s affluent consumers tend to shy away from ostentatious display of wealth. One area where Indians do splurge on is weddings. The number of weddings and household formations will increase over the next five years, given India’s demographics, peak birth reached 22-23 years ago, it added. 
 
For India, lack of housing affordability remains a key challenge, Goldman Sachs says.  "Urban mass households find it very difficult to get a mortgage unless both spouses work. Affordability has been further stretched by loan rates and inflation in basic commodities, where were particularly high between FY11-14. Urban middle class earns around $14,000 per year on average with the typical age of buying at 35-40 years. The average buying price is around $120,000 thus requiring around 8.5 years of annual salary for buying the house. With 20% of households having two working members, the affordability is more within reach to the urban middle," it added.

 

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COMMENTS

manoharlalsharma

12 months ago

Title is so attractive let his hope be fulfilled

Shivam Bose

12 months ago

Can I get a link to the above mentioned report ?

JOBBY KUNJACHEN

12 months ago

Incase GDP growth in coming years will be jobless growth, how will millennial earn to consume? The only way such consumption if any, can be funded is via debt.

Jyotin Mehta

12 months ago

Excellent insights...

Jyoti Dua

12 months ago

A useful analysis for Start -Up and those looking to commence or expand their business. Good report for policy makers too.

Nifty, Sensex still range-bound – Wednesday closing report
We had mentioned in Tuesday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex were set to move sideways. The major indices of the Indian stock markets were tightly range-bound on Wednesday and closed with small gains over Tuesday’s close. NSE trading volumes were also lower. The trends of the major indices in the course of Wednesday’s trading are given in the table below:
 
 
Initially on Wednesday, the key indices opened on a higher note, following the release of healthy domestic macro-economic data. Major domestic macro-economic data points like the fourth quarter GDP (gross domestic product), fiscal deficit and eight core industries (ECI) were released on Tuesday. The GDP data showed that the Indian economy expanded by 7.6% in 2015-16 to log the fastest growth among larger countries. Besides, India's core industrial output data, ECI edged up by 8.5% in April on the back of higher production of electricity, steel and refinery products.
 
Despite the positive opening, the key indices ceded some of their initial gains on the back of sluggish Asian markets and lower close of the US stocks on Tuesday. The US indices had closed lower on the back of disappointing consumer confidence data which stroked growth concerns in the world's largest economy. The US data also cast a doubt over the US economy's ability to withstand a speculated interest rate hike in June. In addition, lower crude oil prices, a weak rupee and profit booking dented investors' risk taking appetite. However, lower level value buying supported prices. Among the major indices, the Bank Nifty lost 1.12% over Tuesday’s close to close at 17,423.45.
 
Leading SUV car maker Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M) on Wednesday said it has sold 40,656 units during May, up 11% from 36,706 units sold in the corresponding month last year. In May, sales of passenger vehicles which include SUVs, cars and vans grew 8 per cent at 19,635 as against 18,135 units sold in May 2015. Its domestic sales stood at 36,316 units in the last month, up 10% from 33,369 units sold in the year-ago month. The company sold 501 units of medium and heavy commercial vehicles in the month under review. Exports for May stood at 4,043 units -- a growth of 21%. M & M shares closed at Rs1,334.95, up 0.77% on the BSE.
 
Automobile manufacturer Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) on Wednesday reported a growth of 10.4% in its domestic sales for last month. According to the company, its domestic sales in the month under review rose to 41,351 units from 37,450 units sold during May 2015. The automobile manufacturer credited the sales growth on the healthy off-take of its brands like brands Creta, Elite i20 and Grand i10.  “Hyundai volumes grew by 10.4% with sales of 41,351 units continuing the build-up of positive growth momentum on the strengths of strong performance of the three Indian Car of the Year brands Creta, Elite i20 and Grand i10," Rakesh Srivastava, Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing, HMIL was quoted as saying in a statement. Srivastava added that the positive growth momentum was supported by heightened expectations of increase in demand on the predictions of good monsoon. S & P BSE Auto index closed at 19,247.16, down 0.60% on the BSE.
 
The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
 
The closing values of the major Asian indices are given in the table below:
 
 
 

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Stock Market fully valued, says Kotak Securities
With the Nifty-50 trading at 18 times of FY2017 estimated earnings per share (EPS) and 15 times of FY2018 estimated EPS, the valuations of the Indian market are full unless earnings surprise positively, says Kotak Institutional Equities Research in a note.
 
"A 15-17 times multiple on FY2018E ‘EPS’ will lead to a Nifty-50 fair value of 8,200-9,300. We find parts of the market (cement, consumer staples, industrials and media) very expensive even on FY2018E EPS. We project FY2017 and FY2018 net profits of the Nifty-50 Index to grow at 16.8% and 20.5%, certainly not conservative or for that matter, certain. We like the top-down story but struggle to find value in several sectors. We remove some of the ‘star’ performers from our Model Portfolio given their strong run in the past few weeks," it said in a research report.
 
 
According to Kotak, domestic certainty and global uncertainty are both unsettling. It says, "On the domestic front, we see consumption-led economic recovery in FY2017 due to likely good monsoons and seventh pay commission-related payouts. However, FY2018’s growth will depend on private investment, which still looks challenged. The government has partly built the basic framework for investment and governance. However, the market’s ‘certainty’ about economic and earnings recovery is a bit worrisome. The Street has not exactly distinguished itself on earnings estimates in the past two years. Also, India’s macroeconomic parameters barring growth are unlikely to improve further." 
 
"On the global front, economic news out of China and the US will shape central banks’ policies, not that there is consensus on how the markets will react to those policies. A US Fed rate increase over the next three months looks likely but should be manageable since it will reflect a stronger US recovery. The unpredictable issue is the extent of China’s economic travails and bad debt challenges," it added.
 
Kotak says there are some risks to its FY2017 estimated earnings despite decent fourth quarter results. "We see moderate downside risks to our current FY2017E net profits of the Nifty-50 Index (+16.8%), with the strong growth reflecting the decimated base of FY2016. We see risks to our estimates of the banking sector (non-performing loan-NPL and loan loss provisions-LLP estimates are still quite fluid) and infrastructure sectors such as cement and industrials. We currently expect FY2018E net profits of the BSE-30 Index and Nifty-50 Index to grow 20.7% and 20.5%," it said.
 
 
During the fourth quarter, adjusted net profits of the BSE-30 Index and Nifty-50 Index grew 7.5% and 2.3%. Kotak says, "We note that 4QFY15 had set a low base as profits had declined 10.9% and 9.4%. Public sector unit (PSU) banks disappointed the most once again and were joined by pharmaceuticals. The 4QFY16 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of BSE-30 Index and Nifty-50 Index rose 14.5 % and 13.7% (1.9% and 2.6% ahead of our estimates, a positive sign). FY2016 net profits increased 2% for the BSE-30 Index and were flat for the Nifty-50 Index."
 
The report mentions that banks have put several corporate loan accounts on their internal ‘watch-lists’ and are monitoring the accounts for potential slippages. "Thus," it says, "we are not sure if the NPL issue is firmly behind us. We suspect slippages may remain high for another two quarters, albeit at lower levels compared to second half of FY2016 levels, and banks’ NPLs will peak out by second quarter of FY2017."
 

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