Indian stocks to open weak: Wednesday Market Preview

The slowdown in developed nations and weak domestic data has kept investor sentiment low

Indian stocks are likely to see a gap-down opening as nations try to grapple with economic issues. With most domestic banks hiking their interest rates following the Reserve Bank of India’s steep in its key rates late last month, corporates are going slow on their expansion plans.

On the global front, despite the US Senate approving a deal to raise the debt ceiling to avert a debt default Wall Street closed down overnight on lower-than-expected consumer data for June. Investors are seen opting for commodities like gold as a safe haven bet, pushing the precious metal by 2% on Tuesday to another all-time high. Asian markets were in the red in early trade on Wednesday as economic concerns overshadowed the last-minute US debt deal. Fresh concerns in Europe also weighed on the sentiments. The SGX Nifty was 85.50 points down at 5,382 compared to its previous close of 5,467.50.

On Monday, we had mentioned that a one-day rise shouldn't be taken as the end of the decline. Yesterday, the Nifty lost 60 points, which is the maximum the benchmark has lost in a single day over the past five trading sessions. And both the Sensex and the Nifty closed at their lowest level in the last 28 days as the market fell on negative news across the globe.

For the indices to see some strength, it would require some real positive changes in the fundamentals. We can expect the Nifty to show a rising trend if it closes above 5,570 in the coming days.

Earlier, the market opened lower on concerns over the slowdown in domestic growth, following mixed announcements yesterday. The Nifty resumed trade at 5,493, down 24 points, and the Sensex opened 30 points lower at 18,284. While the Sensex opening level was its high for the day, the Nifty's 5,496 immediately after the opening was its high point.

The indices were range-bound in subsequent trade and a lower opening on key European bourses pushed the market further southwards in afternoon trade. The market fell to its intra-day low in the post-noon session, as the Nifty touched 5,434 and the Sensex struggled at 18,038.

The market made a half-hearted attempt to recover, but selling pressure saw the indices close in the red. The Nifty closed 60 points lower at 5,457 and the Sensex lost 204 points to close at 18,110.
Markets in the US fell on Tuesday despite president Barack Obama signing into law a bill that raises the nation’s debt ceiling and cuts the budget deficit by at least $2.1 trillion over the next decade. Investors are now turning their attention on the nation’s economic growth.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday consumer spending slipped 0.2% in June, the first drop since September 2009, after edging up 0.1% in May. Also, data showed that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment fell in July to the weakest since March 2009.

The Dow tumbled 265.87 points (2.19%) to 11,866.62. It was the blue-chip index's eighth consecutive decline marks its longest losing streak since October 2008. The S&P 500 fell 32.89 points (2.56%) to 1,254.05, marking its seventh straight loss.  The Nasdaq declined 75.37 points (2.75%) to 2,669.24, its biggest percentage drop since last August.

Gold jumped 2.6% on Tuesday, its biggest gain since early November just after the US Federal Reserve launched a second round of government debt purchases, or quantitative easing.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as more weak U.S. economic data fuelled concerns about a fall in demand. US September crude fell $1.10 to settle at $93.79 a barrel, the weakest close since 28th June. ICE Brent crude for September fell 35 cents to settle at $116.46 a barrel, having traded from $115.53 to $118.40.

Markets in Asia were down in early trade on Tuesday as economic concerns took centre-stage. Weak consumer data from the US put pressure on export-driven economies in the region. Fresh concerns about the debt crisis in Europe also weighed on investors.

The Shanghai Composite declined 0.91%, the Hang Seng tumbled 2.37%, the KLSE Composite declined 0.85%, the Nikkei 225 plunged 2.21%, the Straits Times sank 1.70%, the Seoul Composite tanked 2.75% and the Taiwan Weighted was 1.97% lower.

Back home, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) is likely to launch futures contracts on benchmark US indices—S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)—in the near future, a senior exchange official said yesterday.

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Bank employees to strike work on Friday against privatisation

United Forum of Bank Unions announces strike as conciliation talks fail. Protest will involve employees of all public and private banks

About 10 lakh employees of public sector, private sector, foreign, co-operative and rural banks will go on strike on 5th August to protest against a range of issues from privatisation of nationalised banks, disinvestment in public sector banks and mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector, to the outsourcing of routine activities.

The strike has been called by the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU), an umbrella organisation of nine bank unions, after conciliation talks at the office of the chief labour commissioner failed today. There will be another round of talks on Wednesday. ATMs could also be affected, bringing all banking activities across the country to a complete halt.

“We are opposing banking sector reforms. This is not for bank employees alone, but for the sake of the country,” Ravindra Shetty, convener, UFBU, said at a news conference in Mumbai today.

The issues are listed in a 21-point charter that was drafted at an all-India convention in the national capital in May. The issues of all sections of bank employees and officers, even retired employees, are contained in the charter. 

The strike action appears to have been prompted by the plan of the government to table bills in the current session of parliament to amend the Banking Regulations Act and Banking Companies (Acquisition and Transfer of Undertakings) Act.

“Through these amendments, banks will be exempted from competition and any merger of banks will become easier for the government,” Mr Shetty said. The charter of issues has been put before the Indian Banks Association (IBA).

Mr Shetty criticised the government’s move to allow private investors (corporates) to invest more than 5% in private sector banks, saying, “There is a move to remove the 10% cap of voting rights in private sector banks. They are giving the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) sweeping powers to supersede the codes of banks and appoint administrators to run the banking industry.”

He said UFBU is opposed to such reforms and would struggle to protect and strengthen public sector banks. The union are demanding the expansion of public sector banks into villages, in line with the announcement the finance minister made in the Union Budget.

Mr Shetty referred to the fact that Indian banks had withstood the global financial crisis of 2008. He said that even the government had acknowledged that Indian banks were able to tide over the crisis because of “our public character”, and today the same government was looking to change the character of the banking industry.

The unions have also opposed the outsourcing and contractualisation of permanent bank jobs. While they had agreed to certain specialised IT-related being outsourced, they say that the government was trying to bring in various non-core jobs into the ambit of outsourcing. “The government wants to bring in business correspondents and facilitators that will take away the jobs of citizens who are seeking employment in banks,” Mr Shetty said.

He also referred to the attempt by the government to implement some clauses of the Khandelwal Committee report through the backdoor

Urging the government to revive the banking services recruitment board, as nearly five lakh employees will retire in the next five years, Milind Nadkarni, president of the National Confederation of Bank Employees, said, “Banks are going for clerical recruitment to campuses. We object to this as every boy and girl with the minimum required qualification should be allowed to apply for recruitment.”

Lalita Joshi, joint secetary of the All India Bank Employees Association, said that the families of many employees who have passed away were struggling in these days of high inflation and many of them were in a poor condition, but no effort had been made to employ any of the family members on compassionate grounds.

Mr Shetty hoped that the government would lend a more sympathetic ear to these issues and not push the unions into an indefinite strike.

 

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COMMENTS

shalini

6 years ago

From an eight month old banker's eyes:

The future of nationalized banks are in crises.Leave all other concerns, the toughest challenge banks are and would be facing in near future is Staff shortage.

When it comes to a life of a banker,the situation still is grim and sad.

Most of the Officers have no-social and no-family life.

The situation has not changed even a bit in all these years and they expect the young crowd to join and stay.

According to my experience frankly no one cares because nobody in particular is accountable.Five Lac employees would be retiring in next five years ( Including all the Executives, Directors, top management). Their only concern is to generate as much as profit possible during their tenure and then they retire for a gala life.

Bank jobs are one of the most infamous jobs among the young considering uncongenial work environment, No-accountability, No transparency, No ethical compliance, No employee protection etc the list goes on.

Resulting, the new breed to either leave with dissatisfaction striving for greener pastures or turn him into a zombie with no social no family life.

The Foundation of any organization is its human resource and the banks have done their best to torment and harass their beloved employees.

In nut shell this strike means to us for we hold no future here.


P.S: Count me in for greener pastures, I Hate to be a zombie.

pantulu

6 years ago

Any number of cases involving private Financial insstitutions swallowing public money saved mostly by ordinary people does not open the eyes of our Government. If private banks are efficient where was the necessity to take over former Global Trust Bank by the Govt? Everyone knows that after takeover the Bank now known as Oriental Bank of Commerce is making handsome profits. Private banking even in a better country like US has failed. We have to learn lessons from such examples. There is no need for experimentation.

B V Vijaya BE CIS

6 years ago

Though it is not very appropriate at the moment I remember the proverb “Each dog has a day”
The aim of strike appears to be good. But in reality think of the account holders. Though the banks say they have computerized, is it to the depth it required?
Employees say they are burdened OR have more work to do: The work or results of scheduled banks are not comparable with that of Pvt. Banks.
To day for every service banks charge hefty fee which was free of cost in the recent past years. The additional income helps them to show profit in the balance sheet.
Curtsey, except here & there, is not seen in the banks..
If money is remitted in a different city of a scheduled bank, it is charged.
For DD’s Pvt. Banks do not charge.
In the last 10 to 15yrs PAN has become popular among people. This is an unique No. for an individual. A bank A/c could be developed to have PAN & a set of 5 or 6 alpha numerals combo No. which covers the Name of bank, Branch & the individual identity of customer. ADHAR No. could be used as alternate to PAN
Similarly to-day electronic transfer of money is practiced. Instead of having IFSC, NEFT, RTGS only one No. could be used to reduce work. Even MICR No. be eliminated.
There are many such elements.

Bank employees were pampered to such an extent that even in advertisements for a groom it used to be mentioned that only Bank / LIC employees can respond

Even today a common challan for depositing money / for DD Or such common transaction is not prepared. Each bank has its own challan. Malpractices in bank loans & vested interests in dealing individual cases etc. have put the status to this level today. Many people are averse about the dealing / working atmosphere in the banks.
One may find the subject & my script may differ to some extent. But after all we are human beings. Think of the matter in different perspectives.
There is a proposal now to convert 1,50,000 post offices to bank branches in India.
One more thing we are selecting MP’s what we deserve without voting on election day.
Lobhying has become the order of the day.

People are also fed up about the behaviour & the type of responses when some one visits the bank.
This rationalization eliminates frauds too, apart from becoming more customer or user friendly

Chitta Ranjan Bhattacharjee

6 years ago

It is the real talk privatisation of psu bank in India is never viable to all.

Share prices move on expected lines: Tuesday Closing Report

Nifty should close above 5,570 to show some strength

Yesterday, we had mentioned that a one-day rise shouldn't be taken as the end of the decline. Today, the Nifty lost 60 points, which is the maximum the benchmark has lost in a single day over the past five trading sessions. And both the Sensex and the Nifty closed at their lowest level in the last 28 days as the market fell on negative news across the globe.

For the indices to see some strength, it would require some real positive changes in the fundamentals. We can expect the Nifty to show a rising trend if it closes above 5,570 in the coming days.

The market opened lower on concerns over the slowdown in domestic growth, following mixed announcements yesterday. The Nifty resumed trade at 5,493, down 24 points, and the Sensex opened 30 points lower at 18,284.

Banking, realty, metals and auto stocks declined in early trade. While the Sensex opening level was its high for the day, the Nifty's 5,496 immediately after the opening was its high point.

News that the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council has lowered its growth forecast for the current fiscal; July factory output data which was the lowest in 20 months; and sharply lower auto sales by key auto majors in July, all weighed on the market. Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee today tried to contain the damage, saying that 8.2% GDP growth projection was "not disappointing".

The indices were range-bound in subsequent trade and a lower opening on key European bourses pushed the market further southwards in afternoon trade. The market fell to its intra-day low in the post-noon session, as the Nifty touched 5,434 and the Sensex struggled at 18,038.

The market made a half-hearted attempt to recover, but selling pressure saw the indices close in the red. The Nifty closed 60 points lower at 5,457 and the Sensex lost 204 points to close at 18,110.

The advance-decline ratio on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) was a poor 395:1330.

Among the broader indices, the BSE Mid-cap index declined 1.53% and the BSE Small-cap index fell by 1.45%.

BSE Oil & Gas (up 0.34%) and BSE Healthcare (up 0.16%) were the only gainers in the sectoral space. The losers were led by BSE Realty (down 2.09%), BSE Metal (down 1.83%), BSE Bankex (down 1.71%), BSE TECk (down 1.70%) and BSE IT (down 1.50%).

Cipla (up 2.23%), NTPC (up 2.12%), ONGC (up 0.88%), RIL (up 0.51%) and Hero Honda (up 0.42%) were the top gainers on the Sensex. On the other hand, Jaiprakash Associates (down 5.08%), Reliance Communications (down 3.46%), State Bank of India (down 2.88%), Sterlite Industries (down 2.41%) and Wipro (down 2.37%) ended at the bottom of the index.

The toppers in the Nifty index were NTPC (up 2.63%), Cipla (up 2.31%), ONGC (up 1.32%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 0.95%) and Hero Honda (up 0.93%). The main losers on the index were JP Associates (down 5.01%), RCom (down 3.75%), Reliance Capital (down 3.14%), Sesa Goa (down 2.96%), and IDFC (down 2.79%).

Markets in Asia settled lower as lower-than-expected manufacturing data from China and the US raised the possibility of slowing global demand. The strengthening yen set off speculation that Japanese authorities would intervene in the currency markets.

The Shanghai Composite declined 0.91%, the Hang Seng lost 1.07%, the Jakarta Composite shed 0.37%, the KLSE Composite ended lower by 0.20%, the Nikkei 225 dropped by 1.21%, the Straits Times fell by 1.19%, the Seoul Composite plunged 2.35% and the Taiwan Weighted declined 1.34%.

Back home, foreign institutional investors were net buyers of stocks worth Rs86.83 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors were net sellers of equities worth Rs95.26 crore.

The KG-D6 fields of Reliance Industries produced 31% less than previously projected natural gas output in the April-June quarter. The average gas production during April-June 2011, from KG-DWN-98/3 (KG-D6) block, was 48.60 million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) which is less than the approved field development plan (FDP) rate of 70.39 mmscmd. The stock gained 0.81% on the NSE to close at Rs837.55.

Bajaj Auto's total sales in July rose 14% year-on-year to 3,63,712 units, the highest for the month of July in many years, on strong sales in the domestic as well as export markets. The company sold 3,18,095 motorcycles in July, up 14% from a year ago. Commercial vehicle sales rose 18% year-on-year to 45,617 units and exports grew 35% to 1,43,996 units. The stock declined 0.42% at Rs1,480.10 on the NSE.

Wind energy major Indowind Energy said it is planning to set up 28MW wind farms at investment of Rs120 crore, taking its total capacity to 71.92MW by March 2012. The company will fund the expansion through money which was raised through GDRs and $25 million loan from Exim Bank. The scrip declined 3.79% to close at Rs16.50 on the NSE.

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