Domestic demand for the yellow metal in the second quarter of 2011 constituted 32% of global demand for gold (combined with jewellery and investments) and was at 248.30 tonnes
According to the latest World Gold Council report, India was the strongest growth market in the second quarter of 2011, with total consumer demand for gold rising 38% in tonnes compared to the second quarter of 2010. In value terms, demand for gold increased from Rs31,730 crore in the second quarter of 2010 to Rs53,800 crore in the second quarter of 2011—an increase of 70%. Indian gold demand in the second quarter of 2011 constituted 32% of global demand for gold (combined with jewellery and investments) and was at 248.30 tonnes.
According to the Gold Demand Trends report released by the World Gold Council, jewellery demand surged to 139.80 tonnes, a 17.1% increase from Q2 2010 boosted by the festive season and the widespread expectation among Indian consumers about a further increase in the price of gold. In value terms, jewellery accounted for Rs30,290 crore in Q2 2011—an increase of 44% as compared to Q2 2010. Investment demand comprising demand for bars and coins as well as ETFs (exchange-traded funds) accounted for 108.50 tonnes in Q2 2011, a 78% increase on Q2 2010. In value terms investments totalled to Rs23,510 crore in Q2 2011, an increase of 119% as compared to Q2 2010.
While the fluctuations in gold prices in India has reduced to a great extent, this has in- turn reinforced the investment in gold and customers are now encouraged to make purchases in gold instead of deferring them for the future. According to Ajay Mitra, managing director, Middle East and India, World Gold Council, "The second quarter of 2011 has been excellent for investments in gold around the world, especially in India. With inflation reaching record numbers and there being extreme volatility in the equity markets, investments in gold continues to prove popular as investors look to diversify their portfolios and protect their wealth."
Gold's strong start to the year was reinforced during the second quarter of 2011 where total global gold demand measured 919.80 tonnes, worth a near-record $44.50bn, with broad-based support across all sectors and geographies. Standout markets were India and China, as these two markets accounted for 52% of total bar and coin investment and 55% of global jewellery demand. Marcus Grubb, Managing Director, Investment, World Gold Council, said in a statement: "The strength of demand in India and China, coupled with an overall drop in recycling activity this quarter, demonstrates that consumers have adjusted to the current price environment and expect the upward price trend to continue. In addition, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, the continued sovereign debt crisis and widespread inflationary pressures, will result in gold demand remaining strong."
Global gold demand in the second half of 2011 will remain strong due to a number of key factors—despite higher gold prices, Indian and Chinese demand grew 38% and 25% respectively, during Q2 2011, compared to the same period of 2010. This growth is likely to continue, due to increasing levels of economic prosperity, high levels of inflation and forthcoming key gold purchasing festivals. The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis, the downgrading of US debt, inflationary pressures and the still-fragile outlook for economic growth in the West are all likely to drive high levels of investment demand for the foreseeable future. Central banks are likely to remain net purchasers of gold. Purchases of 69.40 tonnes during Q2 2011 demonstrated that central banks are continuing to turn to gold to diversify their reserves.
"I hope the monetary policy adopted by the Reserve Bank of India, along with various measures taken by the (finance) ministry, will have a moderating influence on the inflationary front," finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said
New Delhi: Terming the over 9% food inflation as 'not acceptable', finance minister Pranab Mukherjee today expressed hope that government policies and a good monsoon will help ease pressure on price front, reports PTI.
"... Food inflation at the level of 9% is not acceptable. I do hope the measures taken to remove supply constraints in some of the agricultural commodities and good monsoon will help to have further moderating influence on the prices of food and other essential commodities," he told reporters here.
His comments came after food inflation fell to 9.03% for the week ended 6th August from 9.90% in the previous week, even though prices of all items, barring pulses, continued to rise on an annual basis.
He said despite food inflation falling from around 22% in February 2010, it still remains high.
Mr Mukherjee said the international situation was not conducive, especially with regard to high commodity prices.
"International situation is not very favourable.
Commodity prices are high, including of fuel. Therefore, the prices of industrial raw material, other commodities and fuels are uncertain," he said.
He said the government is trying to ensure that the rate of inflation moderates.
"I hope the monetary policy adopted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), along with various measures taken by the (finance) ministry...
It will be possible to have a moderating influence on the inflationary front," Mr Mukherjee said.
The government has taken various steps to curb the rate of price rise in food items, including a reduction of import duties on wheat, rice and pulses, a ban on the export of non-basmati rice and the suspension of futures trading in rice, urad and tur dal.
In addition, the government has extended the stock limit orders for pulses, paddy and rice and reduced import duty on skimmed milk powder, among other measures.
The RBI has hiked interest rates 11 times since March 2010, to curb inflation. Headline inflation has been above the 9% mark since December last year and stood at 9.22% in July this year.
The fall in food inflation numbers could be attributed to a moderation in the rate of price rise of some of the items on a week-on-week basis, even though they continued to be more expensive on an annual basis.
The decline could also be attributed to the high inflation figure of over 14% for the corresponding year-ago period, a phenomenon dubbed the 'high base effect' in economic parlance.
As per data released by government today, price of pulses became cheaper by 5.63% year-on-year during the week under review. However, all other items continued to remain expensive.
Overall, primary articles recorded 11.64% inflation for the week ended 6th August, down from 12.22% in the previous week.
However, inflation in non-food articles, which include fibres, oil seeds and minerals, went up to 16.07% from 15.05% in the previous week.
Meanwhile, fuel and power inflation stood at 13.13% for the week ended 6th August, up from 12.19% in the week ended 30th July.
It is the middle class which is the most visible in the progress of this present movement. The invisible others, who have the strings in their hands, are getting increasingly frustrated
One of the big questions doing the rounds with many of the ruling political and perception management classes in Delhi, as well as with a certain set of largely Anglophile pretenders, is—"how did we, or our in-house intelligence agencies—get it so wrong?" Certainly, there are honourable exceptions, two that I know of—Dilip Cherian, for one (who strangely enough does not seem to have been consulted by the Congress, although he handled their election campaign), and the abrasive Arnab Goswami for another. Both of them had their fingers on the pulse of the Nation, and declared it in advance, getting it right against the flow on various public forums.
But most of the rest, including limousine liberals and elite media channels, were and are still largely sneering at matters. Till Anna Hazare pulled literally out of his Gandhi topi this most amazing series of checks and counter-checks leading to the eventual checkmate so brilliantly portrayed in a series of body language changes on the part of the ruling coteries related to the Tihar Jail episode. If there was anything that said it all, it was the way Ambika Soni looked soon after she came on television, at a point when the channels knew that Anna Hazare had refused to come out of jail—but apparently she didn't. Brave lady, at least she came in front of the camera—the rest simply vanished.
However, semantics aside, the big question is—how did so many people who are supposed to be in the know of things, get this simple equation, staring everybody else in the face in the country, wrong? To try and answer that, a much longer article or maybe even a book or three on how information and intelligence is sourced might help. For now, briefly, some of the tried and tested methods do not seem to be working, in both fields—media and intelligence.
What works, then? There are different methods for different people. For me, I find that not carrying a huge camera or pad and pen, and engaging people in conversation as another fellow traveller, seems to work much better now. People talk for cameras, period, so better not to carry a big one. And marrying that to intelligence obtained from trade sources, people who would normally never interact with media, but do because of other alignments. Which is what I have been doing over the past few days in Delhi.
Some aspects, not brought out elsewhere, but relevant all the same, that emerged were:
1) The one group of people who have come out smelling of roses in this whole episode are the rank-and-file ground-level frontline staff from Delhi Police. The same people who were used in the Baba Ramdev fiasco, have been a totally different group when dealing with Anna Hazare's people, since they have seen themselves being used in this episode also. Talking with some of them, I found out, for example, that they had put the word out to all the petty criminals—pickpockets, bag-snatchers, and similar—to stay away from the Anna Hazare crowds. One reason, as explained to me, was that "Madam Bedi kee izzat ka sawaal hai" (The honour of Ms Kiran Bedi is at stake). The other was that they, too, are simply fed up of the way the country is being looted.
2) Here it is important to point out that there is a vast number of Delhi Police staff who are on PSO (Personal Security Officer) duties, or on deputation to other security agencies engaged in the protection of VVIPs. It is their role to try and be invisible, and as is often the case, those who they are supposed to protect often disregard their presence when they talk. This gets around in the barracks, eventually, and as a result nothing is a secret. While this was tolerated in the past to some extent, the loot has reached such high proportions, that even they cannot simply let their consciences go deaf, dumb and blind on these matters.
3) International events have not come to a halt just because of the fracas in India. If anything, in a world that is in more ways than one going rapidly in new directions mostly downhill, a certain amount of glee and satisfaction can be expected from those who would benefit from a weakening India. Bets are being laid that the success story hype around India, so often used as a ploy along with the development card, will have fully reversed itself in as little as three years from now. In other words, we shall, if we do not look out, be a country dependant as much on the neo-colonial supremacists as we might be on the oil sheikhs. Again.
4) Another not so small detail has to do with the continued absence of Sonia Gandhi and her family, the real possibility of legal Presidential sanction for taking forward Subramaniam Swamy's case on wealth held abroad by the Gandhi family, and the information that Julian Assange of WikiLeaks is apparently busy all over again reportedly negotiating with a variety of suitors on the purported information held by him about Indian origin money held in tax havens abroad. As a friend in the power broking business commented—the Pay Commission and the 'get work done' line of commerce is currently suspended.
5) Much is being said about "protecting democracy" lately, whatever that means, most of all by people who would gladly shut down all democratic options if possible. This is especially true in Delhi, where a vast legion of rent-seekers can see their income streams being disrupted. To quote once again from Amitav Ghosh's River of Smoke: "Democracy is a wonderful thing. It is a marvellous tamasha that keeps the common people busy so that men like ourselves can take care of all matters of importance. I hope one day India will also be able to enjoy these advantages." (Page 404, Indian edition).
If anything, the ongoing spectacle surrounding Anna Hazare and friends in India simply proves, once again, that the chances of us missing the important issues of daylight robbery from India, may get lost once again in the "marvellous tamasha" of democracy. While it is the middle class which is the most visible in the progress of this present movement, it is actually the invisible others who have the strings in their hands, and they are getting increasingly frustrated.
In the words of a very important spin doctor from Delhi on his Facebook pages —something's got to give. In Delhi tonight, after a day on the road when the most popular story was about how difficult it is now to court arrest, that's the mood. Enough is enough is the sentiment as expressed towards the politicians. Whether the same sentiment, with increased ferocity, will be swung against the movement itself if it does not deliver something tangible fast, is the real worry. The inertia is there, and the spin doctors have always been good at making small course corrections, enough to swing the same inertia against those who set it in motion in the first case.
In brief—there is now a real fear that this movement will, if those behind it are not careful, be hijacked and used against them. And the stakes, globally, are high enough for ample resources to be provided to willing hands. There are enough advance warning signals to show that the strategy to ensure that the Anna Hazare movement implodes into itself is already underway. And the touchstone as well as barometer for this statement, as always, is in reading between the lines—on the ground.