Economy
India needs radical change, here and now!

We desperately need to put in place a government that will govern by taking tough steps without fearing or favouring any ally or opposition all in overall national interest

 

Communism and socialistic systems crashed after glasnost and perestroika in the Eastern Bloc. The state-administered bail-outs and stressed assets are the outcome following the crushing collapses in the Wall Street in the heart of capitalism—Uncle Sam’s United States of America. It also brought about the peoples’ movements of Occupy Wall Street across the US, which rapidly spread to the Eurozone with the PIGS—Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain—going belly up and pulling down economies of England, Germany and France. In the Middle East, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen have seen regime changes. Some time back Indonesia, Thailand in the Far East and Argentina and Mexico in Latin America went into traumatic crisis situations.

We, in India, were able to withstand the crisis situations initially because of an insulated rupee and fairly strong fundamentals thanks to an astute Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor who refused to institute full convertibility of the rupee. Our bludgeoning domestic middle-class market absorbing all that is produced or imported, booming stock market and good monsoons went into the phases of Shining India of high growth rate.

There was an unexpected fall of gross domestic product (GDP) growth down to 5.3% in Q3 of 2011-12 from 9.2% of the same period of the previous year, pulling down the rate of annual growth to 6.5%, the lowest in nine years—an alarming situation. The poor showing of the economic parameters has forced the analysts and raters to take a grim view. In March Standard and Poor’s (S&P) found that the weak asset quality and earnings across the Indian banking sector with credit growth was predicted to fall to 16% from the earlier 23%.

Continuous imports and withdrawal of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) has led to balance of payment (BOP) problem. Unless the government reins in the fiscal deficit, India’s inflationary bubble will burst leading to the downgrading of India’s sovereign debt. All this is but a cumulative effect of past inactions. In 2007-08 the GoI overspent its income by one-third by financing over one-fifth of its expenditure through borrowings in 2011-12, the borrowings coming from two-third of its total earnings and one-third of its total expenditure with fiscal deficit crossing 68% of its revenue leaving very little for investment in growth oriented projects. According to a FICCI study the plunging of the GDP from 9% to 6% has robbed 30 million jobs that would otherwise have been created—13 million young people of working age without providing any opening for their livelihood.

The economy can only be put on track by doing what it takes by injecting into it more vigour to make up for the  lost time. The GoI’s strange weak defences by attributing all too global downturn, domestic coalition compulsions are mere hog wash that no longer stump the aam admi.

The entire nation knows and the outside world too knows that it is the present government’s gross mismanagement of the economic affairs and massive corruption that is primarily responsible for the sordid state of affairs.

Yes, the Western meltdown is bound to have a cascading effect on India in the days to come because of shrinking overseas investments, fall in export offtake and their declining realizations and inward remittances.

Today it is the inertia at the top policy making, be it in exports of commodities or food products, lethargy and irregularities in dealing with issues of auction of scarce resources including coal and spectrum, FDI, reforms in banking, insurance, pension, investment in infrastructure, roads, rail and transport, petroleum pricing. They are all self-inflicted maladies of serious neglect. Like headless chickens the government is now running around in search of water to douse the fire when the fire of inflation is raging madly with food prices shooting over 100% in the last few months.

The other lame excuse is not taking policy decisions because of Election code of conduct. Today there is a statement to the effect that decisions on certain critical issues are held up because of the presidential elections! It is not the presidential election per se, but fearing and favours of parties to garner support that is tying the government in knots. There are either parliamentary or assembly elections all through the year which should under no circumstances come in the way of taking vital economic decisions. 

The latest straw on the camel’s back is the virtual stoppage of any economic decision making at the bureaucrat-babu level at Delhi because of the proposed elevation of the current finance minister to the country’s presidency and the consequential cabinet reshuffle.

The president had to back out of major misdemeanours of taking her entire extended family on her international junkets and aborting the construction of a mansion on defence land and close relatives charged with criminal activities. The former chief justice of India is under the scanner. The Parliament is dysfunctional, spending much less time on legislating and more on cross shouting. It is apparent that no segment our society is clean! All the more the need for urgent changes.

It is high time we give a fresh mandate to a new dispensation that will pull the country out of mess that is created by the UPA-2. Even if it means a national government not necessarily all elected. After all, the US Cabinet members are not elected.

We desperately need to put in place a government that will govern by taking tough steps without fearing or favouring any ally or opposition all in overall national interest.

After all we are fundamentally strong economy, with a vibrant stock market, a banking system that is far better and capitally adequate than prevailing in the West, robust manufacturing and service sector. We are blessed with the best of human intellect, a growing middle-class that makes do without much exports and above all adequate natural resources. Sadly lacking unfortunately is the will to get going.

This brings me to some really radical demands; please bring in another long-sighted Interim 2012 Budget substantially raising the taxes on the super rich by bringing in the tax net on their untaxed agricultural, dividend and capital gains incomes. Also to tax their financial wealth with limited exemptions of one self-occupied residence.  Bring back gift tax and estate duty which is going great guns all over the West. Reasonably high thresholds need to be introduced for all.

Re-roll the Railway Budget, even if it means another Rail Mantri after serious bashes, to bring in greater safety and security for the rail travellers. Had this been done we would not have witnessed the Hampi and Dehra Dun crashes, we still keep our fingers crossed no more?

Reuters has just put out a new US Internal Revenue Service data containing startling revelations of six rich families paying no federal income taxes in 2009 though reporting of average incomes $202.4 million each.(http://link.reuters.com/vec68s). Another six paid no tax and another 110 just 15% or less. Overall 400 paid an average of federal income tax at the rate of 19.9%, the same rate paid by a single worker earning just $61,500 per annum. “The top 400 earned five times that much every day.  Just 82 of the top 400 were taxed in accord with the Buffet Rule proposing a minimum tax of 30% on incomes greater than $1 million. This report covers only the 400 highest income reported in their tax returns and not the 400 highest actual incomes which are much more. By what economic, political or moral standard should the working stiffs be forced to pay their taxes immediately, while plutocrats pay by-and-by? Any why should anyone who makes more than $200 million live tax free... these are hard facts about the zero-to-low tax burdens of the richest Americans promoting a class war.” 

Today, all that is said of the US is more aptly applicable to our Indian conditions where we have more and more crorepatis, the local  equivalents of billionaires or Ultra-High Worth Individuals, with high-end swanky residences, with in-house jacuzzis, gyms, swimming pools and helipads on terraces, limos, private planes, yachts, farm and beach houses. They itch to figure in Forbes’ lists of billionaires and yet pay no or extremely low taxes while millions of their folks die of starvation and malnutrition, heavy debts and no toilets (our Planning Commission spends Rs35 lakh on ‘repairing’ just two toilets!)  Yet they are unable to justify the per capita average income of Rs28 per day that is equivalent to US 50 cents.

The old order has to change, here and now, enough is enough!

(Nagesh Kini is a Mumbai based chartered accountant turned activist.)

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India sees 3rd highest rise in home prices in Jan-March quarter

According to the Knight Frank Global House Price Index India witnessed third highest rise in housing prices while Brazil was at the top with 23.5% growth

New Delhi: India witnessed the third highest rise of 12% globally in housing prices in January- March quarter of 2012 over the year-ago period, according to consultant Knight Frank, reports PTI.

 

Housing prices, in India however, declined by 0.9% when compared with the previous quarter.

 

“Brazil recorded the strongest annual growth (23.5%) and Ireland the weakest (minus 16.3%),” it said.

 

The Knight Frank Global House Price Index monitors and compares the performance of 53 mainstream residential markets across the world.

 

Austria ranked fourth with 11% rise in housing prices, followed by Germany (9.8%), Colombia (9.6%), Turkey (8.7%), Russia (8.2%), Iceland (7.3%) and Canada (6.8%).

 

In China, the prices have declined by 2.2%.

 

“The Chinese housing market has had a tough 12 months as developers and purchasers alike have had bank finance squeezed as a consequence of the ongoing cooling measures. Lending restrictions, new taxes, the curbing of multiple property purchases, and new regulations to restrict the inward flow of hot foreign money have had the desired effect," Knight Frank's director of research in Asia Pacific Nicholas Holt said.

 

The report further said that during the first quarter of 2012, the housing prices fell in 58% of the countries monitored by the index.

 

Knight Frank's report noted that the Global House Price Index recorded its weakest annual performance since the depths of the recession in 2009, recording only 0.9% growth in the year to March 2012.

 

“Doubts over the Eurozone's future, along with the Asian governments’ staunch efforts to cool their markets and deter speculative investment, have taken their toll,” it explained.

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IIFL launches new dividend opportunities fund

The new scheme aims to provide returns to investors by investing in 50 high-dividend yielding stocks

Mumbai: IIFL Mutual Fund, a subsidiary of India Infoline, launched an open-ended fund called IIFL Dividend Opportunities Index Fund, reports PTI.

The objective of the scheme is to provide returns to investors by investing in 50 high-dividend yielding stocks, IIFL AMC chief executive Gopinath Natarajan told reporters.

The minimum subscription amount for the scheme, which opens 6th June and closes on 19th June, is Rs5,000. The fund will also offer monthly and quarterly investment plans.

The fund house will be investing in the stocks across 25 diversified sectors, comprising large and mid-cap stocks, he said.

“The scheme is good for those who aim to reap benefits from high-dividend yields, cash-flow generating companies, which share their profits by way of dividends. The scheme is not only suited for investors looking at tactical allocation but also to those looking at potential long-term gains,” Mr Natarajan said.

The fund offers two options -- growth and dividend -- as well as a speciality facility of systematic investment plan.

“There is no entry load, while an exit load of 1% will be charged for exit before one year from the date of allotment. The units of the scheme are available in the demat mode also,” he added.

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COMMENTS

Ravindra

5 years ago

There is lot of air. However what is required is GAS.

anantha ramdas

5 years ago

Mukesh Ambani's idea of buy-back is profitable for those who got the shares at the face value of Rs 10. But if the dividend is 100% every year, why should anyone sell back to the company even at 70 times the original investment? If one did this, where will he go for reinvestment that can get him/her a similar return? Besides the scope and prospects for the company to grow further are great.

One thing that Mukesh can do; he did this earlier, by not taking the bonus shares given by the company to all the shareholders. Likewise, he can simply say "enough is enough" and volunteer to sell whatever is the balance of the shares that were unavailable for purchase from the shareholders by surrendering his holdings? How'zzzthat?

subra

5 years ago

sure many things are wrong, but the cash on hand has to be true. He can always buy Future Group (13k crore) on his way to 50k crore. Not willing to buy the share as yet, but looks like a good investment with a 4-5 year perspective, though my broker says NO.

Ratanlal Purohit

5 years ago

I DONT UNDERSTAND HOW TO MANIPULATE MARKET. I DONT UNDERSTAND HOW TO BECOME SUPER RICH WITH OTHERS STAKE. I AM NO STAKE HOLDER UN RIL.
MUKESH IS. HIS FATHER WAS.
HOW HIS BALLON IS STILL NOT DEFLATED HE ONLY KNOWS. BUT ONE THING IS SURE HE KNOWS GREASE. THE GREED FEEDS HIS BUSINESS. NATIONAL WEALTH IS WHAT HE PLAYS WITH APLOMB. GREASE KEEPS HIS JUGGERNAUT MOVING WITHOT FRICTION SMOOTHLY.
WHAT HE TELLS AND WHAT HE DOESNT IS HIS BUSINESS. THE BUY BACK IS CBD. CONFIDENCE IN BUSINESS BUILDING MEASURE. ITS VERY PURPOSE IS ACHIEVED. NO DISTRESS SALES. BALOON HAS TO BE KEPT HIGH FLYING FOR NOBODY TO PUNCTURE IT LIKE SOAP BUBBLE.
MUKESH AMBANI YOU ARE HIGH AND MIGHTY. YOU ARE GOING GREAT GUNS.
KEEP IT UP.
I MEAN THE BUBBLE.

Anil Agashe

5 years ago

If buy back has not succeeded it must be because shareholders are not willing to sell their shares and believe that future value is going to be better. Mukesh can't do anything about his.
If he is planning to increase retail turn over what is wrong? RIL can sustain the loss the same way as ITC is doing on FMCG.
Oil and gas clearances must come thorough quickly, it is in the interest of nation. Why is it not flowing from ONGC and GCPL? GCPL actually claimed their reserves are more than RIL. Look at what Modi has said at the time of discovery.
There may be many things wrong with RIL, but there are some good things as well.

SANarayan

5 years ago

On the gas front, RIL is looking for price increase from GOI. The moment that is given, production of gas will zoom!

REPLY

telsmon

In Reply to SANarayan 5 years ago

YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. GAS PRICE WILL COME FOR REVISION IN 2014, TILL THAT TIME HE WILL NOT PRODUCE GAS. MUKESH IS A VERY GOOD MERCHANT, HE KNOWS HOW TO GET GOOD PRICE FOR HIS PRODUCE MILKING EVERYONE ON THE WAY, PEOPLE OR GOVT.

SANarayan

In Reply to telsmon 5 years ago

RIL's proposal tp GOI for integrated development of all offshore fields to boost gas production is only a ruse to recover, as production cost, which gets accounted upfront, what he may not get as price increase for gas before 2014.

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