Economy
India market outlook depends on demand, earnings: Moody's
Mumbai : The markets outlook for India this year is contingent on consumption demands, corporate earnings and inflation trends, American ratings agency Moody's said on Monday.
 
"India enters 2016 on the cusp of a cyclical growth recovery, with inflation under control and the economy benefiting from lower commodity prices," Moody's associate managing director Atsi Sheth said in a note.
 
"Market trends will depend on whether inflation remains under control and corporate profits revive," she said.
 
Citing a projection of a boost in demand post-implementation of the recommended pay revision for central government employees and pensioners, and a potential upturn in agriculture, Moody's said a broad-based pick-up in investment will only unfold with a timelag.
 
"We believe that these advantages will only yield sustainable growth acceleration once corporate and bank balance sheets are repaired, and if the private sector remains internationally competitive," Sheth said.
 
She said inflation and corporate profit trends will offer clues as to whether these efforts have created conditions for growth that are sustainable over the next 3-4 years.
 
Sheth's report also said low inflation may indicate a greater balance between domestic demand and supply conditions, and would help private sector remain globally competitive.
 
Consumer price-indexed (CPI) -- or retail -- inflation rose in October to 5 percent, which was a four-month high. Inflation, in September, was at 4.41 percent.
 
Though wholesale inflation has been in the negative for the last 13 months, the rate has been rising for three months in succession and was minus 1.99 percent in November.
 
The government's total outlay for paying salaries to its staff will rise by Rs.102,000 crore, which, if the Seventh Pay Commission recommendations are accepted in totality, will put pressure on its fiscal deficit control efforts.
 
Rabi crop output has been lower than expected, while prices of pulses have been rising, which are bound to put pressure on food inflation.
 
The Reserve Bank of India recently lowered its growth forecast for the country's current fiscal to 7.4 percent, from the 7.6 percent it had projected earlier.
 
The CPI inflation has moderated to 5 percent in October 2015 compared to 5.4 percent in February 2015. Similarly, the WPI has been in the negative territory since November 2014 and was pegged in October 2015 at minus 3.8 percent
 
Disclaimer: Information, facts or opinions expressed in this news article are presented as sourced from IANS and do not reflect views of Moneylife and hence Moneylife is not responsible or liable for the same. As a source and news provider, IANS is responsible for accuracy, completeness, suitability and validity of any information in this article.

 

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Nifty, Sensex decline may end soon – Monday closing report
If Nifty holds above 7,500, it may head higher over the next few days
 
We had mentioned in Friday’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex may record a minor bounce and that Nifty has to close above 7,670 for the first sign of a bullish trend. The major indices of the Indian stock markets went back to the bearish trends of last week and the indices closed with losses of 0.44%-0.78% over Friday’s close. The trends of the major indices in Monday’s trading are given in the table below:
Negative global trends, coupled with the upcoming third-quarter results and macro-economic data, depressed Indian equity markets on Monday. This resulted in the 30-scrip sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) to provisionally close the day's choppy trade session down 109 points. Initially, both the bellwether indices opened on a negative note in sync with their Asian peers and last week's massive falls. Other Asian markets were deep in the red after Chinese stocks receded by 5%. However, the bellwether indices pared their losses as investors were attracted by a sizeable number of stocks that were trading at their yearly lows. Apart from value buying, short covering amidst thin volumes led the morning relief rally. However, markets soon resumed correction. In addition, investors were hopeful for a better third quarter (Q3) results by India Inc on the back of an economic recovery and low commodity prices. The Q3 earnings results will start coming out from Tuesday. However, the gains were soon capped by the long-liquidation positions and Friday's US-based data which showed a strengthening jobs market. The data hinted at a potential future rate hike.  Another rate hike by the US Fed will lead more FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) away from emerging markets such as India, denting the equity and currency markets. Besides, caution prevailed over the upcoming domestic macro-data on industrial output, and retail inflation. Both the data points are slated to be released on Tuesday. The choppy trade session again led to value buying, but gains were soon ceded due to prevailing negative bias.
 
In a boost to the power sector, state-run power generator NTPC plans to set up a 4,000 MW plant at Puttaparthi in Andhra Pradesh as well as a 2,250 MW solar power plant in the state, Power Minister Piyush Goyal said on Monday. "The progress of Andhra Pradesh is evident from the fact that this newly formed state could overcome a huge power crisis and become a power surplus state today," Goyal said, making the announcement here at the Confederation of Indian Industry's annual partnership summit. He also said the central government will work closely with the Andhra Pradesh government to handle security issues and counter terrorism. "The world needs to come together to develop policies and securities to counter terrorism," he said. Later speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the event, the minister said the government will be releasing in the next couple of months bids for 3-4 ultra-mega power projects (UMPP) that are in the 4,000 MW class. Goyal also said he was hopeful of rolling out a coal linkage policy for the power sector within three months. Meanwhile, an Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham)-CRISIL joint study said on Monday that about 46,000 MW of power projects are at high risk, owing to lack of "strong sponsor company support".
 
In a significant relief for Reliance Power's 3,960-MW Sasan project, the regulator has approved an annual hike of 9 paise or 7% in tariff over its entire 25-year contract period, that translates into an extra compensation of Rs300 crore per annum. The approval, based on what is called a change in law petition filed by the Reliance Group, has been awarded by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission to Sasan Ultra Mega Power Project, set up in the Singrauli district of Madhya Pradesh. "A one-time compensation of Rs271 crore is also granted by regulatory commission till 31 July 2015," the company said in a statement, adding the regulator's directive also eases the way for future pass-through of compensation for the power project. Reliance Power has a large largest portfolio of power projects in the private sector, based on coal, gas, hydro and renewable energy, with an operating capacity of 5,945 MW. In April last year, the Anil Ambani-led Reliance Group had announced that it had fully attained commercial operations of the Rs27,000-crore Sasan ultra mega power project, 12 months ahead of schedule, with all the six units generating 3,960 MW of electricity. 
 
The government on Monday announced the buyback of its inflation indexed bonds (IIBs) linked to the wholesale price index (WPI). The government will repurchase "1.44% Inflation Indexed Government Stock-2023" through reverse auction for an aggregate amount of Rs6,500 crore (face value)," a finance ministry statement said. "The repurchase of the government stocks is purely ad hoc in nature. Auction for securities will be on price-based auction format. The auctions will be conducted using multiple price method," the statement said.  The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted the consumer price index (CPI) as the key measure of inflation in April 2014, while WPI-based securities have not been reissued since then. Though WPI-based inflation has been in the negative for the last 13 months, the rate has been rising for three months in succession and was minus 1.99% in November 2015. As per market data, IIBs worth Rs6,500 crore have been issued since 2013, while major holders of the WPI-linked inflation bonds include mutual funds like ICICI Prudential, HDFC, SBI, Kotak Mahindra, Reliance and Deutsche. Bids for the auction should be submitted in electronic format on the RBI's Core Banking Solution (E-Kuber) system on January 12 between 10.30 a.m. and 12.00 noon. The result of the auctions will be announced on the same day, the statement said.
 
The top gainers and top losers of the major indices are given in the table below:
 
 
The closing values of major Asian indices are given below:
 

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Temple can't prohibit entry of women devotees: SC
New Delhi : The Supreme Court on Monday said that unless a temple had a constitutional right, it could not prohibit the entry of the women pilgrims to offer worship.
 
A bench of Justice Dipak Misra, Justice Pinaki Chandra Ghose and Justice N.V. Ramana said this in the course of the hearing of a petition by the Indian Young Lawyers Association challenging the Sabrimala Ayyappan Temple's custom of prohibiting the entry of women devotees between the age of 10 years and 50 years.
 
Directing that it would examine the challenge to the custom prohibiting the entry of women of this age group, the court observed that a "temple can't prohibit entry except on the basis of religion. Unless you have constitutional right you can't prohibit the entry".
 
The court directed the next hearing of the matter on February 8.
 
Disclaimer: Information, facts or opinions expressed in this news article are presented as sourced from IANS and do not reflect views of Moneylife and hence Moneylife is not responsible or liable for the same. As a source and news provider, IANS is responsible for accuracy, completeness, suitability and validity of any information in this article.

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