India manufacturing PMI inches up to 51.6 in October

HSBC India PMI rebounded to 51.6 in October from September’s nine-month low of 51.0, driven by strong demand conditions and rise in new order flows


India’s manufacturing sector output picked up modestly during October, driven by strong demand conditions and rise in new order flows, an HSBC survey said Monday.


The headline HSBC India Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — a composite gauge designed to give a single-figure snapshot of manufacturing business conditions — rebounded from September’s nine-month low of 51.0 to 51.6 in October.


Amid reports of strong demand, production at Indian manufacturers rose for the 12th successive month in October. A figure above 50 indicates that the sector is expanding, while a figure below that level means contraction.


“Manufacturing activity picked up modestly amid stronger output and new order flows, particularly from overseas clients,” HSBC Co-Head of Asian Economic Research Frederic Neumann said.


New businesses also increased for the 12th month in a row in October, largely owing to general improvements in demand situation.


In addition, export orders received by Indian manufacturers rose in October, extending the current sequence of growth to 13 months.


However, firms continued to trim purchases and refrained from aggressive inventory accumulation, the report said.


On prices, it said that inflationary pressures remained muted in October. While input prices eased further, the improvement in growth allowed firms to raise margins by increasing the output prices slightly.


“This trend could strengthen with growth, which is why the RBI will remain cautious about relaxing its grip at this juncture,” Neumann said.


In the September policy review, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Dr Raghuram Rajan had left all key rates unchanged citing continued risks to inflation and difficult external situation, especially on the geopolitical front. This was the fourth consecutive time that the RBI kept key interest rates unaltered.


The short-term lending (repo) rate remained at 8%, and the cash reserve requirement of banks at 4%.


QNet: EOW tightens rope around agents, meeting places

After applying the stringent MPID Act in the QNet case, the EOW has arrested a top leader for conducting a training session for the MLM scheme. The Mumbai police has even asked Cafe Coffee Day-CCD to shut its doors to representatives of the controversial MLM operator and all its associate companies


The Economic Offences Wing (EOW) of the Mumbai Police is tightening the rope around QNet, the controversial multi-level marketing (MLM), its exclusive franchisee Vihaan Direct Selling (India) Pvt Ltd, QNet Ltd (Hong Kong), Transview Enterprises India Pvt Ltd and Vanamala Hotels, Travels & Tourism Services Pvt Ltd and all its agents. The EOW also arrested Tarun Ratnani, a top leader from QNet, while he was conducting a training session at Andheri in Mumbai on Sunday.
Earlier, following directions from the EOW, popular coffee shop chain Cafe Coffee Day (CCD) has banned representatives of QNet, Vihaan and all its associate companies from operating from its coffee shops. A notice pasted by CCD at all its outlets in Mumbai, reads: "As per instructions received from Economic Offence Wing- Crime branch, Mumbai and Additional Police Commission of EOW Mumbai, entry is prohibited for representatives, staff and employees of Vihaan Direct Selling, QNet, Transview Enterprises and Vanamala Hotels, Travels & Tourism Services. NOTE: We are not associated with the above mentioned in anyway." Coffee shops such as CCD and Barista have been regular haunts for the hardsell of QNet schemes and, in what seemed to be a tacit understanding with the staff, they were allowed to hang around for hours without placing any order.
According to a report from Mumbai Mirror, Ratnani, who has been associated with the company for the last three years, was caught red-handed by the EOW team while holding a training session for dozens of people at a hall in Andheri. According to EOW officials, on Sunday the workshop was being conducted at Kentstar Hall, near Fun Republic multiplex in Andheri. Ratnani, along with around 70 people, had assembled in the hall at 10am for the training workshop. The owner of the hall told the newspaper that the premises were being regularly used since August, and so far six workshops were conducted on weekdays as well as weekends.
Quoting an official from EOW, the report says, Ratnani was found involved with QNet for past three years and had collected profits worth Rs50 crore. Ratnani's BMW is also seized by the police.
Last week, the EOW booked 19 accused including Michael Ferreira, the former world champion of billiards and five companies related with QNet, under the Maharashtra Protection of Interest of Depositors (MPID) Act. This means all the cases against QNet, Vihaan and all those involved in the MLM scam would be heard before the special MPID Court. Until now, the accused were being investigated for cheating and forgery under the Prize, Chits and Money Circulation Schemes (Banning) Act 1978, and for money laundering by the Enforcement Directorate (ED).
Commenting on the EOW move, Zaheer Merchant, legal head and director of corporate affairs at QNET, in a statement said, “It is really unfortunate that the police have chosen to take this drastic step despite the fact that QNet and its India franchisee Vihaan have been fully cooperating with the investigation. We will challenge this legally to protect QNet, its employees and customers’ interests.”
Ferreira, the former world billions champion, has been under the EOW scanner following the exposure of the QNet MLM scam. Ferreira owns 80% stake in Vihaan Direct Selling that handles QNet's MLM operations in India since 14 April 2012.

In August 2014, the EOW while making a sensational disclosure has told the Sessions Court that a document submitted by the seven QNet leaders in their anticipatory bail application was bogus and concocted.

According to EOW, the team leaders of QNet, including former world billiards champion Ferreira, Srinavas Rao Vanka, Magarlal Viravali Balaji, Malcolm Nozer Desai, Navjyot Mahesh Das, Chinar Surendra Shinde and Mereilla Kamal Dutta have misled the Court by submitting a fake document while seeking bail. This is in connection with various charges made by the intrepid whistleblower Gurpreet Singh.

The EOW of Mumbai Police, which is probing the MLM fraud, had so far arrested 19 team leaders of QNet for allegedly duping investors by offering to sell products such as magnetic disks, herbal products and holiday schemes through fraudulent practices. The accused have been charged with cheating and forgery under relevant sections of the Prize, Chits and Money Circulation Schemes (Banning) Act 1978.

Another interesting aspect in the whole episode is all top officials (?) of QNet India do not want to reveal their identity and remain hidden. We repeatedly sent emails to the company's official PR agency and also some officials from its parent QI group. Till date, neither the MLM company nor its PR agency is ready to reveal identity of its top management or leaders in India.




1 month ago


Ever since you lost your hard earned money in QNET SCAM, you all have multiple questions and facing multiple issues like :

1. Where and whom to approach for recovering your hard earned money?

2. How to help fight and stop this QNET SCAM?

3. How to teach your CHEATER UPLINES a lesson?

4. Issues regarding the “so called” “REFUND POLICY”.

5. Are you eligible for “Compensations”?

6. Issues regarding action buy police authorities.

7. What is the status of the court cases etc.

These are an example of just a few issues and concerns you are facing, but there is GOOD NEWS for you all. We have been working overtime to try and bring an end to these woes and issues faced by Victims of Financial Frauds like this QNETSCAM.

So guys and girls tomorrow is the BIG DAY finally , Please do join us tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon at 1.30 PM sharp at Andheri east, outside Sarangi Restaurant (Just 1 minute from the Andheri station on the east side).

Please do come and also inform other victims of the QNETSCAM.
Tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon sharp 1.30 PM, outside Sarangi Restaurant , Andheri-east, Mumbai.

Please note we have limited seats, first come first served basis make sure to reach in time __/\__ . You can contact on 7498063701 in case of difficulty in locating us :)

Jai Hind.

jitu moni

1 month ago
Four persons, who were associated with Hong Kong-based QNET, a multi-level marketing (MLM) company, and duped 200 persons by promising them jobs, were arrested by Central Crime Station (CCS) officials on Thursday. However, the MD and directors of QNET and its sister company Vihaan Direct Selling are still at large.

Deputy commissioner of police (CCS) Avinash Mohanty said Sreenath Konda, Prasanna Kumar Reddy, V Kanchana, B Dhan Raj were arrested from different locations in the city for cheating people.

Police said the accused had been enrolling gullible people as agents by collecting Rs 10 lakh from a group of 10 persons.

Each person would be given status of promoter, direct them to attract a group (i.e., 10 persons) and make them join QNET by paying Rs 10 lakh, for which the promoter would be assured commission.

jitu moni

1 month ago
Four persons, who were associated with Hong Kong-based QNET, a multi-level marketing (MLM) company, and duped 200 persons by promising them jobs, were arrested by Central Crime Station (CCS) officials on Thursday. However, the MD and directors of QNET and its sister company Vihaan Direct Selling are still at large.

Deputy commissioner of police (CCS) Avinash Mohanty said Sreenath Konda, Prasanna Kumar Reddy, V Kanchana, B Dhan Raj were arrested from different locations in the city for cheating people.

Police said the accused had been enrolling gullible people as agents by collecting Rs 10 lakh from a group of 10 persons.

Each person would be given status of promoter, direct them to attract a group (i.e., 10 persons) and make them join QNET by paying Rs 10 lakh, for which the promoter would be assured commission.

jitu moni

2 months ago
Mumbai: The Supreme Court on Thursday directed the Maharashtra Government to file the latest status report regarding investigation so far on the anticipatory bail plea of World Billiards champion Michael Ferreira and four others, who are facing charges of money laundering in the multi-crore QNet case.

The next hearing in the matter will take place on September 14.

Besides Ferreira, the others whose anticipatory bail plea were rejected were Malcom Desai, Vanka Srinivas, Maganlal Balaji, all directors of M/s Vihaan Direct Selling (India) Pvt. Ltd, and Suresh Themiri, director of Transview Enterprises.
They are facing charges under Sections 420 (mischief), 468 (forgery), 471 (using forged document knowing it is not genuine) of the Indian Penal Code (IPC).

Justice Mridula Bhatkar of the Bombay High Court, who took on record the statement of public prosecutor Pradeep Gharat that investigations were still on, had in May rejected their anticipatory bail pleas.

Ferreira had started the operations of QNet, a multi-level marketing company, in India via his firm Vihaan Enteprises.

The QNet cheating case began with a complaint by Gurpreet Singh Anand, who raised his voice after losing Rs. 30,000.

According to the police, the money involved has crossed Rs. 1,000 crores in the alleged scam with more than five lakh investors allegedly losing their money in the case against QNet which is being probed by the Economic Offences Wing.

jitu moni

3 months ago
NewsAmbit, New Delhi
Delhi Police Economic Offence Wing(EOW) has registered an FIR against QNET India/Vihaan Direct selling India Private Limited and its three independent representatives on the allegations of cheating and fraudulently operating the multi level marketing, which is illegal in India. Police have initiated the investigation and suspecting huge scam, which is estimated in crores.
A senior Police officer of EOW said that we received a combined complaint against QNET India and its three independent representatives from more than dozen of people in the month of March this year. As per the allegations of main complainant Anuj Jain alleged that his friend Himashu Aggarwal approached him for an business opportunity. He said that he is an independent representative(IR) of an e-commerce based company. He said that he can arrange an meeting with the other IR’s who will tell you about the business and if they find you suitable you will get chance to be a part of the company. After few days Himanshu called Anuj Jain to come with a CV at a café situated in Nehru Place area on 29 November 2015. Anuj reached there, where he met with Himanshu and his to associates Anita Jaggi and Kanika. Trio told him about the business profile and also assured that this is not a networking marketing company. They demanded Rs 6.5 lakh to be a member of the company. They also said that company has millions of customers. IR of the company is treated as a partner and also got the profit share for each sale. After three four days Anuj gave them 6.5 lakh rupees but after some time he got to know that this is a multi level marketing company and fraudulently cheating innocent persons by roping them in it’s banned business with the help of IRs.
Police said that Anuj is not the only complainant so many more complainants also approached to EOW. After which a preliminary enquiry had conducted. It was found that some persons who are termed as IR contact their friends and close persons to join a new e-commerce business. They don’t tell the name of the company or complete business module at the beginning. After alluring them they set various amounts from the victim. Independent Representatives(IR) get training during the joining and talk to make further members. These kinds of IRs of the company are operated from different cafes and food courts situated in Delhi and NCR.
Those who join the company get user id etc and products like ravel packages, some other items etc are shown purchase from their money. The delivery address given in the portal is also found of overseas area most of the time and mostly that address is too fake type location only which shows that no products are being sold and it is a completely a money circulation scheme. Two websites were found involved in the namely and were found mated to Vihaan Direct selling (India) Pvt ltd which is stated Indian Franchisee of Hong Kong based net company. Investigations are on. Police are trying to unearth the whole network of the IRs on which this company is running its business unlawfully in Delhi. A case has been registered u/s 420/120B/34 IPC and 4/5/6 of Prize Chits and money circulation Schemes(Banning) Act,1978 .

Profiles of IRs
Himashu works with Samsung
Anita Jaggi works with RBS


4 months ago

After receiving the complaint from a group of people, the central crime station is now investigating the scam.
Company officials asked them to pay around Rs 1 lakh as charges for registration, investment and training fee. (Representational image)
Company officials asked them to pay around Rs 1 lakh as charges for registration, investment and training fee. (Representational image)
Hyderabad: A new multi-level marketing scam (MLM) has surfaced in Hyderabad with around a 100 victims losing money in the controversial QNet scheme.

Several people have come out alleging that they have lost lakhs in the dubious scheme and has demanded arrest of the managers, who have fled with crores.
After receiving the complaint from a group of people, the central crime station is now investigating the scam. The Singapore-based QNet Private Ltd had already run into trouble with the law in Bengaluru and Mumbai police due to the same scam.

The victims, mostly fresh graduates and college dropouts, alleged that they were lured by some people claiming to be company officials who offered them a high salary and commission to do ‘e-commerce’ for QNet products.

Company officials asked them to pay around Rs 1 lakh as charges for registration, investment and training fee. However, the QNet officials neither provided them any job nor gave back their money even after a year.

After several complaints poured into S.R. Nagar police station cops found out that a QNet office was operating in Ameerpet, where most of the victims had paid their money. An FIR was registered in S.R. Nagar police station against company officials and later it was transferred to CCS.

“A person named Ramesh Kurmetti and his associates run the firm. He and others had been avoiding us for the last one year whenever we asked our money back,” said P. Vishwa Teja, one of the victims from Ameerpet.

The youngsters came to know about the company through Facebook and by word of mouth. “We were told that we will be getting around Rs 30,000 as salary as we add more customers and agents into the scheme. They asked us to get trained and promised that we would be selling their products like Bio Disc, Bio Light etc. However, nothing of that sort has happened so far,” said another victim M. Avinash.

Many people have paid Rs 2 to Rs 3 lakh while some paid Rs 1 lakh. The company officials had promised their commission would be higher according to the investment they put in.

While it is yet to be calculated how much money has been looted by the company officials victims claim that it would be around Rs 5 to Rs 8 crore.
Meanwhile, the police has not made any arrest so far in the case.

“We had registered a case after taking the complaint. Since it was an economic offence with a lot of money involved the case was transferred to CCS,” said S.R. Nagar inspector Md. Waheeduddin.

jitu moni

5 months ago

jitu moni
24 minutes ago
Bluru QNet agent who earned 50L a yr as commission held
Mumbai: The Economic Offences Wing (EOW) has arrested Ram Singh, an accused in the Rs 1,000 crore QNet case, for earning Rs 50 lakh or more as commission each year from proceeds of the crime.

Singh, a Bengaluru resident, was arrested last week after the imigration authorities at Bangalore airport detained him over a look out circular notice (LOC) issued by the Mumbai police. "We are going through all his bank account details and trying to ascertain the source of money to his account," said DCP Pravin Padwal of the EOW.

Singh's name had cropped up during the initial investigation in 2013 but the police could not locate him then. In January 2015, a police team visited his Bengaluru residence but did not find him there. The house was locked. He is the 19th accused to be arrested in this case so far.

"We are working to arrest all the culprits in this case. A special investigation team has been formed to nab the othe accused invovled," said Dhananjay Kamalakar, joint police commissioner, EOW. Singh, said police sources, has been sending money to his daughter who is studying in Canada. "We have to know his source of income. He has sent a major chunk of money to Canada. We suspect this money was gained from QNet. Moreover, he was looking after the QNet business in Dubai and has been shuttling between Dubai and India. We got his passport number late. Soon after getting it, we issued an LOC notice and he was detained," said an officer.

A special MPIDA court in February this year rejected the anticipatory bail plea of Michael Ferreira (77) winner of the World Amateur Billiards Championship and a Padma Bhushan recipient, and four others, Malcom Desai, Vanka Srinivas, Maganlal Balaji, all directors of M/s Vihaan Direct Selling (India) Pvt Ltd and Suresh Themiri, director Transview Enterprises. They all have approached the high court now in the QNet case.

"They posed as a marketing firm which would sell bio-discs, watches, herbal products, holiday packages, etc. They even claimed that by using the bio-disc, one can cure cancer and brain diseases," cops said. Some money has been transferred to Malayasia, Singapore and Hong Kong, too, cops added.

jitu moni

5 months ago
Mumbai: The city's economic offences wing (EOW) is now looking into allegations that several Bollywood celebrities campaigned for the cheat firm, QNet, through advetisements or by promoting the schemes of the self-proclaimed marketing firm.

Gurupreet Singh Anand, complainant in the Rs 1,000-crore QNet cheating case, on Wednesday said at least four Bollywood actors promoted the Ponzi schemes at different times in the QNet's promotional programs in United Kingdom and Malaysia. He has submitted a 23-page letter wherein he has attached the celebrities' pictures promoting the programs.

"I have submitted letter and all the relevant information to the EOW on May 12. I am hoping some action soon," Anand told TOI. He alleged that the money was laundered from India to Hong Kong and Malaysia.

Anand was speaking at a press conference where suddenly a group of QNet sympathisers appeared with "I trust QNet" placards.. They were later asked to leave the conference room.

jitu moni

6 months ago

Hello Everyone

The company Qnet is celebrating VCon from 3-7 May. As a present,yesterday late night, I posted lot of comments on numerous pics uploaded on Instagram. I also posted on VChief Pathmans account. Unfortunately, they kept deleting my posts and had to ultimately block me. If each one of us, Indians, takes to instagram and starts posting messages like me, then they would have to either block us or abandon their account, which is their money making tool. You can start with Qnetofficial,TheV, Pathmans account, etc with phrases like Pyramid Scheme, Qnetscam, Franchise Fraud, Police arrests, court cases,Cheating, etc. They cannot stop us if we all work as one unit.

Hope we all teach them a lesson and save other fellow Indians.

Jai Hind

jitu moni

6 months ago
CM Devendra Fadnavis has assured detailed inquiry into QNet: BJP
Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has promised to make a detailed inquiry of the alleged irregularities by the QNet multilevel marketing company and take action against the offenders, said BJP spokesperson Madhav Bhandari on Saturday. Former union minister P. Chidambaram’s wife was a legal counsellor with the company.

The QNet company, which was earlier known as Goldquest, has cheated 12 lakh people to the tune of thousands of crores of rupees. The court has rejected anticipatory bail to the accused in this case. When the CM was contacted about this, he promised to make a detailed inquiry and take action. If necessary, he said that the CBI’s help would also be taken, said Mr Bhandari.

The party spokesperson demanded that the role of former Union minister P. Chidambaram and his wife needs to be probed in this case. “Mr Chidambaram’s wife was a legal counsellor of the concerned company. Taking note of complaint registered by a lawyer from Chennai, the Central Vigilance Department handed over the case to the CBI. The complaint also has a mention of former Union minister Shashi Tharoor. However, the CBI did not investigate the matter during the tenure of Congress government at the Centre,” he alleged.

In Maharashtra, the wife of Gurpreet Singh Anand had in 2013 filed a complaint of fraud against the company. However, there was not much inquiry during the Congress-NCP regime. But since the court has denied anticipatory bail to other accused, including sportsman Michael Ferreira, the investigation can be expedited. Many sensational things are expected to come out in the investigation as the CM has promised to carry out a detailed probe in the case, said Mr Bhandari.

jitu moni

6 months ago

Mumbai police seeks Zee business help in probe of QNet

jitu moni

6 months ago
A group of investors in the QNet multi-level market case on Sunday gathered near Holy Family Church and marched as a protest and public awarness against ponzi schemes. The protesetors reached at the house of accused Padma Bhushan Michael feriera in the QNet cheating case. The protesters were holding placards that read, Michel Ferriera Shame Shame! and Ban QNet".

"We chose Bandra for protest since most of the accused in this scam reside here. We had informed the police in advance and stated that the peaceful march will be for awareness about such fraud schemes and protest against such ponzi schemes," said Gurpreet Singh Anand, the first complainant in the QNet cheating case. He added that thgough it was his birthday but he did not spend time at home and was busy in the awareness drive.
Similar protests were held in New Delhi, Bangalore and Hyderabad on Sunday. Last month a special MPIDA court rejected the anticipatory bail plea of Michael Ferreira, winner of the World Amateur Billiards Championship and a Padma Bhushan recipient, and four others in the QNet case. They have approached the Bombay High Court for anticipatory bail. Ferreira, 77, and others had applied for anticipatory bail in 2014.

jitu moni

6 months ago
The economic offences wing of Mumbai police, probing the multicrore Qnet scam, has issued notices to Indian Super League (ISL) officials to gather details about taking sponsorship from the tainted company.
Qnet had made celebratory association as the official direct selling partner of Goa Football Club (FC Goa) throughout the Indian Super League 2015 season, from October to December. FC Goa is a part of the ISL football league tournament. Sources said the police are trying to find out the how the proceeds of crime of a company under serious investigation, have been used to sponsor the team. Police are also baffled as how the Qnet managed to generate money when its accounts have been seized. "We have sum moned ISL officials to understand the amount and flow of money in their sponsorship from the Qnet company which had defrauded several investors," said an official.

jitu moni

6 months ago

The fight against the Qnet scam wheré more than 7000 crores of rupees has been laundered out to foreign shores from India has just got bigger.

The Saradha Scam which started mainly in Bengal looks relatively smaller compared to the Qnet scam which had defrauded people across various cities like Mumbai,Delhi,Bangalore,Hyderabad etc for over a period of 10 years.

To unite and protest against this MLM scam plaguing India, all victims,activists, are requested that they gather outside Holy Family church,Hill Road,Bandra West at 10.30 A.M. tomorrow 24th April,2016.

Various press and media agencies will be present to cover the event meet and address grievances to authorities.

The current government has taken note of the Qnet scam and matter will be taken up at upcoming Parliament session.

All Indians are cordially invited to support the cause and join in the protest. We need to end the scam by spreading awareness and recover the money taken away by the scamsters.

A request to all to please forward this message on Facebook, twitter and WhatsApp groups... Jai Hind


6 months ago

The Koramangala police along with officials of the Central Crime Branch busted the international multi-level marketing (MLM) company QNet and arrested five persons who were collecting lakhs of rupees from the gullible people promising foreign trips and higher returns.

Based on a complaint filed by a victim, Nitin Vaidya, police officials from Koramangala searched a coffee shop and arrested Sanjay Suri (32) and U. Nikil Santosh Kumar (29) from Telangana, Naren Sharma (28) from Himachal Pradesh, Susheel Shanghvi (34) from Mumbai and Prashath Kumar (34) from Kerala and recovered six mobile phones, a car, a bike and Rs. 11,510 from them.

According to the police the accused — engineering, MBA and MCA graduates, who were part of the QNet chain-link company based in Hong Kong — had lured Mr. Vaidya to invest Rs. 7.8 lakh promising a trip to London and also assured high rate of commission for getting more members into the company. However, Mr. Vaidya claimed that he was neither sent to the trip nor they returned his money following which he approached the police on April 10. On questioning, the accused confessed that they have also been cheated but they decided to get more members to the company’s fold to recover their amount. The police are investigating to track the prime accused, based outside the country.

Liquidity Issues in Global Fixed Income Markets

Liquidity issues in fixed income not only result in severe mispricing, they also spill over into other assets. If you cannot sell the bonds in your portfolio, you sell equities. If you cannot sell local currency bonds, you hedge by selling the currency. Obviously, these sell offs will creating cascading impact


The concept of liquidity is aptly named. The idea of liquid brings to mind the old saying that you do not miss the water till the well runs dry. It is the same with liquidity. It does not bother you until there is not any.


The general definition of liquidity is the ease with which someone can buy or sell something. Enlarge that definition a bit and it becomes the ability to trade an asset without greatly impacting the price of the asset you are trading.


Normally this is not a problem. Most markets tend to be very liquid. You just pull up your on line broker program. Pick an asset and push either the buy or sell button and like magic you get an email confirming the trade at or near what appears to be the market price.


This is supposed to be true one of the most liquid markets in the world, the US Treasury market. But two weeks ago there were some problems. On 15th October, almost a trillion dollars of US treasuries were bought and sold. This volume in itself is impressive, but what was more disturbing was the volatility. The yield on the 10-year treasuries dropped by thirty basis points in a matter of minutes. This extraordinary drop was not trigged by any important news event. Why it happened is unclear.


Many people credited the new American regulations. These are required by the post-crash financial legislation known as Dodd-Frank. Under that, law banks are restricted from keeping certain risky assets on their books. As a result, they have cut back their inventories of bonds by 75% since the pre-crash high of $235 billion. With smaller inventories, the banks are less able to act as market makers during times of stress.


This would be a reasonable argument except that the new law does not limit holdings of US Treasuries. Therefore, the panic selling has nothing to do with the legislation. One possible other culprit is the rise of more high speed trading with ultrafast computers. This is more likely because the programs used by the computers tend to be similar. So, when things start to go one way or the other, the computers act just like humans. They move in herds only much, much faster.


Another problem is that like computers asset managers also tend to act like a herd. This is not new. What is new is that they are using similar benchmarks and the largest funds have been increasing in size. So when the elephants move, they do it very fast and run over everything else.


The real problem with the fall in US Treasuries was that it happened in an extremely liquid market for bonds. A similar movement in other fixed income asset classes could be a real disaster. One example is Greek sovereign debt. Prices of the bonds of peripheral Europe have been rising all summer as their yields dropped. This reversed itself rapidly. Greek three-year bonds yielded 3.5% in July. By the middle of October, the yield had more than doubled to 7.6%. Liquidity evaporated and the bonds tanked.


Junk bonds were also hit. In the US, the average yield for junk bonds increased from 5.53% at the beginning of September to 6.61% today. During the past two months, there has not been any change in the economic picture. Thanks to Quantitative Easing (QE), default rates for junk are a mere 2.1% far below the historical average of 4.7%. The lack of liquidity in the European high yield market is worse than in the US. There are fewer pensions and insurance companies that can provide support and depth to the market.


Besides US and European junk bonds, the QE program drove many investors to both corporate and sovereign bonds in emerging markets. These include both those issued in the local currency and those issued in US dollars. Here again there are major problems with liquidity.


Many problems in emerging markets are due to foreign investors who rush in and then rush out again. The scale of the investments has exacerbated this situation. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that the top 20 global asset managers hold 30% of all emerging market bonds and equities. This is double the level 10 years ago.


This can result in major changes on smaller economic shocks. For example, the 2013 “taper tantrum” was a much smaller economic event (or even non-event) than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. However, the negative impact on yields in emerging markets was greater. The bid – ask spread for 10-year emerging markets government bonds has also doubled since 2010.


Emerging market governments have diligently tried to avoid these problems. They have attempted to issue long-term bonds in local currency to local investors. Sadly, they have failed. The share of foreign investors versus local investors has increased in recent years. The result is a systematic liquidity mismatch between potential portfolio outflows and the capacity of local institutions and market makers to absorb the outflows.


Liquidity issues in fixed income not only result in severe mispricing, they also spill over into other assets. If you cannot sell the bonds in your portfolio, you sell equities. If you cannot sell local currency bonds, you hedge by selling the currency. Obviously, these will create cascading effect.


The explosion of the equities markets on 31st October caused by turbo money printing in Japan might have indicated that the fears of liquidity are overblown. Except that at least on American exchanges. High yield bonds, preferred stocks, and emerging market debt hardly rose at all. While the Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF actually fell along with precious metals and other commodities. It also does not help the slowdown in Europe, many emerging markets or probably even Japan itself. Instead, it may merely reflect the potential volatility to come except the future may go another direction.


(William Gamble is president of Emerging Market Strategies. An international lawyer and economist, he developed his theories beginning with his first-hand experience and business dealings in the Russia starting in 1993. Mr Gamble holds two graduate law degrees. He was educated at Institute D'Etudes Politique, Trinity College, University of Miami School of Law, and University of Virginia Darden Graduate School of Business Administration. He was a member of the bar in three states, over four different federal courts and speaks four languages.)


We are listening!

Solve the equation and enter in the Captcha field.

To continue

Sign Up or Sign In


To continue

Sign Up or Sign In



The Scam
24 Year Of The Scam: The Perennial Bestseller, reads like a Thriller!
Moneylife Magazine
Fiercely independent and pro-consumer information on personal finance
Stockletters in 3 Flavours
Outstanding research that beats mutual funds year after year
MAS: Complete Online Financial Advisory
(Includes Moneylife Magazine and Lion Stockletter)