Companies & Sectors
ICICIdirect kept rosy target prices for Opto Circuits even as the stock was on a freefall

Over the past 12 months, ICICIdirect kept a ‘buy’ rating on Opto Circuits with unbelievable target prices even as two other major brokers were cautious and the stock was tumbling because of extremely stretched balance sheet. And when ICRA suspended its debt rating, Crisil lent its support

ICICIdirect, one of the country's largest brokerages, has kept a ‘buy’ rating on Opto Circuits (India) while the company’s shares are on a freefall for the last one year. On Wednesday morning, Opto Circuits hit Rs43.15, a fall of 8.6% over its previous close. The stock was over Rs200 April last year, a fall of 80%, even as ICICI direct maintained its ‘buy’ rating with extraordinary target prices.
 

Here is a short history of ICICIdirect’s atrocious (motivated?) call on Opto. On 8 February 2012, ICICIdirect recommended a ‘buy’ on Opto Circuits with a 12-month target price of Rs309 and a potential upside of 15%. At that time, Opto Circuits was trading at Rs268.

 

The report said, “New product launches and tapping new geographies for existing products augurs well for the company (Opto Circuits) to maintain the growth tempo. Commissioning of the Vizag and Malaysian facilities post approval will give further boost to the improved performance. Stretched working capital cycle, however, still remains a drag on the valuation. We expect sales, EBITDA and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 30%, 28% and 19%, respectively, during FY11-13E. We have valued the stock at 11x FY13E EPS of Rs28.1. We maintain our BUY recommendation.”

 

After the report, Opto Circuits hit Rs218.93 on 14 March 2012, and then the freefall started. But the ‘smart’ analysts at the ICICIdirect kept the faith, herding retail investors like sheep to the slaughterhouse. In a report as late as 19 November 2012, it again revised its price target to Rs181 (as against the market price of Rs108 at that time) with a potential upside of 68% and target period of 15-18 months.

 

“After showing an improvement in back-to-back quarters (Q4 & Q1) the working capital cycle once again slipped, vindicating market fears that have weighed on the stock price (of Opto Circuits) for quite some time. On the bright side, new product launches in various geographies are expected to keep the growth momentum going. The shift of production to the confined three locations is expected to improve the operating leverage. However, this is likely to take some time. We have reduced our FY14E EPS to Rs28.5 from Rs25.9 on account of some revenue slippages and reduced the PE multiple by one notch to reflect concerns about WC cycle. We value the stock at Rs181, 8x FY14E EPS of Rs25.9 and maintain BUY rating with a lightweight bias,” the research report said.

 

As www.alphaideas.in, a must-read blog on Indian stocks, said, over the past one year, ICICIDirect revised its price target on Opto Circuits but kept its rating as ‘buy’. “The price of Opto Circuits kept on falling and Dalal Street’s finest kept revising their target price downwards in sync with the falling stock price. The stock is now trading around Rs50. This is around 16% of the original target price set one year back by the helpful folks at ICICI direct!”

 

Normally, brokerages are reluctant to put a stock on ‘hold’, and rarely on sell. But even as ICICIdirect was gung-ho about the stock, Edelweiss Securities downgraded Opto Circuits to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ in a report on 16 August 2012, due to the company’s stressed balance sheet and concerns about free cash flow. “We believe that though the company has been able to post topline growth and improve margin, the bigger worry is the stressed balance sheet. Though the stock is trading at cheap valuation we await its annual report for FY11-12 to get more clarity on how the financials are shaping up. Hence, we downgrade to ‘HOLD’ with revised target price of Rs159,” the report had said. The CMP of Opto Circuits at that time was Rs144. A hold is good as sell in brokerage parlance, since 90% of stocks a broking company covers are a ‘buy’.

 

Motilal Oswal Securities, in its report on 17 August 2012, maintained its ‘neutral’ rating on Opto Circuits with a target price of Rs173. It said, “...large accumulated goodwill in the books (on account of past acquisitions), high working capital requirements leading to high debt, inadequate free cash flow generation remain our major concerns (for Opto Circuits). Potential fund raising in Eurocor could dilute earnings, with the commensurate benefits from the equity dilution accruing only over the long-term (since the funds are likely to be utilized for financing clinical trials for key products which could be time-consuming). Based on our revised EPS estimates, the stock trades at 6.4x FY13E and 5.7x FY14E EPS. We maintain Neutral with target price of Rs173 (7x FY14E EPS),” the brokerage had said.

 

This clearly raises doubts about serious malfeasance by ICICIdirect, something that the market regulator should investigate but most likely will ignore.

 

Rent a rating?

During the same period, ratings agency ICRA, an associate of Moody’s, suspended its rating assigned to the Rs538 crore fund based facilities of Opto Circuits. “The rating revision takes into account Opto’s stretched liquidity position on account of continued high working capital intensity in 2011-12 resulting from high receivable period, and significant inventory levels as well as advances to suppliers. Moreover, high capital expenditure and dividend payout resulted in negative free cash flows. Given the absence of the requisite information from the company, ICRA has suspended the rating assigned to Opto Circuits’ Rs538 crore line of credit,” the ratings agency had said in its August 2012 report.

 

However, Opto Circuits’ management in a meeting with MOSL analysts clarified that there was no slippage in debt servicing except for a few days delay for one payment resulting out of exchange rate fluctuations. The management also indicated that it had disengaged ICRA’s services in July 2012 and appointed CRISIL as its new ratings agency, MOSL said in its report. ICRA’s action should have been a red flag for CRISIL and ICICIdirect, but presumably both the rating agency and the brokerage were firmly focused on their bottomline alone.

 

For the quarter to end-December, Opto Circuits reported a net profit of Rs113.3 crore compared with Rs125.1 crore, same period last year. During the December quarter, the company said, its total revenues rose to Rs623.1 crore from Rs607 crore a year ago period.

 

Speaking with a TV channel, after the results, Vinod Ramnani, chairman and managing director of Opto Circuits, had said that there are working capital problems and the company is looking at solutions.

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COMMENTS

sreekanth

4 years ago

Absolutely Incomplete article. I don't understand what the author is trying to convey here? Are you bearish on it just because the share price has decreased? OR are you saying one should be bearish because the share price has decreased? Share price is a result of herd or a result of problems. Remember the ICICI bank share price decrease during Lehman 1.0 crisis? All I understand is a mudslinging game on few brokerages. If the analyst have something solid then he should give the analysis on why and how the other analysts are wrong. As W Buffet often says, "In the business world, the rear view mirror is always clearer than the wind-shield." The ability of an analyst is seen in analysing the wind-shield not the rear view.

Wilfred DSilva

4 years ago

THANK YOU ML

wilfred

Ramesh Poapt

4 years ago

Great ML! Please... continue to expose such matters in the best interest of retail investors.

More occasions to eat out; QSR growth potential good, says Rabobank

Rapid change in food consumption habits in India has spurred domestic and foreign quick service restaurant (QSR) chains to implement aggressive expansion plans. According to a Rabobank report, this growth is set to accelerate

“QSRs (Quick Service Restaurants) will be a double-digit growth story in India in the medium- to long-term, as food consumption habits in India are changing fast,” commented Rabobank India Head F&A Research & Advisory (FAR), Asitava Sen.

 

According to the Rabobank report, “A younger population, higher rate of urbanisation, larger disposable incomes, higher protein consumption, increased participation of women in the workforce and exposure to western lifestyles are leading to the experimentation with, and adoption of, new dietary habits and more occasions to eat out for all levels of society”.

 

“As a result, we believe the time is right for both global and Indian QSR chains and their supply chain partners to expand in India. This growth will support the development of a new generation of Indian food processors and supply chain partners. We believe that there is significant potential for commissaries to establish themselves as a link between QSRs and food producers and processors”, Sen added.

 

To sustain the growth, while focusing on quality and profits, QSRs will have to build collaborative and dedicated supply chains from the ground up—connecting local business partners, high quality vendors, the right commissaries and state-wide or nation-wide supply chain solution providers.

 

Total industry size for the Indian foodservice sector was Rs460 billion ($8.6 billion) in 2011 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% until 2015. Out of this, the QSR segment is worth Rs33 billion ($600 million) and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% over the same period.

 

At present, according to the National Restaurants Association of India, 50% of the consumers are eating out at least once every three months, and this shift is epitomised by the growing presence of QSR concepts, including many global QSR players.

 

An efficient supply chain will help provide standard product quality to customers across stores, but supply fragmentation in India is significant, creating quality issues at the ‘back-end’. Limited modern storage and transportation infrastructure adds to the problem, which is even more pronounced in perishable products. As such, capital investments in the upstream and midstream processing parts of the supply chain are critical, especially since food production, processing and preparation on a large scale are just beginning in India.

 

Relationships between QSRs and their channel partners have worked well in categories such as cheese, poultry and frozen foods in India and there is room for such partnerships to flourish in other key categories of commodities and processed foods.

 

QSR players prefer to have multiple supplier options to diversify the risk and help in price negotiations. In segments such as poultry, cheese and French fries there are only a few processors currently, but QSRs may look at either developing small players as vendor partners or even consider backward integration into the business.

User

Nifty, Sensex still under pressure: Wednesday Closing Report

As we suggested yesterday, the market staged a minor rally today. The Nifty remains oversold and the weak rally may continue but there will be sellers at higher levels

 
The market settled higher on hopes that the government will be able to rein in the current account deficit, as pointed out in the Economic Survey pointed out today. As we suggested yesterday, the market staged a minor rally today. The Nifty remains oversold and the weak rally may continue but there will be sellers at higher levels. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) saw a higher volume of 76.67 crore shares, a day ahead of the expiry of the February Futures and Options derivatives contract and advance-decline ratio of 839:700.
 
The market opened in the positive tracking firm global cues. Markets in the US settled higher overnight as Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke supported the bonds buying initiative and sales of new homes rose more-than-expected in December. The Asian pack, excluding the Nikkei 225, was trading higher on the back of the optimism from the US. Back home, investors are looking forward to the Economic Survey, which will be tabled by finance minister P Chidambaram in Parliament later in the day.
 
The Nifty resumed trade 24 points higher at 5,785 and the Sensex started off at 19,090, a rise of 75 points over its previous close. Selling pressure in early trade led the benchmarks into the red at around 10.30am. The Nifty fell to 5,750 and the Sensex declined to 18,998 at their lows.
 
Buying in select stocks soon helped the market recover from its lows. The Economic Survey said that the economy is likely to grow at 6.1%-6.7% in the fiscal 2013-14. However, the Survey is apprehensive about the ongoing slowdown current account deficit. It is optimistic of bringing down inflation to 6.2%-6.6% by March.
 
Across-the-board buying supported saw all sectoral indices, except BSE IT and BSE TECk, trading in the positive in post-noon trade. gains in the European markets also boosted sentiments back home.
 
While the Sensex hit its high at around 2.15pm with the benchmark at 19,213, the Nifty stood at 5,818 at its high at around 2.45pm. However, a minor bout of profit taking at the highs led the indices lower at the close of trade.
 
The Nifty gained 36 points (0.62%) at 5,797 and the Sensex climbed 137 points (0.72%) to end the session at 19,152.
 
Among the broader indices, the BSE Mid-cap index climbed 0.74% and the BSE Small-cap index rose 0.20%.
 
The top sectoral gainers were BSE Capital Goods (up 2.41%); BSE Realty (up 2.12%); BSE Oil & Gas (up 1.17%); BSE Metal (up 1.11%) and BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (up 1.10%). BSE IT (down 0.96%); BSE TECk (down 0.23%) and BSE Healthcare (down 0.04%) ended up as losers.
 
Twenty two of the 30 stocks on the Sensex closed in the positive. The main gainers were Bharti Airtel (up 3.29%); Larsen & Toubro (up 3.16%); Mahindra & Mahindra (up 3.03%); ONGC (up 2.91%) and Bajaj Auto (up 2.23%). The major losers were GAIL India (down 1.72%); Infosys (down 1.56%); Tata Motors (down 1.11%); Coal India (down 1.08%) and Hero MotoCorp (down 1.01%).
 
The top two A Group gainers on the BSE were—Jet Airways India (up 19.27%) and Suzlon Energy (up 13.85%).
The top two A Group losers on the BSE were—Core Education Technologies (down 46.09) and Opto Circuits (down 6.74%).
 
The top two B Group gainers on the BSE were—Ankit Metal (up 19.77%) and Surat Textile Mills (up 19.55%).
The top two B Group losers on the BSE were—Onelife Capital Advisors (down 20%) and PG Electroplast (down 19.99%).
 
Of the 50 stocks on the Nifty, 28 ended in the green. The key gainers were Jaiprakash Associates (up 5.85%); M&M (up 3.38%); DLF (up 3.14%); Bharti Airtel (up 3.09%) and L&T (up 2.95%). The top losers were Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 4.39%); Power Grid Corporation (down 1.98%); Siemens (down 1.84%); GAIL India (down 1.82%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 1.64%).
 
Markets in Asia settled mostly higher on the optimism from the US. The Nikkei 225 closed lower as the strengthening yen dented the outlook for exporters.
 
The Shanghai Composite advanced 0.87%; the Hang Seng gained 0.25%; The Jakarta Composite climbed 1.14%; the Straits Times gained 0.21%; the Seoul Composite added 0.20% and the Taiwan Weighted settled 0.22% higher. Among the losers, the KLSE Composite closed flat, down 0.04 points and the Nikkei 225 dropped 1.27%.
 
At the time of writing, the key markets in Europe were trading up between 0.11% and 0.19% and the US stock futures were mixed with a negative bias.
 
Back home, foreign institutional investors were net buyers of shares amounting to Rs74.68 crore on Tuesday whereas domestic institutional investors were net sellers of equities aggregating Rs160.61 crore.
 
Etihad Airways on Wednesday said it has paid $70 million to buy three slots of the Naresh Goyal-promoted Jet Airways at Heathrow airport in London.  The deal is part of a sale and lease back agreement signed on Tuesday. However, Jet will continue to operate flights to London utilising these slots. Jet Airways jumped 20% to settle at Rs539.15 on the NSE.
 
Pharmaceutical major Jubilant Life Sciences said the US health regulator has issued a warning letter for violation of manufacturing norms at its facility in Canada. The USFDA had specified in its letter that until all corrections have been completed, it may withhold approval of new applications or supplements listing JHS as the drug product manufacturer. The stock declined 5.16% to close at Rs176.30 on the NSE.
 
Private sector shipbuilder ABG Shipyard’s largest promoter entity, ABG International, today picked up 3.27 lakh shares of the company for Rs10.13 crore through open market transaction. ABG Shipyard settled 1.15% lower at Rs314 on the NSE.
 

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