HSBC India manufacturing PMI jumps to 17-month high

Business conditions in the Indian manufacturing sector improved for the ninth consecutive month in July, as companies scaled up production in response to robust levels of demand, the HSBC survey says


India’s manufacturing sector growth jumped to 17-month high in July, driven by flood of new orders from both domestic and overseas companies due to post-election boost in sentiments, an HSBC survey said.


The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of factory production, rose to 53.0 in July, up from 51.5 in June, signalling an improvement in business conditions.


A flood of new orders from both domestic and external sources has led to a surge in activity, pushing the manufacturing PMI to a 17-month high,” HSBC Co-Head of Asian Economic Research, Frederic Neumann, said, adding that all monitored categories witnessed a rise in output and order flows.


A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth while a lower reading means contraction.


Business conditions in Indian manufacturing sector improved for the ninth consecutive month in July, as companies scaled up production in response to robust levels of demand.


Commenting on the survey report, Nomura said, the PMI suggest that India's manufacture sector is on solid footing. "The PMI data, especially the strong activity level and the domestic demand-led pickup in order inflows, indicate that the rise in manufacturing activity over the last few months is on a solid footing and likely to gain momentum in coming months. Although a below-normal monsoon may impede agricultural production this year, we expect real GDP growth to rise to 5.0% y-o-y in FY15 from 4.7% in FY14 on a strong pickup in the manufacturing sector with upside risks to our baseline forecast. On the inflation front, data indicate that manufactured prices remain in check. However, if  input cost pressures sustain, output prices could increase somewhat (WPI manufactured) in coming months," it said in a note.


Striking a quick word of caution, HSBC said input price pressures have risen sharply and supply side constraints still limit the pace with which growth can recover without stoking inflation.


The speed of the recovery has also lifted price pressures, with input prices rising steeply. This means that the RBI may not cheer as loudly as the rest of us,” Neumann said.


Nomura, in the note said, "A growth recovery appears to be underway as manufacturing output has picked up and both the rise in domestic demand and the higher order-inventory ratio bode well for future output growth. Output prices remain in check, but with margins under pressure there are risks of manufactured output prices rising in coming months".


The HSBC report added that rains have progressively improved, reducing the severity of the drought, and the new government has been proactive in addressing potential price risks.


These two factors provide the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with enough comfort to stay on hold next week. But, the battle against inflation is not over, price indicators within the PMI serve as a reminder of this fact. The speed of the growth recovery needs to be monitored, if it is too quick it could be inflationary,” HSBC said.


RBI’s next credit policy review is scheduled on 5th August.


According to official figures, retail inflation in June touched its lowest mark at 7.31% since January 2012 and the wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation slid to four-month low of 5.43%, mainly due to easing vegetables prices.






3 years ago

The PMI jumping up to 53 shows an expansion in the economy.After many months of contraction this is good news.The CPI and the WPI have come down which signals a downtrend in inflation.However it needs to be seen if this trend continues.

Malin landslide: Death toll rises to 51, hope for survivors fading

So far, eight injured persons have been rescued and they are being treated at nearby hospitals. The deceased include, 22 women, 23 men and six children


The death toll in the Malin village landslide disaster has climbed to 51 with recovery of ten more bodies since Thursday night. The deceased included 22 women, 23 men and six children, an official at the Pune District control room said.


So far, eight injured persons have been rescued and they were being treated at nearby hospitals, he said.


Rescuers comprising over 300 personnel of National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) continued to look for survivors under the huge mound of debris as signs of life slowly dimmed 48 hours after the village in Ambegaon taluka was flattened in the fury of nature.


Intermittent rains and the difficult hilly terrain made the rescue and relief operation difficult as NDRF jawans moved JCBs and dumpers cautiously to ensure safety of prospective survivors under mud and stone debris of the hill that caved-in on Wednesday morning.


As many as 44 houses were crushed under the rubble in the mishap trapping about 160 residents of the village.


A mass cremation of several victims was performed on Thursday at the village by their grieving relatives.


Maharashtra's Relief and Rehabilitation Minister Patangrao Kadam is expected to hold a meeting of district officials to chalk out a plan for rehabilitation of the affected population of Malin.


Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh had Thursday visited Malin village, the scene of the tragedy and announced an assistance of Rs2 lakh to the next of kin of each of the deceased from PM Relief Fund.


Gaza truce: Israel, Hamas agree to a 72-hour ceasefire

Delegations from both Israel and Palestine are going to Cairo for negotiations with the Egyptian government, at the invitation of Egypt, aimed at reaching a durable truce


Israel and Hamas on Friday agreed to an unconditional 72-hour ceasefire in Gaza. The US has said the deal to be negotiated in Cairo by Israeli and Palestinians is an opportunity to find a long-term solution to end the deadly 25-day conflict that has claimed over 1,500 lives.


A joint statement issued by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and US Secretary of State John Kerry said that the UN representative in Jerusalem, Special Coordinator Robert Serry, has "received assurances" that all parties have agreed to an unconditional humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.


The ceasefire will commence at 0500 GMT (8 AM local time) Friday and will last for 72 hours unless extended. During this time the forces on the ground will remain in place.


Israeli and Palestinian delegations will immediately go to Cairo for negotiations with the Egyptian government, at the invitation of Egypt, aimed at reaching a durable truce. The two sides will raise all issues of concern in these talks.


"We urge all parties to act with restraint until this humanitarian ceasefire begins, and to fully abide by their commitments during the ceasefire," the statement said.


The ceasefire is "critical to giving innocent civilians a much-needed reprieve from violence," it said.


Egypt has invited Israel and the Palestinian Authority to send delegates to Cairo for truce talks, after the 72-hour ceasefire in Gaza was announced.


"Egypt emphasises the importance of both sides committing to the ceasefire so the negotiations can take place in a favourable atmosphere," the Egyptian foreign ministry said in a statement.


The delegations are expected to start arriving in Cairo later today.


Since Israel began its offensive in Gaza on 8th July at least 1,450 Palestinians have been killed, along with 61 Israeli soldiers and three Israeli civilians.


"This is not a time for congratulations and joy, or anything except a serious determination, a focus by everybody to try to figure out the road ahead. This is a respite. It's a moment of opportunity, not an end; it's not a solution. It's the opportunity to find the solution," Kerry, who fell short of winning a truce in Cairo last week, said.


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