Nifty has to break the range of 5,800 and 5,950 for a new trend to emerge. The bias is negative.
Today on the day of the expiry of the futures and options, the market witnessed a highly volatile session. On a higher volume on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of 66.63 crore shares, the Nifty closed 8 points higher. The market opened in the positive and after a brief session in the negative at the beginning, the indices traded above yesterday close. The Sensex opened at 19,854 and moved up to 19,827 from 19,997 and closed at 19,894 (up 38 points or 0.19%) while the Nifty which opened at 5,873 move between the range of 5,864 and 5,918 and closed 5,882 (up 8 points or 0.14%).
The top five gainers among the other indices on the NSE were Pharma (0.86%); FMCG (0.61%); Metal (0.50%); Finance (0.47%) and Infra (0.32%) while the top five losers were Energy (0.87%); Realty (0.70%); PSU Bank (0.64%); MNC (0.42%) and Dividend Opportunities (0.37%).
Of the 50 stocks on the Nifty, 22 ended in the green. The top five gainers were BHEL (5.59%); Tata Steel (3.50%); Jaiprakash Associates (3.35%); Coal India (2.85%) and Sun Pharma (2.28%). The top five losers were Jindal Steel (3.27%); Ambuja Cements (2.59%); PNB (2.22%); Gail (1.94%) and Reliance Infrastructure (1.62%).
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday relaxed the minimum maturity tenure for banks' foreign currency borrowings' to one year from three years, in order to use the central bank's swap facility which was set up to support the ailing rupee. The RBI, however, said the relaxation is only applicable while the swap window remains open until November 30. Rupee traded at 62.18/19 versus its close of 62.44/45 on Wednesday and close to the day's high of 62.1225.
The risk of a sovereign downgrade risk has only intensified after international rating agency Moody’s downgraded State Bank of India’s senior debt and local currency deposit to ‘Baa3’, and now has a negative outlook. The market is viewing this as a proxy for the sovereign rating. The State Bank of India and group entities account for 25% of the country’s banking system.
India Ratings & Research said that the sharp slide in the rupee against the dollar would cause the oil subsidiary bill to swell and push the fiscal deficit to over 5% of gross domestic product as against the government’s target of 4.8%. The rating agency said the rupee may appreciate to 59-61/USD by end-FY14. In all likelihood, oil subsidy in FY14 will be higher than the budgeted amount of FY14.
US indices ended in the negative on Wednesday. US new home sales jump 7.9% in August to 421,000, biggest one-month gain since January. That comes after sales plunged 14.1% in July to a 390,000 annual rate. New-homes sales were 12.6% higher in August than a year ago. The pace remains well below the 700,000 consistent with a healthy market.
Asian indices were a mixed bag. Nikkei 225, top gainer, 1.22% while the Shanghai Composite, top loser, down 1.94%.
European indices were trading mostly in the negative while the US Futures were trading in the green.
For Nifty to arrest its downtrend, Nifty has to close above 5907
Except for a small positive move, which happened yesterday, the market fell for the third day, ahead of the expiry of the futures and options which is tomorrow. Except for a little while when the indices today moved in the green, the benchmarks were pulled down in to the negative and stayed there till the end of the session.
The Sensex and the Nifty, for the first time after three trading session, opened in the positive. The Sensex opened at 19,947 and immediately hit its daily high of 19,978 while the Nifty opened at 5,902 and hit a high of 5,911. In the noon session the indices hit their lows after which they made smart recovery. The Sensex hit a low of 19,659 and closed at 19,856 (down 64 points or 0.32%). The Nifty hit a low of 5,811 and closed at 5,874 (down 19 points or 0.32%). The National Stock Exchange (NSE) recorded a volume of 59.53 crore shares.
Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas Dr M Veerappa Moily on Tuesday, 24 September 2013, ruled out any steep increase in diesel and cooking-fuel prices. The government's decision on Tuesday, 24 September 2013, not to raise fuel prices has sparked concerns about the government's fiscal deficit. Moily asked the people of India to conserve petroleum products to help the government's finances and reduce the country's oil-import bill.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs on Tuesday approved the proposal of the ministry of petroleum and natural gas on the policy on exploration and exploitation of shale gas and oil by National Oil Companies (NOCs) on acreages under the nomination regime. This policy will allow NOCs to carry out exploration and exploitation of unconventional hydro-carbon resources particularly, shale gas and oil in their already awarded onland petroleum exploration license/petroleum mining lease acreages under the nomination regime.
Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs on Tuesday approved the methodology for auctioning coal blocks, enabling the government to allot coal mining licences through competitive bidding to private companies.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh constituted the 7th Pay Commission today. The new pay scale recommended by the Pay Commission will be implemented from 1 January 2016.
The government is formulating a scheme to encourage technological acquisition and R&D activities in the capital goods sector to help reduce dependence on imports of such goods.
US indices had a mixed performance on Tuesday. The drop in consumer confidence and worries over a Washington debt-ceiling fight outweighed a rise in home prices and easing concerns over the Middle East.
Investors are worried about Washington’s new budget for the fiscal year that starts on 1 October 2013 and, more importantly, over whether to lift the debt ceiling. Ratings firm Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday said a failure by the US government to raise the country's debt limit would result in a worse outcome for financial markets than a government shutdown.
The Conference Board's index of US consumer confidence slumped in September to a four-month low and a separate report showed a gauge of manufacturing in the region covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond shrank in September. The Case-Shiller report on US home prices showed prices rose in July, but at a slower pace.
US President Barack Obama on Tuesday said that the US is committed to finding diplomatic solutions for the Syria conflict and for the ongoing dispute with Iran over its nuclear program.
Except for Hang Seng (up 0.13%) and NZSE 50 (up 1.15%) all the other Asian indices ended in the negative. Jakarta Composite, top loser, down 1.20%.
European indices were trading mostly in the red. US indices too were trading in the negative.
Intraday rallies led to more selling, as suggested yesterday. A decline may be on the cards, either right away or after a short rally
On almost the same volume as Monday on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the Nifty tried moving higher and closed flat today. The NSE recorded a volume of 53.85 crore shares. The Sensex opened at 19,820 while the Nifty opened at 5,855. The indices shot up immediately thereafter hit their day’s high in the morning session. The Sensex moved up from 19,783 to 20,050 during the day and closed at 19,920 (up 19 points or 0.10%). The Nifty moved up from 5,855 to 5,938 during the day and closed at 5,892 (up 3 points or 0.05%).
The top five gainers among the other indices on the NSE were Auto (1.17%); Media (1.09%); Infra (0.60%); Nifty Midcap 50 (0.53%) and Consumption (0.49%) while the top five losers were Metal (1.13%); PSU Bank (0.78%); IT (0.39%); Bank Nifty (0.35%) and Commodities (0.30%).
Of the 50 stocks on the Nifty, 23 ended in the green. The top five gainers were Bajaj Auto (2.80%); Tata Power (2.72%); NTPC (2.03%); LT (1.97%) and Cipla (1.68%). The top five losers were Hindalco (3.65%); BPCL (2.60%); Coal India (2.48%); Jindal Steel (2.04%) and ACC (1.90%).
The government has kept the borrowing target for the fiscal year through March 2014 unchanged at Rs5.79 lakh crore ($92.49 billion), economic affairs secretary Arvind Mayaram said on Monday after a meeting between government and central bank officials to finalize the borrowing plan for the second half of the fiscal year. The government will raise Rs3.44 lakh crore by the end of September. That will be Rs5,000-crore short of the target it had initially set for the first half of the fiscal year, Mayaram said.
Mayaram said that the government would cut spending if revenue falls short of the budget projections, but won't breach the full-year fiscal-deficit target—4.8% of gross domestic product for this year. The gap was 4.9% last fiscal year.
Ratings agency Fitch downgraded some ratings for Indian Bank, Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda on expectations of a further deterioration in asset quality and a sharp deceleration on economic growth.
US indices fell on Monday after Fed Bank of New York President William Dudley suggested the pace of QE could be reduced later this year. Addressing business leaders in New York Monday morning, Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the economy is losing some steam.
Except for NZSE 50 (up 0.20%) and Taiwan Weighted (up 0.08%) all the other indices closed in the negative. Jakarta Composite, top loser, was down 2.25%.
European indices were trading in the positive. US Futures were trading marginally lower.
German business confidence rose for a fifth straight month in September 2013. The Ifo business-climate index rose to 107.7 from a revised figure of 107.6 in August. "Although companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favorably, their business expectations were once again more optimistic. The German economy made a confident start to the autumn," Kai Carstensen, director at Ifo, said in the release.