Nifty may head towards 8,700 as long it stays above 8,400
We had mentioned in the previous week’s closing report that NSE’s CNX Nifty and S&P BSE Sensex may head lower and a fall below 8,400 in Nifty would lead to a decline. The Indian stock market started falling from Monday onwards and for the next two days, recorded steep losses. Nifty hit a low of 8,337 during the week. However, on Friday, the benchmark indices rebounded sharply and erased a large part of the losses. On a weekly basis, the market indices recorded minor losses and is set to resume its uptrend.
On Monday, the market was higher in the morning the initial gains were wiped-out, as investors became anxious over the upcoming key economic data points of Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP). Analysts added that the markets were upset over the logjam in the Parliament. The monsoon session of the Parliament ends on 13th August with the fate of key legislations like the GST (goods and services) or the Land bill hanging in the balance.
A sudden devaluation of the Chinese yuan dampened investor sentiments on Tuesday leading to S&P BSE Sensex closing 235 points in the red. The wider 50-scrip Nifty of the NSE closed lower by 63.25 points or 0.74% at 8,462.35 points. China's central bank devalued the yuan by 2%. This was the biggest devaluation in the Chinese currency since 1994. The move has strengthened the US dollar value, which has negatively impacted major world currencies including the Indian rupee.
On Wednesday, the negative global and local cues just ahead of the release of key economic data points unnerved investors, forcing the 30-stock Sensex to plunge 354 points in the day's trade. The wider 50-scrip Nifty also closed deep in the red. It ended 113 points or 1.33% down at 8,349.45 points.
The Indian equity markets closed flat on Thursday, as the initial gains made on the back of positive macro-economic data diminished on account of the government's inability to pass key economic legislations on the last day of the monsoon session. Nevertheless, after three days of continued losses, Sensex closed 37 points up. The index had lost a total of 724 points during the first three trading days of the week. Investors were seen hopeful of a rate-cut based on healthy macro-economic data points which were released late on Wednesday. The macro-economic data points showed a fall in India's annual retail inflation rate to 3.78% in July and a rise in the factory output to 3.8% in June. There were however, negative cues such as the impasse over GST Bill, and devaluation of the Chinese yuan coupled with a depreciating rupee to influence investor sentiments.
On Friday, the Indian stock market was on a tear from the morning, with hopes of a rate cut sometime soon. We expect the indices to continue to rally over next week.
Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were: